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Can Jimmie Johnson crack the century mark?

NASCAR, AutoRacing

Our experts weigh in on four of the biggest questions in NASCAR:

Turn 1: Will Jimmie Johnson reach 100 wins in his career?

Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst: It's actually not impossible considering he could race nine more years, average two wins per year, and be knocking on the door at 50. But it's a slippery slope for drivers in their 40s, and just assuming a couple of wins a year isn't practical. But having this discussion puts into perspective what an amazing career he has had.

Ryan McGee, ESPN.com: No, but it's not that he couldn't. I think it's entirely up to him. The number is reachable. Over the last five seasons, he's won 23. That same pace would do it. But I don't think there's any way he sticks around another five seasons.

John Oreovicz, ESPN.com: It would be a great storyline for NASCAR, but it's unlikely to happen. Johnson is 41 and needs 22 wins to hit the century. Among modern-era NASCAR greats, only Dale Earnhardt won that many races after he turned 42. Darrell Waltrip won 11, Mark Martin eight, Bill Elliott just four. Even Richard Petty claimed only 10 wins post-42. Johnson is athletically in better condition than those guys were, but the likelihood of him averaging three or more wins a year for the next seven years is pretty remote.

Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com: No. He's at 78. I don't see him racing more than four more years after this one and don't see him winning five each year.

Marty Smith, ESPN.com: If he wants to. But he'll have to race until he's at least 50. And I don't expect him to race until he's 50. He doesn't race for numbers or accolades, it's just not what fulfills him. I still can't even fathom that he's six wins away from tying Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Allison. That's inconceivable to me. And it's inconceivable to him, too. At heart, he's still just a dirt-bomb kid from SoCal whose success is founded in love from his parents and their desire to spend time with their three sons in the desert, away from the static of heavy machinery and school buses. And Johnson got a shot from Ricky Johnson and Herb Fishel and the Herzogs and Ricky Hendrick and Rick Hendrick and Jeff Gordon. And now he's Tom Brady in Nomex. If he's not the greatest ever, he's in the final sentences of the conversation.

Turn 2: Five Chase drivers (Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick) finished outside the top 30 at Charlotte. How many of them, and who, won't advance to the next round?

Craven: I'm worried about Austin Dillon and Joey Logano the most. I believe Harvick will battle his way forward and Chase Elliott could surprise, as he has the speed to win this weekend in Kansas. Denny Hamlin is a toss-up, and someone in the top eight will fall; that could be Kurt Busch.

McGee: The two young guys are probably in the most trouble. Harvick is at the bottom and his Chase has been three awful finishes and one win, but no one has been better in the elimination format than Happy, so no way I'm ruling him out until he's gone. He and Hamlin are weekly threats to win, and those two plus Logano are proven plate race winners. I really believe that Elliott and Dillon are both capable of winning at Talladega, too. But their sample size is tiny compared to the vets, so the older guys have the edge.

Oreovicz: My guess is three of the five won't make it. Of that group, certainly Harvick has the best chance to advance because he's the guy who has shown the ability to 'flip the switch' and win when necessary since the start of the elimination format Chase. Logano is the next best bet to move on to the round of 8, but Elliott would be the best story.

Pockrass: Three of them won't advance. Denny Hamlin wins Talladega and Chase Elliott scores enough points to get into the next round. Am I crazy to doubt Harvick? Probably.

Smith: It's almost impossible to speculate on this. Consistency may not apply to this equation, given such a short increment of time and the esteemed level of competition the drivers on the outside must supplant. There are 11 positions out there for the taking, and for drivers deep behind in points it may take wins to earn those spots. Harvick will win Kansas. That's just how that No. 4 bunch operates. They wreck or screw up on pit road one week, and then they come back seven days later and win. So he's in. Logano and Hamlin are strong everywhere, so I expect they'll get in. Chase Elliott is among the most consistent drivers in the sport, and Austin Dillon, in my opinion, made great strides as a racer this year. But those guys haven't yet won. Talladega is out there. It's anyone's guess. A lot like this question.

Turn 3: Did Richard Childress Racing do the right thing in giving Ryan Newman a contract extension?

Craven: Ryan finished second in the Chase a couple years back, has a solid résumé, and is definitely worthy of the investment. Most importantly, they have funding, which controls this entire discussion.

McGee: Sure. I know some RCR fans probably wanted to see something more daring, but Newman is solid and, more importantly, he's funded. No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

Oreovicz: RC strikes me as a guy who isn't comfortable with a lot of change. Newman isn't likely to win a championship at this stage of his career, but he still has plenty to offer the organization. Until Childress is ready to hire a young gun without the last name of Dillon, this was probably his best option.

Pockrass: It's the safe move. Newman is good as far as a consistent driver who can be a threat to win. But the sport needs more young stars, and this would have been a good opportunity for one of them.

Smith: Presuming the sponsors like Newman and the dollars are right, he did.

Turn 4: What does the No. 48 team's competitive ebb and flow this season say about NASCAR racing?

Craven: It illustrates how paper-thin the margins are between competing for wins and simply existing without much relevance. Racing today is more about fundamentals than ever before, Qualify well, have a perfect day on pit road, capitalize on restarts. Has anyone other than me noticed "execute" has become the key word in our sport? I prefer "Drive the hell out of it," but I'm afraid those days are gone.

McGee: You can't just throw a team out when it has a poor stretch of the season, even if that stretch covers half of that season. It used to be that if a team got off to a bad start in March and April, that was pretty much how it was going to be. Then it would work on its stuff for the next season and rebound. We just talked about RCR. That was the roller coaster forever. But these days not just drivers but entire organizations hit these slumps. In spring 2015 we were writing about how Joe Gibbs Racing couldn't get out of its own way and then it completely turned it around and won the Cup. We all said Hendrick was toast for 2016, and now it is bouncing back and the Chase hands everyone a reset button in September. Shorter in-season streaks that can be fixed? I like it.

Oreovicz: It could validate the theory that once a team wins a race early in the season, it concentrates its development program on being competitive in the Chase races, even if it comes at the expense of the regular season. Or it could just mean that Johnson and the 48 team got everything 100 percent correct on race day for the first time in several months. The sport is more competitive than ever these days, and teams have to get things just exactly perfect to win.

Pockrass: It says that the real season starts with Chicagoland and the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Smith: It's damn hard. That's what it says. It's hard to make it at all, and even harder to sustain it. Even the greatest team of its era -- and arguably the greatest sustained team ever -- is vulnerable to the inevitable fissures that can form when competitiveness wanes. Fast cars and trophies fix everything. But when those aren't as easy to come by, neither is patience. Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are rivaled only by the late '90s Evernham/Gordon union, and maybe Inman/Petty among the premier driver/crew chief tandems in NASCAR history. And from the outset they've had well-documented ups and downs. Through it all they manage to keep on winning.

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