The young ones Khan't: Why Ranbir-Ranveer-Shahid can never achieve superstardom like the Khans

First, a little numbers game.

Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan and Aamir Khan are 50, 50 and 51 respectively. Ranveer Singh, Ranbir Kapoor and Shahid Kapoor are 31, 34 and 35 respectively.

By 35, Shah Rukh Khan had starred in some of his biggest blockbusters such as Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge, Darr, Pardes, Yes Boss and Dil Se. Though Aamir and Salman's golden run only began in the 2000s, in the '90s, their stardom was virtually uncontested due to the older rung of stars fading out and starring in films that did not really shake up the box office.

ALSO READ: At 34, is Ranbir a legend in the making?

ALSO READ: Shah Rukh's career is officially over

ALSO READ: Aamir in Dangal vs Salman in Sultan; who did what better?

Keeping the Khans aside, even Akshay Kumar and Ajay Devgn had developed a sizeable following by their mid-30s. The question now is, will the new crop of actors such as Ranbir, Ranveer and Shahid ever be able to position themselves in the God-shaped holes that Aamir, Shah Rukh and Salman will leave once they stop being the biggest stars of our time? Perhaps, a more worrisome question is whether the Khans, Devgns or Kumars ever cease to be the big superstars that they are? If they don't, is it because the new generation is not good enough? Or the older generation had something that the new guys don't have? Or is the answer more complicated?

Economics

According to a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016, the Gini coefficient (the most commonly used measure of income inequality) for India rose from 0.45 in the 1990s to 0.51 in 2013 and after. Like everything else, back in the '90s, ticket prices of films were way cheaper than it is today, and that too, taking inflation into account. Simply put, a larger demographic saw films by the Khans back in the '90s, which is when these actors built a foundation to their stardom, which they would go on to consolidate over the next one-and-half decade.

In fact, Karan Johar, who has launched the careers of quite a few young stars of this generation (Sidharth Malhotra, Varun Dhawan and Alia Bhatt) and gave Ranbir two of his biggest hits (Wake Up Sid, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani), bluntly said that it will be very tough for the new kids to attain Khan-like superstardom.

"Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan and Aamir Khan had a decade to build their equity. You are made a big star by the number of people who have watched your films across the world. The number of people who have watched a film starring Salman Khan, Shah Rukh Khan, Aamir Khan and Akshay Kumar... I don't think anyone from the younger lot can attain that. It is going to be very tough for a Ranveer Singh and Ranbir Kapoor to build that audience base which is exceptionally loyal, faithful. They are talented but building a following will be very difficult," Karan Johar said.

So, when earlier in the '90s, someone driving an Audi as well as someone pulling a rickshaw could afford to catch a Salman-SRK-Aamir film in a theatre and be enamoured by them, today, the kinds of films made have a huge class-mass disparity so to speak. The kind of films that have established, say, Ranbir as a credible actor like Wake Up Sid, Tamasha, Rocket Singh: Salesman of the Year, etc are not really single-screen films. Audiences from Tier B and Tier C cities tend to catch maar-dhaar wale films (like a Rowdy Rathore or a Bodyguard) and they feel alienated by films like, say, Haider or a Lootera. And this single-screen space is something that the older stars have completely occupied and you cannot even blame them for doing bad films. They are not. Which brings us to the next point.

Quality of films by the older stars

Back in the '90s, Amitabh Bachchan and Rishi Kapoor had completely lost the plot. Following the injury Amitabh incurred during the shooting of Coolie (1983), then getting diagnosed with Myasthenia Gravis, his political slump and so on, Big B was tired and in a terrible state throughout the '90s. His production company ABCL was in tatters and he was acting in sub-par films like Mrityudata and Lal Baadshah. Rishi Kapoor had been reduced to character roles by the '90s itself. He turned 40 in 1992. Anil Kapoor, Jackie Shroff and Sanjay Dutt delivered some commercial successes in this period but nothing that they could build on in this next decade.

Cut to Salman, Shah Rukh and Aamir in the 2010s. All the big holidays (Eid, Christmas, Diwali, Independence Day, Republic Day, etc) are blocked by the Khans and Akshay or Devgn till as late as 2018. That is simply because these actors have reinvented themselves with age and have consistently delivered critically and commercially-acclaimed films. After the 2000s, Aamir has given us Lagaan, Ghajini, Rang De Basanti, 3 Idiots, PK and his upcoming film is Dangal. SRK has moved away from his romantic image and has done films like Swades and Chak De! India. He has even done goofy, masala movies like Happy New Year and Chennai Express. Salman has delivered one powerhouse blockbuster after another.

So, unlike Big B, Rishi and the older stars of the '90s, the ones who are past 40 and 50 today are still at the top of their game. They have not slumped like stars did in the '90s. SRK, Salman and Aamir entered the film-watching public's imagination only when the old stars faded away and there was room to fill. Where will Ranbir, Ranveer or Shahid be able to squeeze themselves into if there is such limited space? Especially when...

Too many actors, too many mediums

25-year-old Harshvardhan Kapoor, who just debuted in Mirzya that flopped miserably, has fan clubs all over social media! A flop hero has a fan club! Insane. Then, there are multiple fan clubs on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for actors, ranging from Tiger Shroff to Shraddha Kapoor to Ranbir Kapoor to Ranveer Singh to whoever. Who are these fans? They appear to have no physical presence but they exist in millions on social media. Even television actors and internet celebs like Sumeet Vyas (Permanent Roommates, TVF Tripling) or comedian Kenny Sebastian have fan clubs and fanboys/fangirls.

So, people are not just watching films on the big screen anymore. People are watching material on the internet. Indians are as upbeat and excited about the next Game of Thrones episode as they are about the next big Bollywood release. Simply, there is a lot of good content and there are too many talented people and they are getting noticed. Unless the new crop of stars does exceptionally good work, they cannot establish any kind of hegemony over the theatre-going public, or Bollywood, for that matter. The space for young actors and new material is much democratised than it was the '90s and in this climate, it is not so easy to outKhan the Khans at their game.

(The writer tweets as @devarsighosh.)