Bigger is not always better

The now defunct airline, Kingfisher Airlines had made heads turn at the 2005 Paris Air Show when it announced that it had placed orders for five of the world’s largest aircraft, Airbus A380.

Over a decade later, the airline has passed into history. If experts are to be believed, the same fate may be in store for the A380 as well, though its makers vehemently deny that it will happen anytime soon.

But there are enough indications already as the sale of A380s are slowing down since its maiden flight in 2005 (the first commercial flight was in 2007). At the Farnborough air show early this year, aircraft maker Airbus finally admitted to what was already known to everyone in the airline industry: sales of the A380 were dwindling every year.

Therefore, it had decided to reduce the production of A380 to just one per month from 2018 onwards from about 2.5 per month.

Top Airbus executives have however been in a denial mode defending the A380 every time an airline announced that it was either delaying or reducing the number of A380s it had earlier planned to buy. But they no longer can do so as few want to buy an aircraft which at one time was touted as the answer to insufficient capacity.

An A380 can pack in over 500 passengers in a three-class configuration or about 850 in an all-economy class. This is like having five compact A320neos in a single aircraft. The difference in costs is about four times that of an A320neo. While the A380 list price is about $430 million, the A320neo costs $107 million.

There has never been an aircraft built as big as A380. The double deck, wide body, four-engine jet aircraft has nearly 6,000 sq ft of usable floor space, 40 per cent more than the next biggest aircraft, the Boeing B747-8, and is 50 per cent quieter. Its largest customer, Emirates has 80 of these super-jumbos and 120 more on order, while Singapore Airlines, its launch customer, and Qantas have 20 or more.

Totally, 319 A380s fly across the continents and according to the aircraft maker, it has a 90 per cent-share of the very large aircraft market. But that’s where all its pluses end.

In the early nineties, Airbus and Boeing explored the possibility of jointly building a Very Large Commercial Transport (VLCT). But following differences over whether such an aircraft was really needed, both parted ways. Boeing felt that more airlines will rather fly point to point, while Airbus believed that with the world moving so fast, a much bigger aircraft was needed which could carry passengers from hub to hub.

In June, 1994, Airbus formally announced that it was going to build its version of a Very Large Aircraft code named, A3XX. But the first commercial flight of A380 happened only in 2007 after several delays. The initial cost of building the aircraft also went up from Euro 9 billion to about Euro 14 billion. But a lot of things had changed between 1994 and 2007. The aviation world was moving decisively towards point to point with non-stop routes served by smaller aircraft.

Boeing’s Dinesh Keskar who is the Senior Vice President for sales for Asia-Pacific and India, citing an example, said 10 years ago there were hardly seven flights a week on Air India from Delhi to London. The Boeing’s 747 would pick up passengers who had collected in Mumbai or Delhi from places like Hyderabad and Bengaluru. Since then, traffic in airports in major metros is choc-o-bloc. Therefore, airlines are buying planes which allow them to ferry passengers from smaller airports like Bengaluru, Hyderabad and others which can fly direct non-stop to their respective destinations. “We bet on the right strategy and the right philosophy at that time and have benefited from that vision,” Keskar pointed out.

Keskar goes on to add that some of the airlines have already approached his company to find out how they can get rid of the A380s. Singapore Airlines' General Manager, David Lim told this paper recently that it will take one A380 out of the pending five and return the one on lease to the lessor. But whether it will take possession of the rest has not been decided yet. “We have 19 A380s. Out of the five we have ordered, we will buy one next year and return the leased A380 back to the lessor. But whether we will add one more to the fleet, we are not sure,” Lim said. But an Airbus spokesperson said Singapore Airlines has clarified, they are replacing their first A380 with the first of their next batch of five new A380s on order. "Singapore Airlines is known for operating a young fleet and continuously rolls over aircraft once they reach a certain age.

At a recent event in Toulouse, the airline’s CEO reiterated SIA’s commitment to the A380 and the new aircraft set for delivery from next year will feature the carrier’s new cabin products.

He also said that there are over 50 weekly A380 flights to and from India every week, operated by four major international carriers. “The A380 is particularly suited for the Indian market which is one of the fastest growing in the world and we are of course in talks with Indian carriers about it but these discussions are confidential,” the spokesperson said.

A spokesperson for Air India said there are no immediate plans to place orders for A380 as the airline itself is struggling with multiple issues and would want to sort them out first. But the Indian flag carrier has several B787s which can fly long distance and may not require A380s for sometime to come.

A decade from now, Emirates which has the largest number of A380s (84 at present) could be the only one to keep the production of the aircraft going but as the world of aviation moves towards tighter cost controls, the aircraft is no longer being seen as a viable alternative.

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