By Shahram Dana
If you think that Donald Trump is a bleep on the radar, a trending fascination that Americans have with celebrity, think again. The Donald is the first of many Trumps to come. Win or lose come November 8, Trump's quest for the White House will influence American politics for the next decade.
Perhaps (although far from certain) Trump's bombastic style of politics (Trumpism) will not gain sufficient traction on a national scale to claim the White House. But that does not mean Trumpism won't get significant footing inside the US Congress.
Donald Trump's quest for the White House will influence American politics for the next decade.Credit: Andrew Harrer
Changes in policy requires support in Congress if they are to become law. From tax code reform, to an optimal health care system; from building the Supreme Court, to building the economy – no progress can be made without walking through the doors of the US Congress in some measure.
Let's face it – the president of the United States may be the most powerful (wo)man in the world, but s/he is not the most powerful person in America, at least not when it comes to passing laws for change. The US House of Representatives has to check off on it as does the Senate. And there lies what will be The Donald's real legacy.
The politically ambitious will go back (if they have not already) and identify Congressional districts where voters overwhelmingly favoured Trump. They will mimic his rhetoric, ideology, and political positions to win seats in the US House of Representatives. And win they will, perhaps as many as 40 seats, giving them a sizeable voice on the national stage to continue Trump's views on immigration, tax, attitude towards Muslims, Mexicans, woman, and more.
They may identify as Republican, or Tea Party, or Independents. Regardless of their chosen label, their positions on critical social and political issues will be Trumpism in its understanding of America, of the world, of current problems, and appropriate solutions.
The likelihood of this happening is further bolstered by the unprecedented rigging of election results by Republican gerrymandering or redistricting (Democrats do this too, but to a lesser degree).
Gerrymandering is the manipulation of the boundaries of an electoral unit so as to favour a political party. In other words, the great American democracy is probably the only democracy in the world where the Representative chooses the voters, rather than voters choosing the Representative.
While gerrymandering is nothing new to American politics, today technology and more accurate tracking of demographics of a population allow gerrymandering to go beyond educated guess work to a science, allowing Republicans to keep control of the House of Representatives even in the face of landslide losses in voters.
It is surprising with all the clamouring speculation about "rigged elections" by Trump, no one is seriously talking about gerrymandering's established record of stealing elections and undermining democracy.
In the 2012 US national elections, the Democrats won 1.4 million more votes than the Republicans. Yet, Republican were award 33 more seats in the House of Representatives. Two years ago, 51 per cent of all voters in North Carolina voted Democrat. Yet, the Democrats only won four of North Carolina's 17 seats in the House of Representatives; the remaining 13 went to the Republicans.
In his bid for a second term as president, Barack Obama won Michigan, convincingly beating Mitt Romney by 10 points. The Democratic candidate for Michigan's US Senate delivered an even greater winning margin of 20 points, but thanks to Republican control of district lines, the Republicans won nine of Michigan's 14 seats in the House.
The Democrats won a mere five seats despite 240,000 more votes being cast for Democrat candidates than Republican candidates. In Pennsylvania (a battle ground state this election), the story is the same. Voters cast 83,000 more votes for Democrat candidates than Republican ones; yet the Republicans won 13 of the 18 House seats.
Fast forward to today, many Republican leaders at all levels of government have publicly stated that they do not support Trump. Even if the Democrats retain the White House, these Republicans are confident that they will control Congress thanks to a gerrymandering systems that is designed to withstand large losses in overall votes (think back to 2010 – 1.4 million in the hole on votes; yet they got 33 more seats in the House).
Although this iron clad gerrymandering helps Republican candidates, it also threatens their party's future. The gerrymandering that has allowed the Republican party to control the House will help the many Trumps to come. And The Donald's hostile takeover of the Republican party will be complete.
Shahram Dana is a senior law lecturer in international law at Griffith University. Until recently, he lived in the United States and was an associate professor of law in Chicago.