Punjab: Can Congress beat the AAP groundswell? India Today-Axis Opinion Poll says possible

The Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Punjab by winning 49-55 seats in the Assembly election due early next year, according to the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll.

Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has witnessed both a massive interest by the voters as well as bitter dissent within, is a close second with 42-46 seats. In terms of vote share, while the Congress may command a third of Punjab's votes (33 per cent), the AAP will trail at 30.

The Congress tally, however, is still a few seats short of a simple majority in the 117-member state Assembly. However, the party is likely to form an alliance with Navjot Singh Sidhu's Aawaz-e-Punjab, which might manage to win a few seats and help the combine reach the magic figure of 59.

With a host of controversies, including corruption and allegations of drug peddling haunting them, the ruling combine of the Akali Dal and the BJP is staring at a possible rout with just 17-21 seats, while 3-7 seats may go to smaller parties.

AMARINDER SINGH NEXT CM?

In further boost for the Congress, the opinion poll says almost one-third of the state's voters (33 per cent) want Captain Amarinder Singh to return as Chief Minister. Singh was Punjab Chief Minister from 2002 to 2007.

The survey found that only 25 per cent of state's voters want incumbent Parkash Singh Badal of the Akali Dal to remain in power. Also, 58 per cent of the respondents rated Badal's performance as bad, while 29 per cent were satisfied with his tenure.

The incumbent Chief Minister's son as well as his deputy, Sukhbir Singh Badal, was picked by just three per cent of the voters as their next Chief Minister.

Kejriwal, who many believe is likely to desert Delhi if his party wins Punjab, was picked by just 16 per cent of those surveyed as their best bet.

The other names considered by those surveyed include Sidhu and AAP MP Bhagwant Mann tied at 8 per cent, Gurpreet Singh Ghuggi (3), HS Phoolka (1), and Sucha Singh Chhotepur (1).

THE DRUG MENACE

With agricultural production on the decline and lack of employment opportunities, Punjab has been battling drug addiction for a long time, especially among its youth.

A whopping 76 per cent of those surveyed by India Today-Axis said drugs is a major issue in the election next year. When asked who is responsible for the menace, an overwhelming 80 per cent of the respondents blamed the politicians mainly in the government.

Only a negligible minority (4 per cent) said the issue is the creation of the opposition, while one per cent blamed the media for making it a big deal. Fifteen per cent of the voters didn't know who to blame for the problem.

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Punjab's drug menace also reflects in the response to the question on what is the biggest election issue: 35 per cent of those surveyed said it's employment, while 39 per cent want more development in what used to be one of India's most prosperous states.

THE AAP FACTOR

That the AAP has already made its presence felt in Punjab will be an understatement. Since its landslide victory in Delhi last year, the party has been running an aggressive campaign to be seen as a viable alternative in Punjab against the Akali Dal-BJP combine and the Congress.

When asked if the AAP has given the best model of governance in Delhi, 36 per cent of the respondents said they were impressed. While 18 per cent were not sure, nearly half of those surveyed (46 per cent) were not sure of the AAP's performance in Delhi.

Also, one-fifth of the respondents (21 per cent) said the rebellion within the party in Punjab might hurt its chances while an equal number of people (22 per cent) said it will not matter. The majority of those surveyed were not sure which way the rebellion would go.

The AAP has had its share of turmoil in Punjab. From losing Navjot Singh Sidhu despite multiple claims of the cricketer-turned-politician joining the party to charging veteran Sucha Singh Chhotepur with corruption and forcing him to quit, the party has had a bumpy ride in the state.

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PM MODI'S PERFORMANCE

Both the Akali Dal and the BJP face a curious anti-incumbency in Punjab. While the former is the leading coalition partner in the state, the latter is not only an ally, but also forms the government at the Centre.

It is for this reason that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's performance also becomes a decisive factor in Punjab this year, and the BJP has little to be happy about here. While 39 per cent of those surveyed said Modi's performance has been good, 31 per cent said it was bad. Only five per cent rated it 'Very good'.

When asked if Modi has fulfilled his election promises, almost half the voters (49 per cent) ticked 'Not at all', 32 per cent said 'very few', while only 12 per cent were satisfied with the government at the Centre.

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THE RULING COMBINE

It was perhaps for this reason that a significant 45 per cent of the respondents said the BJP should break its alliance with the Akali Dal and fight the election on its own. One-fourth of the voters wanted the alliance to continue, while 29 per cent of them were not sure.