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Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers? Debating the best DFS plays for Week 13

Is a stack of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones the best way to find DFS success in Week 13? Todd Kirkland/Icon Sportswire

Once you've identified your key lineup building blocks on DraftKings and FanDuel, we are here to help with close calls throughout the rest of your daily fantasy football lineup.

ESPN Fantasy analysts Ken Daube and Jim McCormick comb through daily fantasy pricing each week to determine assets in the same pricing tiers at quarterback, running back, receiver and flex that you might want to play or pass on. In order to discuss similarly priced commodities, we focus on players eligible at the same positions within $500 of one another on one of the main fantasy platforms.

Let the healthy DFS debates begin!

Quarterback

Daube's Play: Matt Ryan ($6,800 DK; $8,600 FD)

The nickname Matty Ice sure didn’t seem warranted during earlier portions of his career, but Ryan is certainly earning that moniker this season. Ryan has attempted more passes under pressure than all but five other quarterbacks, yet he ranks second overall with a 53 percent completion rate on those pressured throws. The pressure clearly doesn’t negatively affect Ryan; in fact, he’s thrown just one interception in his 100 pressured attempts. His 1 percent interception rate under pressure is better than his 1.8 percent without pressure.

Ryan’s performance under pressure is extremely relevant because of the impact that Justin Houston’s return has had on the Kansas City Chiefs. With Houston on the field, the Chiefs are pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 44 percent of dropbacks, compared to just 25 percent without him. Ryan’s proficiency in this area basically makes that additional pressure irrelevant, which translates to his essentially facing the Chiefs defense without Houston. That defense permitted the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, making Ryan a solid value despite his higher salary.

McCormick's Play: Aaron Rodgers ($6,700 DK; $8,500 FD)

Rodgers has averaged 44.6 pass attempts per game since the start of Week 7, just shy of the 45.4-pass clip that Matthew Stafford had when he set the all-time attempts record in 2012. The Packers signal-caller has converted this volume into awesome fantasy production, averaging 29.9 fantasy points per game on DraftKings over this span. For some perspective, the Saints' Drew Brees has averaged 30.9 fantasy points in the Superdome this season with the league's most potent home offense.

The Texans have been solid against the pass this season in allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in DraftKings' scoring, but then again, Houston has allowed the 12th-most points per drive (2.17) on the road, 7.4 percent higher than the league average. On a volume-driven offense against a Texans defense that has the eighth-lowest pressure rate since the start of Week 4 (when J.J. Watt missed his first game), Rodgers should produce just as much as a quarterback like Brees but at a sizable discount.

Running Back

Daube's Play: Jordan Howard ($6,800 DK; $7,400 FD)

Sometimes the fantasy world just comes together in such an awesome way that it simply can’t be ignored. For Week 13, that's exactly the case for Howard vs. the San Francisco 49ers. Howard is, perhaps somewhat quietly, racking up yardage at an incredible pace. For the season, he ranks fourth among running backs with 5.14 yards gained per carry. That exceptional performance is a strong indicator that he will be given every opportunity to run roughshod over the 49ers, whose defense sits either at or near the bottom of every metric used to gauge the proficiency of rushing defenses.

Specifically, they sit dead last in both average yards per carry allowed (5.07) and rush attempts permitted (373), while also coming in just ahead of the San Diego Chargers and Washington Redskins having allowed 14 rushing touchdowns. Throw in the potential for Howard to be effective as a receiver and his expected level of production certainly justifies the investment used to select him.

McCormick's Play: Melvin Gordon ($7,200 DK; $8,000 FD)

Since the start of Week 2, when Danny Woodhead was sidelined, Gordon has led the NFL by garnering 86.6 percent of his team's rushing attempts as well as producing 90.3 percent of San Diego's rushing yardage. Gordon also leads the league over this span with 5.1 red zone touches per game, with only DeMarco Murray having more touches per game in goal-to-go scenarios.

In terms of receiving, Gordon ranks sixth in the league with 14 percent of his team's targets. As for this week's matchup, the Buccaneers have yielded 139 yards from scrimmage to tailbacks and rank 31st in run defense on Pro Football Focus. What's not to like with Gordon, based on this coveted blend of inviting matchup metrics and invaluable usage rates.

Wide Receiver

Daube's Play: Julio Jones ($8,700 DK; $8,300 FD)

I don’t usually advocate the selection of one of the highest-salaried players at any position, but the ability to stack Julio Jones with Ryan seems too good to pass up. To justify this salary, you need to feel pretty certain that Jones will post a 6-100-1 line, at a minimum, and there is enough evidence to support that expectation. First, Jones has played five games against teams that rank in the bottom half of fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. In those games, he has averaged 6.2 catches and 117 yards.

