Politics behind demonetisation: Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi begin rat race for 2019 Lok Sabha elections

Nitish Kumar's lacklustre participation in the demonetisation debate allows the likes of Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal to emerge as the face of mythical third front.

New Delhi, Dec 2: Demonetisation move by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has compelled a fragmented Opposition to pose as a singular front. Yet the battle within Opposition ranks could not be set aside. The contest behind demonetisation and the politics being played under its garb was out in the open after the Bharat Bandh called by Left parties was boycotted by Congress, Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and other outfits. Parties like Janata Dal (United) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) have taken a nuanced position by acknowledging the intent and need of the note ban.

Nonetheless, the radical step of banning Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes by Modi regime provided an opportunity to the Opposition. Three politicians who have seized the opportunity and attracted the utmost media glare are: Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi.

Mamata targeting to replace a fragile Congress?

With 34 MPs in Lok Sabha, Mamata Banerjee has inched closer to Congress. The grand-old-party has been reduced to merely 44 seats. As per the trends seen in most of the assembly elections in the past couple of years (except Bihar), the condition of Congress is far from improving. Congress, which once formed the centrifugal point in Indian politics, has now been wiped out from most of its bastions. The party remains in power only in six small states, which form 6 per cent of nation’s territory. Karnataka is the only major state being ruled by the party.

Under such circumstances, Mamata could be eyeing an excellent opportunity to project the Trinamool Congress (TMC) at the forefront of the potential anti-BJP alliance which would take on NDA in 2019 assembly elections. However, unlike Congress, Mamata does not have a nationwide cadre base who could electorally ferment her position as a national leader.

All-gun-blazing Kejriwal

From his days as the anti-corruption crusader to his rise as the Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal has relied upon his fiery style of activism/politics to challenge the might of Opposition. His firebrand rhetoric against PM Modi on the issue of demonetisation is finding a connect. Although it may not be much appealing to the aam aadmi, but it has rejuvenated his volunteers across the nation. It was one of the reasons why the turnout at his rally in Meerut was unprecedented. Meerut has traditionally been a BJP bastion.

Due to the bravado exhibited by AAP in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it succeeded in once crucial political activity: creation of booth-level cadres. Although AAP was defeated with an iron fist in the general elections, the party succeeded in creating ground-level party structure on a pan-India level. Although the volunteer force of AAP could not be compared with Congress or BJP, it evidently exceeds TMC outside West Bengal.

Resurgence of Rahul Gandhi

Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has a case opposite to that of Mamata and Kejriwal. Similar to other things he inherited from Nehru-Gandhi family, Rahul is also blessed with the massive electoral base of Congress across the nation. Over the past couple of years, what pollsters have noticed is that the Congress workforce is turning demotivated, disillusioned and dormant. The demands of bringing Priyanka Gandhi into active politics is an evident sign that supporters and volunteers of grand old party are not enthused enough by Rahul.

As of late, the 46-year-old leader has began making scathing comments against Prime Minister Modi to gain limelight. On the issue of demonetisation, Rahul has acted pro-actively, leading the Congress charge outside the Parliament. He did not refrain from getting into queues and interacting with common people. Rahul’s efforts have allowed Congress to take share in the anti-demonetisation movement, which was being hogged up by Mamata and Kejriwal.

Politics of victimhood

This brand of politics was initially mastered by Kejriwal, but Mamata and Rahul are soon taking cue from him. In the aftermath of demonetisation, the trio have claimed to be victims in personal capacity. While Kejriwal claims that a conspiracy is being hatched to get his deputy Manish Sisodia arrested, Mamata has attributed her immediate flight landing, along the presence of Army’s Eastern Command unit in West Bengal as attempts to eliminate her and the TMC government respectively. On the other hand, Rahul claims that his twitter account being hacked proves that the digital space is unsafe for common people to indulge in transactions.

Fading national ambitions of Nitish Kumar

Nitish Kumar is in his third term as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Yet, the Janata Dal (United) chief stands on spinning electoral wicket in Bihar. The JD(U) has failed to emerge as the one-stop ballot choice for voters in the state, compelling him to remain dependent upon either BJP or the RJD to float his government. In the aftermath of his 2015 emphatic victory in assembly elections, Nitish came out strong with slogans of sharaab mukt samaj aur sangh mukt Bharat (Alcohol free society and RSS free nation).

Political pundits jumped to the opportunity of labelling him as the leader of potential third front alliance in the wake of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Some fantasy pollsters also compared Nitish with the late Prime Minister V P Singh, who formed ‘tactical alliance’ similar to Nitish in the run-up to his 1989 election victory.

However, on the issue of note ban, Nitish is accused of dropping the ball. Far from emerging at the forefront of opposing the move, Nitish praised it on multiple occasions and described it as an essential step to fight black money. Conspiracy theorists claim that the change in heart of Nitish reflects his growing distance from ally RJD.

After being accused of wooing BJP, Nitish has evidently taken a backseat on the issue and allowed his close aide Sharad Yadav to play JD(U)’s role in the Opposition.

However, Nitish’s lacklustre participation in the demonetisation debate allows the likes of Mamata and Kejriwal to emerge as the face of Opposition.