CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, nuclear negotiations, and regional conflicts closely.
Below are the top three takeaways from the week:
1. Iran is using the Yemeni civil war to extend its reach and further entangling internal Yemeni conflicts with regional tensions. Missiles fired from al Houthi-Saleh territory targeted the USS Mason just north of the Bab al Mandab Strait on October 9 and October 12. The U.S. Navy destroyed three radar sites in Yemen in response. Senior U.S. administration officials stated that there is “no doubt” of al Houthi involvement in the attacks, which al Houthi-Saleh leaders have repeatedly denied. The al Houthi-Saleh faction has since released two American prisoners to Omani custody and agreed to resume the peace process, likely indicating efforts to de-escalate tensions with the U.S. Operatives from Iran or Lebanese Hezbollah may have conducted or facilitated the attacks on the USS Mason.
2. Security may breakdown in Tripoli, Libya, after an attempted coup against the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Political leaders from the General National Congress (GNC), a rump Islamist parliament, attempted to seize the headquarters of a pro-GNA governmental body in Libya’s capital with the support of armed groups. The GNA remains in control of Libya’s state institutions, but powerful militias opposed to the GNA and its supporters are now rallying in support of the attempted coup in Tripoli. Competition between rival militias could erupt into open fighting in Tripoli. The collapse of security in Tripoli would further undermine the already weak GNA and draw resources away from the unfinished fight against ISIS in central Libya.
3. American citizens remain a target for Salafi-jihadi groups operating in the Sahel region of West Africa. Militants based in Mali abducted an American aid worker from his home in Niger on October 15. No group has claimed responsibility for the abduction, though the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) was likely involved. MUJAO is affiliated with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AQIM is resurgent in the Sahel and will continue to conduct attacks designed to impel the U.S. and its allies to withdraw from the region.
2. 2
TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
1. Iran may have facilitated at least two missile attacks from al Houthi-Saleh
territory that targeted a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea.
2. Tripoli is on the verge of a security breakdown following an attempted coup
against the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).
3. American citizens remain a target for Salafi-jihadi groups operating in the Sahel
region.
3
2
1
3. 3
| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates
Political and military tensions remain high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. Indian security forces engaged in
a three-day standoff with suspected Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militants in Pampore, Jammu and Kashmir. Indian security
forces issued a security alert warning that LeT militants may attempt to infiltrate the Punjab border. Pakistan-based Salafi-
jihadi group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) urged the Pakistani government to allow jihadi organizations to participate in the
Kashmir conflict.
Outlook: Salafi-jihadi groups in Pakistan and Kashmir will continue efforts to increase and legitimize their participation in the
Kashmir conflict. Pakistan-based Salafi-jihadi groups will likely continue to target Indian security forces in order to
demonstrate their capabilities and stake in the conflict.
Pakistani security forces continued to crack down on militant groups following a call from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to
improve counterterrorism operations. Pakistani forces conducted successful operations in Balochistan, in and around
Karachi, and in Punjab. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan splinter group Jamatul Ahrar continues to actively target Pakistani
security forces. Jamatul Ahrar gunmen killed three officers in Quetta, Balochistan Province.
Outlook: Pakistan will continue to crack down on Salafi-jihadi organizations in order to deflect accusations of support for
militant groups and de-escalate tensions in Kashmir.
4. 4
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
All major parties agreed to a 72-hour humanitarian ceasefire to begin on October 19. Political progress remains unlikely
because no major parties have expressed willingness to modify their opposing political objectives. The al Houthi-Saleh
faction’s participation in the ceasefire and its release of two American hostages to Oman on October 15 indicate that al
Houthi-Saleh leadership seeks to de-escalate tensions with the U.S. following attacks on a U.S. Navy destroyer from al
Houthi-Saleh territory.
Outlook: Airstrikes and cross-border missiles attacks will decrease during the ceasefire, but local fighting will continue.
Security
Factions operating in al Houthi-Saleh territory may be attempting to increase regional tensions. Missiles fired from al Houthi-
Saleh territory targeted the USS Mason, a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer, on October 9, October 12, and possibly
October 15. The U.S. Navy targeted radar stations in al Houthi-Saleh territory with “limited self-defense strikes” on October
13 in response. A senior U.S. official said that the al Houthis were “unquestionably involved” in the attacks, but the
operatives directly responsible for the missile launches remain unknown. Iran may have provided the missiles or facilitated
the attacks, which advance Iranian strategic objectives in the region.
