Saturday Best with Ray Hickson and Ron Dufficy

Hetty Heights, right, has impressed in two recent trials. Picture: Simon Bullard
Hetty Heights, right, has impressed in two recent trials. Picture: Simon BullardSource: News Corp Australia
Ray Hickson and Ron Dufficy from The Daily Telegraph

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Hickson and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the main races at Rosehill on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

FORMLINE: HORSES TO FOLLOW

STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL FOR ROSEHILL

RACE 4: TREESERVE HANDICAP (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m quite keen on Hetty Heights, I reckon her two recent trials have been pretty good. I know she has a bit of weight but I’m convinced there’s enough speed for her upfront to be charging home over the top. The other first-upper Dee Nine Elle looks a genuine on-pace mare and is set to run well. Imposing Lass has a touch of quality on her side and best of the rest is Harlem Lady, I know it appears short of her best but she usually performs fresh.

Hickson: I went with a bit of race fitness with Nudierudie. I thought her run behind Daysee Doom was quite good. She might get a nice run just behind them. Dee Nine Elle and Hetty Heights, two of the fresh ones you pinpointed, are strong chances as well and I have to throw in Painted Firetail as a chance as well.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Painted Firetail $8-$7-$6 ($500 @ $8, $500 @ $7), Hetty Heights $11-$7 ($200 @ $11, $800 @ $8)

Hetty Heights, right, has impressed in two recent trials. Picture: Simon BullardSource: News Corp Australia

RACE 5: TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1200m)

Dufficy: Reincarnate has had a month and a trial between runs but he hasn’t put a foot wrong and should be in the finish. He carried the 60kg last time so is a proven weight carrier. I would have tipped Perfect Dare from a better barrier. If he has any luck he is right in this, he’s coming to a peak third-up. Happy to give Salmanazar another chance, not a lot went right first-up when he was well fancied.

Hickson: I’m going to be forgiving and stick with Salmanazar. We didn’t really get a chance to see how well he’s going last start when he was well supported and expected to go well. Painte is an improver. He was ridden back last start and never got into the race but from one he’ll be closer to the speed. Reincarnate has to be respected too.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Salmanazar $11-$8-$7 ($250 @ $9, $100 x $200 e/w @ $8/$2.47)

RACE 6: STARLIGHT STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: I like Bachman, he’s being trained like a sprinter and the horse is reacting to that. He’s been kept fresh after that excellent run behind Kaepernick. I think he can get over the top of them. It’s a big step up for Nieta but she gets a chance to stamp herself though she is a touch under the odds. Then the stablemates Supreme Effort, who is tough, and Shiraz, who has the class angle.

Hickson: I like Bachman too. The race could well present nicely for him with the speed on. Hopefully he can get a clear run and the Kaepernick form looks pretty good. He’s a great chance. Mr Manhattan is flying and it’s a bit of a test for him. Not sure where he’ll get to from nine but maybe he can slot in off the pace and Nieta is very short but the pace might suit her.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nieta $3.50-$3.20 ($600 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3.20, $300 @ $3.20 TWICE, $1,200 @ $2.80)

Bachman looks well placed on Saturday. Picture: Simon BullardSource: Supplied

RACE 7: ATC CUP (2000m)

Dufficy: I’m expecting a huge improvement from Closing Bell. He’s needed these couple of runs and I like the fact there are a couple of gear changes with blinkers and a tongue tie. Falkenberg is the danger, she was a month between runs last time and a quicker back-up with the blinkers back on she has a good chance. Iggi Pop has needed recent racing but his last run will knock the edge off him for this.

Hickson: I like the two Snowden horses. Falkenberg is close to a win and bumping into an in-form horse in New Tipperary with the month between runs I’ve just got her on top. Not A Gypsy is looking for 2400m but he will run very well again and I’m very wary of Closing Bell. I think we will see something with those gear changes you mentioned. They are the race.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lady Le Fay $15-$7 ($250 x $350 @ $15/$4.39, $400 @ $8, $250 @ $8)

RACE 8: FESTIVAL STAKES (1500m)

Dufficy: Amovatio comes out of some solid form in Melbourne and has had a month since running well in Group 3 company. He has a class edge and with a bit of speed upfront is hard to hold out. Extensible doesn’t know how to run a bad race, she’s so genuine. No knock on Religify but he might find a bit more pressure upfront. Pajaro will be fitter for that first-up run.

Hickson: I have the impression it might be an on-pacers race, with Religify and Sweet Redemption pairing off. They could drive each other nuts and drop out or get the race to themselves. I like Religify. Extensible gets a nice run behind them and will be hard to beat and Red Excitement is going well.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Amovatio $11 ($300 @ $11, $200 x $300 e/w @ $11/$3.28), Religify $4.60-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.60)

Amovatio has a class edge on his rivals in the Festival Stakes. Picture: Colleen PetchSource: News Corp Australia

RACE 9: TAB HANDICAP (1500m)

Dufficy: I like Redoubtable Heart, he just had too much to do first-up for a long time. I don’t think he has to improve much and he has a big jockey change with Blake Shinn standing over him. Sir Plush hasn’t been doing too much wrong and he makes his own luck. Cauthen’s Power lost the plot when he was checked first-up but he won a trial nicely and could easily improve.

Hickson: I’m pretty keen on Duca Valentinois. They made the right move going into this race even with the 61kg. From barrier four it gives him the opportunity to be that little bit closer after missing the boat last time. He gets his chance. I’m frightened of Redoutable Heart though he has only won once in 16 starts. Sir Plush is pretty honest and is there as well.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Duca Valentinois $6-$5 ($400 @ $6), Sir Plush $3.50-$3.20 ($400 @ $3.20, $200 @ $3.50)

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST: Race 7, No. 3 CLOSING BELL

NEXT BEST: Race 6, No. 6 BACHMAN

Race 9, No. 5 REDOUTABLE HEART

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’ BEST BETS

NEWCASTLE (BEAUMONT)

BEST BET: ISLE OF CAPRI (Race 5, No. 6)

Is a Street Cry filly trained by Chris Waller — he certainly knows a thing or two about the breed being the master of champion mare Winx. This filly is out of the G2 winner Kosi Bay and has shown enough in her six trials (dating back to Feb 1) to suggests she has talent. Monitor any market moves.

NEXT BEST: MISS FISHER (Race 4, No. 5)

A three-year-old filly on debut today. This Muswellbrook visitor trialled very well in July before being tipped out. Has obviously come back well evidenced by her thumping 3-lens win in very fast time in a Scone heat on Nov 17.

VALUE: OH SO ASSERTIVE (Race 7, No. 9)

Kris Lees trained local third-up off a let-up. The mare ran a solid race at Scone last time and looks well placed here with Andrew Gibbons to ride as usual.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: JEFF PENZA

Penza has seven rides today, four of them he’ll be wearing the Royal Blue silks of Sheikh Mohammed. Any one of the Godolphin quartet can win of course, our pick of the bunch is Fanfaron in the second race.

WAGGA RIVERSIDE

BEST BET: BODICE (Race 4, No. 1)

rained on the track by Gary Colvin whose horses are flying at present. This daughter of popular Riverina sire, Bon Hoffa, did more than enough on debut to follow up on here.

NEXT BEST: SPARE PARTS (Race 5, No. 11)

Is trained by another prolific Wagga conditioner in Trevor Sutherland. Only won 2 from 28 but has placed 9 times and against better horses than these.