On Dasara day, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a call to his Lucknow audience to go from yuddha (war) to Buddha, over 200 irate Dalits in his home State of Gujarat put the advice to practice. They converted to Buddhism — charging the ruling party of inaction against upper caste Hindus — putting the BJP on the defensive as never before.

With a variety of ongoing agitations across Gujarat, the BJP’s hopes for a return to power in next year’s Assembly election have come under a cloud. Its freshly-minted Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as well as State unit chief Jitubhai Vaghani seem clueless on how to lead the party forward. It is surprising that the greenhorns have been burdened with an enormous task despite their inexperience.

Descending here on Friday is AAP convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, fishing in the BJP’s electorally-troubled waters.

The Dalits’ conversion came at a time when large sections of the BJP’s electoral base are agitating for one reason or the other. The Patidars, comprising about 15 per cent of voters, were the first off the block, launching a stir in July 2015, demanding reservation. They were quickly followed by the OBCs, who are nearly 45 per cent of the State’s population, opposing any possible cut in their quota pie.

The BJP has tried every trick in its armour to keep these people in good humour, or at least in check, ahead of elections, but it has not been particularly successful.

During his trip to Gujarat last month, Modi reached out to tribals, who form 15 per cent of the population, but this is seen to have produced only mixed results.

The incident on July 11 — when some Dalit youths were thrashed by cow vigilantes at Una in Gir-Somnath district — has been the biggest blow to the BJP. It sparked a nationwide outrage that refuses to die. The BJP’s move to replace Chief Minister Anandiben Patel with Rupani seems to have only worsened the situation.

The Patidars, who have already been boycotting government and ministers’ functions since last year, successfully sabotaged an Amit Shah extravaganza in Surat in September.

The OBCs, opposing any preferential treatment to the Patels, continued to agitate across platforms. On October 2, they tried a rail roko, although the authorities had rounded up many of their activists.

Thus, with nearly 82 per cent of Gujarat’s population agitating against the government, the ruling party is clearly in trouble.

Similar tactic

With the main opposition Congress reduced to issuing statements, the AAP is sensing an opening in Gujarat. Hence Kejriwal’s three-day visit starting tomorrow. Ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Kejriwal had, during his whirlwind tour of Gujarat, staged a high-voltage drama on the Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar highway, virtually eclipsing Modi from prime time TV news for a couple of weeks. This time, as Delhi CM, he is ready for another bout here. He has already toured the State twice in the recent past.

The Gujarat government has said it will shut down all internet service across the State on Sunday, October 16, purportedly to prevent the leak of papers of a competitive exam to be held that day. The AAP, in a statement issued here today, said the real reason is Kejriwal’s rally to be held in Surat the same day.

Last year also, at the height of the Patidar agitation, the State government had resorted to the same tactic, but it had ended up cutting a sorry figure.

It was in Surat in September that the angry Patidars had forced Shah and Rupani to cut short their speeches and leave the venue. Apparently, the BJP government is not too keen on Kejriwal’s rally being a success.

Kejriwal is slated to visit Mehsana, a Patidar hub that is the home district of both Modi and Anandiben, as also Gandhinagar, which is Amit Shah’s base. Besides, he will be meeting Dalit and OBC leaders. However, despite the high-decibel propaganda in 2014, the AAP had secured only 1.2 per cent of total valid votes polled in Gujarat.

But then, it was Modi at the helm in the State. This time, with Rupani and Vaghani still grappling with their new posts, it remains to be seen how much traction the Modi-Shah duo will provide the BJP in Gujarat.

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