Next year’s historic second round of simultaneous regional elections in 101 provinces, regencies and cities across the archipelago is touted as reflecting Indonesia’s democracy, which remains stifled by politicians’ short-term, opportunistic visions and mired in corruption. Our team, Nani Afrida and Pandaya in Jakarta, with reporting from correspondents Hotli Simanjuntak in Aceh, Syamsul Huda M. Suhari in Gorontalo and Bambang Muryanto in Yogyakarta, outline the major issues surrounding the much-awaited events.

Funco Tanipu, a lecturer with the state Gorontalo University, was very skeptical about the local gubernatorial candidacy, which was dominated by old faces. He observed that when it came to the recruitment system, the aspirants’ money did the talking more than their actual competence.

The lingering tradition of favoring the old, stiff hands with formidable financial resources was dashing the local people’s hopes for the emergence of young, hip leaders. This old-fashioned practice, he said, had kept lots of capable younger leaders at bay.

Tanipu suspected that the old players — four pairs with all but one nominee aged over 50 — only represented the interests of the national political elite and capitalists who were targeting multi-million dollar projects in Gorontalo, from the construction of a railway system, to cement production and gold mining concessions.

“This [upcoming election] is a representation of the political strife of Gorontalo’s capitalists,” he said. “So it’s only logical that there is no competition of ideas among the candidates.”

Even though Tanipu happened to be commenting on the Gorontalo election, his allegations ring quite true for the Feb. 15 political contests in the other 100 provinces, cities and regencies across the archipelago.

The elections are widely seen as critical for political parties to strengthen their grassroots bases and bolster their leverage for the 2019 general election, when the national top jobs, both in the executive and legislative bodies, will be up for grabs.

As in any other previous elections, they are mired in widespread vote buying, bribery, cronyism and nepotism. Criminals are granted tickets to run for public office. For example, a Gorontalo incumbent candidate — Rusli Habibie — is on two-year probation for defaming the then local police chief, Comr. Gen. Budi Waseso, who probed a myriad of graft cases implicating Rusli while he was the North Gorontalo regent from 2008 to 2012.

But Rusli does not have to worry about anything because the candidacy of convicts like him has been made legal by an agreement between lawmakers and Home Affairs Ministry officials, who turned a deaf ear to fierce popular objection. Ex-prisoners also retain their right to hold public positions on the grounds that they have paid for their crimes. In short, political parties have belittled ethical considerations.

The Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) noted that between 2005 and 2015, Indonesia had implemented 1,300 regional direct elections. This formidable experience and the lessons learned should make future elections better in terms of organization, transparency and fairness, or does it?

LIPI senior researcher Siti Zuhro had a surprising account. In terms of quality, the direct regional elections were declining. The public had been losing trust in the corrupt system.

“Candidates use any means, including illogical tactics, to win the elections,” she said. “It’s a mask democracy. Financial transactions [for political gains] are the order of the day. Opportunism has taken the place of idealism.”

Direct elections were designed in the wake of dictator Soeharto’s downfall by proponents of reformation, with the aim of improving public service, encouraging local competitive advantage, creating good governance and improving citizens’ wellbeing. These ideals remain elusive.

Political parties have miserably failed to carry out their basic function of recruiting honest leaders and educating the masses about the basic values of democracy, such as integrity and fairness. The Jakarta gubernatorial candidacy is a case in point: None of the three candidates, Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, represent any political party, although each of them is endorsed by parties because running as an independent has been virtually blocked.

Early smear campaigns exacerbated by Ahok’s recent gaffe about Quran verses gives credence to Siti’s allegations about contenders’ Machiavellian tendencies to win elections.

Adding insult to injury, the amended laws on regional elections have dashed the people’s hopes for the emergence of independent candidates. The mostly self-serving House of Representatives has raised the bar for potential leaders to run on independent tickets to an unreasonably high level. Even Ahok, who claimed to have the support of a million voters, backed down from his independent bid and sought party endorsement.

The damning legislation denies citizens the right to field leaders of their own choice and left them to accept the candidates chosen by politicians instead. Only a few regencies and provinces will see aspirants running as independents, including one in Aceh and one in Gorontalo.

