Former Union Minister Shashi Tharoor speaks to CNN-News18’s Pallavi Ghosh on Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the US elections and what India can expect for his presidency.You have lived in US for so long, it’s almost your second home. So what happened? What explains this victory of Donald Trump after allegations of groping, tax fraud, cheating?
The exit polls offer some clues. Hillary won the minorities overwhelmingly but a majority of white voters – including, surprisingly, white women – went for Trump. A strong majority of those 44 years old and above voted for Trump – they are the people who remember a white-bread, white-picket-fence America, and hope he will restore the American Dream in place of a globalized America which seems to have benefited only the establishment elites and immigrants. And Trump swept the non-college-educated white blue-collar vote. So this is to some degree the Last Stand of White America against the encroachment of foreign forces on their lives. (The remorseless logic of demography means that with time America will become more brown, more pluralist.) It is also a vote for negativism – for the fears, xenophobia and racism that Trump and his supporters have unleashed, and against the liberal elite that Hillary was seen to typify. A lot of voters said they were voting against the candidate they disliked more, rather than for the one they liked more!ALSO READ | Trump Will Embrace Hindu Culture and Give up Beef: Hindu Mahasabha LeaderNet-net, will the Trump Presidency be good for India or bad? Why?
I’ve always argued that the fundaments of the US-India relationship are sound and that we have good relations with both Republican and Democratic Administrations for the last sixteen years, so I see no reason for any major change. But if Trump seeks to fulfil all his campaign commitments, there will be a setback or two. Indians are overwhelmingly the principal users of H1b visas; the restrictions promised by Trump will affect Indian IT companies and software techies. Indian students may also suffer new restrictions.ALSO READ | Donald Trump Becomes 45th US President: What it Means For India
I’m also alarmed by the complacency with which many Indian analysts on TV think that Trump will be good for our anti-terror efforts with Pakistan. Though Trump sees “radical Islamic terrorism” as the biggest threat to the US and the world, the Pakistani generals have proved adept at convincing Republicans that they are the best bulwark against Islamist terror. That’s how GHQ Rawalpindi has extracted $11 billion in military aid from the US so far. I fear we may see a repetition of the same, using Trump’s own logic in Pakistan’s favour.Any steps you think our government should immediately take on foreign policy front to readjust itself to this new reality?
We should reach out as early as possible to Trump and the motley crew of advisers around him who might constitute his foreign policy team – not just the Cabinet but the whole series of likely political appointees in the bureaucracy. I assume that we have begun to do so.What explains this rise of the anti-politician around the world? Putin, in a way Modi and Abe, and now Trump?
There is a general disillusionment with the political system in each country – look at Brexit, and look at Greece, to add to your examples. The perception of the aam aadmi around the world is that economic progress through globalization has only benefited a small elite as well as foreigners (like the Chinese). Hillary, with her Wall Street speeches, was seen as a charter member of the elite despite her 30 years of public service, whereas Trump, despite being a businessman who paid no taxes and exploited the system to his personal profit, was seen as the outsider who could bring change.ALSO READ | Top Goals for President Donald Trump, hurdles in front of himDo you see the possibility of a new Trump-Modi-Putin axis developing? What would be the global implications?
It is far too early to tell. A lot will depend on the team he assembles and how serious he seems to be about carrying out his election promises. Often campaign rhetoric does not translate into concrete policy choices. But in any case Mr Putin would expect better relations with him than he would have had with a Hillary administration. As for Mr Modi, I hope he is canny enough to keep multiple options open in India’s interest. We have interesting times ahead!