Cox Plate 2016: Winx has two lengths on rivals according to ratings expert Vince Accardi

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This was published 7 years ago

Cox Plate 2016: Winx has two lengths on rivals according to ratings expert Vince Accardi

By Chris Roots

Champion mare Winx has a two-length buffer on her Cox Plate rivals at the ratings, but it is up to Hugh Bowman to ensure an uninterrupted run as she chases elite speed in the weight-for-age championship at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

Daily Sectionals times expert Vince Accardi declared Winx as a worthy favourite to win her second Cox Plate, saying she is capable of running her best race this spring on the big day. Accardi's rating has her set to run to a remarkable 12 lengths better than standard.

But Accardi's race map has Winx giving up a start to Hartnell and French raider Vadamos, which he expects to lead and pour on the pressure from at least 1000-metres out.

Yankee Rose and Hauraki have shown the ability to run elite closing figures and are the only other chances in the field.

Simply the best: Hugh Bowman and Winx (right) take out the Cox Plate last spring.

Simply the best: Hugh Bowman and Winx (right) take out the Cox Plate last spring.Credit: Getty Images

"Nothing in this race can give Winx a start and beat her," Accardi said. "The way the race is going to be run makes Hugh Bowman's job to keep her out of trouble and make sure she comes with a clean, clear run.

"Interference can beat her because there are a couple of horses capable of elite data in the race.

"The filly Yankee Rose has showed she has the late closing speed to just about go with Winx, but we don't know if she can handle the pressure that is going to be on in this race.

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"Hauraki got to that very high closing figure from his last start in the Epsom of 11 lengths, but his overall closing figure is a couple of lengths off that. I actually think he peaked at that last run," Accardi said.

"Hartnell is interesting. He is about a length or two off them [in closing speed] but his advantage is he can sustain it for 1200 metres like Winx, we know that from his data.

"He can test her but he needs luck on his side to beat her."

Accardi said Chris Waller and John O'Shea have the two favourites ready to run their best figures of the spring. Hauraki, Yankee Rose and Vadamos ran career bests at their last start, whereas Winx and Hartnell are still trending up.

While Accardi doesn't believe she can run to her 16.3 lengths better than benchmark from last year's Cox Plate, he has Winx comfortably on top.

"The track helped her last year but she is going to run to a spring best on Saturday," Accardi said.

"Hartnell is racing in his best form since he came to Australia and is capable to get to 10 lengths above benchmark, but it's still a couple of lengths short of Winx.

"It is interesting that Winx and Hartnell ran their best closing 400 metres of their careers when they met first-up this spring in the Warwick Stakes ... they might bring the best of each other again."

Accardi said the change from Joao Moreira to Mark Zahra on Vadamos dropped his predicted rating because Moreira is a superior judge of speed.

"Vadamos from his data in France has a very high sustained cruising speed and he is going make them work from a long way out," Accardi said.

"When they drop the hammer at around the 1000, the change in speed will be about six to 10 lengths, which takes half the field out of the race because they just can't do that.

"Yankee Rose should be on Vadamos' back and it will be how she handles that pressure, which she has never seen before, that determines if she can run a place. Hauraki should be able to go with them but might be found wanting at the end.

"Winx and Hartnell should have them covered and with an uninterrupted run, Winx wins."

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