Asia Pacific Gaming Consultancy (APG) published weekly table-only GGR estimates. According to APG, the Macau average daily run rate (ADR) is estimated at HK$671mn for 21-27 November. With slots revenue estimated at HK$950mn for the full month, APG projects overall November GGR of HK$17.3bn, an 8% increase YoY.
The ADR was 30% higher than last week's (ie, HK$514mn on average during 14-20 November). Moreover, Macquarie Research has observed quite solid visitation at most major casinos in November to date on both the Peninsula side (Wynn Macau, MGM and Grand Lisboa) as well as the Cotai area (Wynn Palace, Galaxy, Parisian and Studio City).
The research house thus feels comfortable with its 11% YoY growth estimate for November GGR (versus consensus' 6%), not to mention a low comparable basis (GGR down by 32% YoY last November).
Overall, Macquarie said the sector is trading at a 15x EV/EBITDA, 20% above the historical average. This compares with Macquarie's projection for an 18% Ebitda CAGR for the coming three years. Macquarie maintained its bullish view on Macau.
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