When Jones faces the Chiefs this Sunday, it will mark the most fantasy-friendly defense he’s seen all season. Kansas City ranks dead last in the league with over 41 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers. Look for Jones to build upon his league-leading 21 receptions of 20 yards or more with the Chiefs having allowed more than three such plays per week.

McCormick's Play: Antonio Brown ($9,100 DK; $9,000 FD)

Brown claims a 28.8 percent share of the Steelers' target market, second only to Mike Evans in the league. Brown's 30.3 percent share of the team's receptions is the highest in the league, while his average of 23.2 fantasy points on DraftKings is 12.6 percent higher than Jones' average this season for the Falcons.

Ben Roethlisberger has mimicked Drew Brees' home production pattern this season with 336.8 yards and 3.8 touchdowns per home game. With a rich implied team total of 27.3 points, per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, we can project multiple scores in the passing game for Pittsburgh. Given this confluence of positive trends, Brown is arguably the most bankable building block in both redraft and daily fantasy competition.

Tight End

Daube's Play: Greg Olsen ($5,100 DK; $6,200 FD)

Despite the preseason proclamations that the tight end position was as deep as it ever has been, the dominant fantasy production expected from the position never quite materialized. Olsen currently sits as the No. 2 tight end in PPR scoring, on a per-game basis, and with Jordan Reed (ranked No. 1) likely out this weekend, Olsen should be the highest-salaried player at the position. Instead, several other players who don’t carry Olsen’s pedigree are more expensive. With Olsen going against the Seattle Seahawks, you may be inclined to look for other options based on the perceived strength of the Seahawks defense. A closer look will find that the Seahawks have allowed three tight ends to post double-digit scores and have allowed 49 or more yards passing to six different tight ends.

Olsen is a superior talent to all the tight ends the Seahawks have faced, save for Rob Gronkowski, so it appears safe to expect Olsen to post at least four receptions for 50 yards -- with a potential to go much higher. Factor in the injuries in the Seahawks secondary, most notably to Earl Thomas, and the potential for a big game rises significantly. Olsen’s matchup likely means a low ownership potential, which makes the reward potential worth it, even if there’s an element of risk higher than one might normally tolerate. Take the gamble, especially in tournament formats.

McCormick's Play: Tyler Eifert ($5,300 DK; $6,800 FD)

The Eagles have been respectable against opposing tight ends but nevertheless rank 21st in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus. The key promotion angle is opportunity, as A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard produced nearly half the Bengals' receiving yardage through Week 10, so there is quite a void for this talented tight end to fill. Already a pivotal part of the passing game, Eifert leads the Bengals in targets, receiving yards and touchdowns over the past four games.

With a proven red zone rapport with Andy Dalton and with the position's upper tier thinned by injuries this week, Eifert is an affordable path to cost certainty and upside at this shallow positional market.

Flex

Daube's Play: Doug Martin ($5,700 DK; $6,500 FD)

In keeping with the theme of looking for players who are unlikely to be owned but have the potential to produce a huge number, Martin will fill my flex spot this week. Martin has been a disappointment this season, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and scoring only one touchdown in the five games he’s played. Despite that lack of production, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made it clear over the last two weeks that they will give the ball to Martin. He has carried 47 times in those two games and joins Le'Veon Bell as the only two players in the league with more than 20 rush attempts in both weeks.

The Buccaneers will face the Chargers on Sunday. San Diego has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns on the season (15) and permitted the fourth-highest percentage of rush attempts to result in first downs (26.1 percent). Based on the volume that you can project for Martin, the overall friendliness of the matchup and his very low expected ownership percentage, there’s a very strong potential for this pick to result in a successful finish in tournament formats.

McCormick's Play: Theo Riddick ($5,800 DK; $6,500 FD)

The Saints rank last in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) against running backs in the passing game and have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game (52.4) to backs this season. Riddick, meanwhile, ranks behind only David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell in targets per game among backs and has averaged nine carries and 43 yards on the ground over the past four games. The Saints have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to backs on DraftKings.

The week's highest projected point total is hovering around 53 points for this game, per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. I want to get as many paths to this shootout in the Superdome as possible. Given his impressive usage pattern and this favorable matchup for his receiving skill set, Riddick is a fine flex to consider for Week 13.