Outlook: The missile capabilities of the al Houthi-Saleh faction and affiliated groups operating in Yemen will continue to
threaten navigational freedom in the Bab al Mandab Strait, a key maritime chokepoint.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP militants continue to fight al Houthi-Saleh forces alongside tribal militias in southern Yemen. AQAP-affiliated Ansar al
Sharia clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in al Bayda governorate and assassinated an al Houthi-Saleh field commander in
Ibb governorate. AQAP strengthens its local ties by positioning itself against invading northern al Houthi-Saleh forces.
Outlook: AQAP’s base of support may diminish when al Houthi-Saleh forces do not threaten historic South Yemen territory.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
5. 5
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 12 OCT: Missiles
targeted the USS
Mason.
2) 10 OCT: AQAP
clashed with al Houthi-
Saleh forces in
Rada’a, al Bayda.
3) 12 OCT: Hadi
government forces
seized positions in al
Buqa’a city, Sa’ada.
4) 11 OCT: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces fired a
ballistic missile toward
southern Saudi Arabia
5) 11 OCT: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces fired a
ballistic missile toward
Ma’rib governorate.
6) 13 OCT: The U.S.
Navy struck missile
sites at Ras Isa,
Khokha, and Mokha.
2
3
5
4
1
6
6. 6
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Somalia’s parliamentary election process is failing to meet international standards. Galmudug State elected a former warlord
and top official from Mohamed Farah Aidid’s dictatorial regime, Abdi Quebydiid, to Somalia’s Upper House. The UN Mission
in Somalia (UNSOM) urged officials to disallow Quebydiid’s candidacy. Multiple regions failed to produce candidate lists that
met constitutional requirements. Lower House elections may be delayed beyond October 23.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn expanded restrictions imposed by his October 8 State of Emergency
declaration. The new restrictions limit foreign diplomats’ in-country movements and establish curfews in some areas.
Outlook: Somalia’s election process will produce a legislature that includes warlords and will conclude in early 2017.
Security
Regional conflicts threaten the stability of Galmudug State. Clashes between Puntland and Galmudug security forces killed
at least 11 security personnel and displaced thousands of civilians in Galkayo, the capital of Mudug region. Ahlu Sunna wa
al Jama’a (ASWJ), a Sufi Islamist paramilitary group, maintains control of Galgaduud region’s capital, Dhuusamareeb town,
and drove Galmudug and Somali National Army (SNA) forces from Godinlabe town on October 12.
Outlook: Clashes between armed groups will destabilize Galmudug state and may disrupt Lower House elections.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab militants are attempting to regain territory from African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali
National Army (SNA) forces in the Lower Shabelle region. Al Shabaab temporarily occupied Muri town in Lower Shabelle
region on October 16 and launched a second assault on the town on October 17. Al Shabaab and AMISOM forces also
exchanged mortar fire near Qoryooley city in Lower Shabelle on October 11, 14, and 16.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely challenge AMISOM forces for control of small towns but remains incapable of driving
government forces from major urban centers.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
7. 7
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
1) 11-16 OCT: Al
Shabaab and
AMISOM forces
exchanged mortar fire
near Qoryooley, Lower
Shabelle region.
2) 13 OCT: Al
Shabaab militants
detonated an IED
targeting regional
security forces near
Baidoa city.
3) 16 OCT: Al
Shabaab militants
temporarily seized
Muri town, Lower
Shabelle region.
4) 17 OCT: Suspected
al Shabaab militants
attacked the
governor’s residence
in Mandera County,
Kenya.
4
2
3
1
8. 8
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
A failed attempt to overthrow the Government of National Accord (GNA) sparked clashes between GNA-allied militias and
anti-GNA militias in Tripoli. The GNA has failed to provide the economic and governance benefits necessary to secure its
hold on the capital. Anti-GNA Islamist politicians attempted to seize the headquarters of a pro-GNA assembly on October
14. The attempted coup undermines the UN-backed GNA’s efforts to strengthen its hold on Libya’s state institutions and
counter the ascendant Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls eastern Libya.
Outlook: The LNA may capitalize on the chaos in Tripoli by advancing further west. GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj
may also increase efforts to ally with the LNA, which may spark backlash from the GNA’s current supporters.
