Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, EverBank Field. TV: CBS, Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots.

SERIES HISTORY: 10th regular-season meeting. Jaguars lead the series, 5-4. Jacksonville has won three of the last four meetings and five of seven. Included in that stretch, the Jaguars are 3-1 at EverBank Field. The teams have played twice in the last eight years. The last home win by the Jaguars was 24-17 in 2010. All three of the Jaguars' home wins have been by a touchdown or less.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

After perhaps the best performance of his 10-game career, Broncos QB Trevor Siemian will be out of Sunday's game at the Jacksonville Jaguars with a sprained foot and rookie Paxton Lynch will get his second start.

When Siemian injured a shoulder, Lynch started in Week 5 and looked tentative at times under a furious Atlanta pass rush. He didn't look comfortable until the fourth quarter, when the Falcons led 23-6 and played soft zone coverages that conceded underneath routes.

The defending Super Bowl champion Broncos would not be in the playoffs if the season ended now. But there isn't an air of desperation around the team just yet. This is the first time they have been out of a playoff position so late in the season since 2011, when Tim Tebow was in the midst of leading a series of comebacks that allowed the Broncos to eke out an AFC West title with a modest 8-8 record.

"We can't afford to lose this game, period," said outside linebacker Shane Ray. "We couldn't afford to lose last week's game and we did, so I just think the mentality from here on out is (that) we still control our destiny."

Siemian wore a walking boot all week as coach Gary Kubiak held out hope he could start, even without practicing as he did earlier this year. Siemian was injured during the first possession of overtime in the Broncos' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs. He stayed in the game and directed the Broncos to the Kansas City 44 on their next series, from which point Brandon McManus missed a 62-yard field-goal attempt that gave the Chiefs the football in Denver territory, opening the door to their win.

Meanwhile, Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, who played with an injured shoulder against Buffalo last week, was a full participant starting Wednesday, WR Allen Hurns (hamstring) and RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) were listed as out on the and TE Julius thimas (back) was doubtful on the Friday injury report.

--Broncos OLB Von Miller vs. Jaguars RT Jermey Parnell. Miller could be in for a great game going against Parnell. Miller is having his best NFL season and leads the NFL in sacks (12.5) and total QB pressures following a three-sack, 10-pressure, 10-tackle game against Kansas City last Sunday. He is approaching his career best of 18.5 sacks (2012) and has 72.5 sacks in his six-year career. Parnell struggled with speed rushers this season, often letting ends or linebackers get by him for sacks. How well he handles Miller in this game could spell how successful the Jaguars do offensively.

--Broncos WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders vs. Jaguars CBs Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara. Thomas and Sanders are two of the league's best, both ranking in the top 10 for receptions and yards. The two seventh-year players are each heading for another 1,000-yard season in receiving. Thomas has done so four straight years while Sanders has topped that mark in the last two seasons. The Jaguars will counter with Ramsey and Amukamara, both having solid seasons. They are the leaders of a secondary that has allowed just over 204 passing yards a game, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. The Jags have permitted just 15 touchdowns through the air, just over one per game. Look for Jacksonville to play a lot of nickel defense, which allows Aaron Colvin to help out in coverage.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT:

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: WR Bennie Fowler (knee), RB Andy Janovich (ankle), LS Casey Kreiter (calf), QB Trevor Siemian (foot)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: WR Rashad Greene (achilles), WR Allen Hurns (hamstring), RB Chris Ivory (hamstring), DE Jared Odrick (shoulder), TE Julius Thomas (back)

--Questionable: DE Yannick Ngakoue (ankle)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Broncos TE A.J. Derby. Although he has just six receptions in three games as a Bronco, all have come on third downs and four have gone for first downs. Another set up Trevor Siemian for a successful fourth-and-1 sneak. A former college quarterback, Derby read defenses to find vacant spots in short-to-intermediate coverage, and he has clearly supplanted 2015 draft pick Jeff Heuerman as the No. 2 tight end behind starter Virgil Green.

FAST FACTS:

Broncos rookie RB DeVontae Booker has 189 yards from scrimmage in the last two games.

Denver LB Von Miller tied career highs with 10 tackles and three sacks last week and has 17.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles and an interception in the last 13 games. He leads the NFL with 12.5 sacks.

Jags QB Blake Bortles shoots for a sixth consecutive game with at least two TD passes.

Jags rookie DE Yannick Nngakoue seeks a sack in a third consecutive game. He leads the NFL rookies with six sacks and is one of only two NFL players (Khalil Mack) with at least six sacks, three forced fumbles and an interception.

PREDICTION:

The Broncos are a little beat up after one of the wildest games in recent NFL history (OT loss to Chiefs Sunday night), but the Jaguars may be even more impacted by injuries -- and they were in trouble with a healthy roster. Still staying with Broncos, but lowering offensive expectations.

OUR PICK: Broncos, 28-12.

--Frank Cooney