Another new provision in the law that some local candidates have exploited is one that allows the election to proceed in the event there is only a single pair in the contest. In this case, voters will indicate if they agree or disagree.

In some regencies, such as Kulon Progo in Yogyakarta, incumbent candidates have secured the support of almost all local councilors, leaving no chance for other people to take part in the contest. This practice has raised suspicion of early vote buying. It is no big deal if the single candidates have proven track records, like Kulon Progo regent Hasto Wardoyo and Surabaya mayor Tri Rismaharini.

Next year, six regencies will have nominees without contenders: Kulon Progo, Tulang Bawang, Landak, Pati, Buton and Tambrauw, plus one mayoralty: Tebingtinggi. In last year’s first round of simultaneous elections, there were only three.

Bayu Dardias, a political lecturer with Gadjah Mada University, said that the phenomenon was made possible by either the candidates’ unrivalled patronage or their formidable financial clout that enabled them to buy votes.

Such strong patronage and plutocracy was also blamed for the robust “political dynasties” in many regions, like Banten, Lampung, South Sumatra, Kutai Kartanegara and South Sulawesi. In the local context, “political dynasty” is simply a euphemism for “nepotism”, with all the negative perceptions that go along with it.

“The regions where political dynasties have taken hold have similar characteristics in common: they are impoverished, agricultural and rural,” Bayu said.

Amid concern about civil organizations and the media’s inability to play an effective role as electoral watchdog, the legal empowerment of the traditionally lame Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) has come as a ray of hope.

Now it wields the power to punish recalcitrant candidates, disqualifying nominees who break the rules. Unless its members are partisan, it should be brave enough to exercise this newfound authority.

Unfortunately, Bawaslu’s empowerment is only a one-step-forward, two-steps-back tactic because — inconsistently — the new regulations allow regional head aspirants to provide money to their supporters, so long as it is disguised as lunch, transportation and prize allowances. This anecdotal reality is apparently designed by politicians to complicate investigations into allegations of bribery and vote buying.

“Although campaigning regulation No. 12/2016 prohibits candidates from providing cash to supporters attending their rallies, they can still bend the rules,” said Titi Anggraini of the Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem). “What if a candidate invites an ulema to a hotel and pays for his lunch, room and transportation? Isn’t it a form of vote buying, too?”

High hopes are hung on the stronger Bawaslu to act professionally and independently. Tough law enforcement to uphold the rule of law is the job that it failed to do in the past, casting doubt on its independence.

Observers are warning of potential disputes in such restive areas as Aceh and West Papua. The flawed legal framework, questionable neutrality on the part of the organizers, growing sectarian strife and bitter rivalry among local contenders are all reasons to fear open conflicts.

Aceh has been singled out as the most vulnerable to violent conflicts, largely because four of the six gubernatorial candidates are rival ex-leaders of the secessionist Free Aceh Movement (GAM). They are former governor Irwandi Yusuf, incumbent Zaini Abdullah, incumbent deputy Muzakir Manaf and Zakaria Zaman.

All but Irwandi belong to the Aceh Party, the largest local party, chaired by Muzakir, while Zaini and Zakaria will run as independents.

“The upcoming election will further divide the Aceh Party and this could make things precarious because each candidate has their own loyal supporters,” said Efendi Hasan, a political observer from the Banda Aceh-based State University of Syah Kuala.

The contest will be even livelier with the unique alliance between local and national political parties. Muzakir has secured the backing of not only the Aceh Party but also five national parties: the Jan Faridz faction of the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) and the Gerindra Party.

Irwandi, as a former GAM leader and governor from 2006 to 2012, is seen as a strong contender. He founded the Aceh National Party following his reelection defeat in 2012. His political backing will be reinforced by another local party, the Aceh Peace Party, and three national parties: the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Democratic Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

For the province that has formally adopted sharia and where Quran recital is prerequisite to getting a ticket for the race, next year’s election will be the third since it signed a peace agreement with the Indonesian government in Helsinki in 2005.

In addition, 16 regencies across Aceh will also elect their heads of government. Like the gubernatorial aspirants, some of the regent nominees have links to GAM and retain strong support from voters sympathetic to the separatist cause. In anticipation of disturbances, the local police plan to mobilize some 10,000 of their 14,000 personnel.