Tisco bearish on Europe markets

Tisco bearish on Europe markets

Investors should avoid European equity markets because of increasing risks from regional political issues, says Komsorn Prakobpol, head of strategy at Tisco Economic Strategy Unit (Tisco ESU).

Mr Komsorn said while Donald Trump's victory might have shocked the world, his presidency is not the biggest threat compared with the Italian referendum, which could genuinely shake the European equity markets.

"The upcoming Italian referendum in December could become an earthquake for the financial markets in Europe this year and next," he said.

The Italian referendum on constitutional reform, scheduled for Dec 4, could decide the fate of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's government.

If the outcome is a "No" vote, it opens up the possibility of new elections and a chance for the opposition party, the Five Star Movement (M5S), a Eurosceptic group, to set up a government.

Other significant events in Europe next year include a general election in the Netherlands in March, a French presidential election in April, Germany's general election in September, and the uncertainty of Brexit negotiations, all making the region a bad place for investment, said Mr Komsorn.

In contrast, he said Mr Trump's fiscal policy should support US bourses.

"His corporate income tax cuts and increase of government spending should boost the US domestic economy. We expect the US GDP could exceed 3% growth next year," said Mr Komsorn.

Tisco ESU forecasts the US Congress will approve the corporate tax cut to 25% from 35%, which should help the earnings of S&P 500-listed companies expand from this year by 8% on average.

It also expects pharmaceutical companies will outperform the market next year as they are unencumbered from the strict medicine price control measures Hillary Clinton proposed.

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