Security
Tripoli may be on the verge of a security breakdown. The Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade (TRB), a powerful Salafi militia that
supports the anti-GNA coup, expanded its network of checkpoints throughout the capital after the coup. The TRB rivals the
militias from Misrata that provide the bulk of the GNA’s military force. Rising tensions in Tripoli may draw Misratan forces
away from the unfinished counter-ISIS fight in Sirte.
Outlook: The redirection of Misratan militias from Sirte to Tripoli would help ISIS to regenerate in central Libya.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS militants continue to operate throughout Sirte District after escaping the U.S.-backed siege on central Sirte city. GNA-
allied militias discovered an ISIS headquarters in Manara district, southern Sirte city, indicating that ISIS cells continue to
operate behind the current frontline.
Outlook: The diffusion of ISIS militants outside of Sirte city will likely result in a months-long guerilla war throughout Sirte
district.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA
9. 9
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
1) 14 OCT: Former
GNC politicians
occupied the State
Council headquarters
in Tripoli.
2) 14 OCT: GNA-allied
militias severed an
ISIS LOC in al Jiza,
Sirte.
3) 14-16 OCT: The
U.S. conducted 36
airstrikes in Sirte.
4) 16 OCT: GNA-allied
militias and the TRB
clashed in Tripoli.
5) 16 OCT: GNA-allied
militiamen seized ISIS
headquarters in
Manara, Sirte.
6) 17 OCT: BRSC
shelling killed three
civilians in Sidi
Hussein, Benghazi.
3
1 4
5
2
6
10. 10
| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
ISIS in Algeria may return to its previous state of dormancy after suffering a quick retaliation from security forces. The
Algerian military killed the emir of ISIS Wilayat Jaza’ir (Algeria) on October 13, shortly after the group’s first claimed attack
since August 2016. Wilayat Jaza’ir has not confirmed its emir’s death. Algerian forces also killed a lieutenant of AQIM emir
Abdelmalek Droukdel, who was responsible for the group’s financial operations, on October 9.
Outlook: ISIS in Algeria will seek to preserve and develop its relationships with groups operating in cross-border safe
havens in western Tunisia and Libya.
Uqba ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)
The AQIM network in western Tunisia remains capable of attacking Tunisian security forces. Uqba ibn Nafa’a militants
mobilized from mountain sanctuaries in order to conduct suicide attacks on military sites, according to Tunisian intelligence.
Outlook: Uqba ibn Nafa’a will attempt to conduct an attack that it can leverage for propaganda and recruitment.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) may be increasing attacks on Niger from a likely safe haven in
neighboring Mali. Suspected MUJAO militants kidnapped an American aid worker from his home in Niger on October 15.
Suspected MUJAO militants also attempted to storm a Nigerien prison containing Salafi-jihadi militants on October 17.
ISIS Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya (WGI), a Boko Haram faction with close ties to ISIS, is trying to distance itself from rival Boko
Haram factions. ISIS WGI released 21 of the Chibok school girls to the Nigerian government. ISIS WGI may be seeking
popular support by releasing the girls, who symbolize rival Boko Haram leader Abu Bakr Shekau’s brutality.
Outlook: AQIM-linked groups may escalate attacks on Niger, which hosts American, French, and German forces. ISIS WGI
will attempt to position itself as more moderate than Shekau’s faction but will still adhere to ISIS’s violent ideology.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL
11. 11
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 13 OCT: The
Algerian Army killed
the emir of ISIS
Wilayat Jaza’ir in
Oued Zhour, Skikda
Province, Algeria.
2) 11-12 OCT:
Spanish and
Moroccan security
forces arrested six
Moroccan ISIS
members throughout
Spain and Morocco in
a joint operation.
3) 17 OCT: The
Moroccan Army
arrested six Algerian
Army officers and
several Polisario Front
militants in El
Guerguerat, Western
Sahara.
1
3
2
12. 12
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
1) 17 OCT: Suspected
MUJAO militants
attacked a prison in
Koutoukalé, Niamey
Region, Niger.
2) 14 OCT: Suspected
MUJAO militants killed
two soldiers and
kidnapped an
American aid worker
in Abalak, Tahoua
Region, Niger.
3) 16 OCT: ISIS
Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya
attacked a joint
Nigerian and Nigerien
army encampment
near Gashigar, Borno
State, Nigeria.
2
3
1
13. 13
ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Possible military dimensions (PMD)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
14. 14
Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Paul Bucala
Iran analyst
paul.bucala@aei.org
(202) 888-6573
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran analyst
caitlin.pendleton@aei.org
(202) 888-6577
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569