Rick Porcello makes his final start of the regular season for the Boston Red Sox on Friday night when he faces the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN). Porcello (22-4) leads the American League in wins and is among the leaders in ERA and strikeouts.
How strong of a candidate is he for the AL Cy Young Award?
Consider that if Porcello does not lose Friday’s start, he will join Pedro Martinez (1999 and 2002) and Roger Clemens (1986) as the only pitchers in Red Sox history with at least 20 wins and fewer than five losses in one season. Clemens won the MVP and the Cy Young (the latter unanimously) in 1986; Martinez won the Cy Young unanimously in 1999 and finished second in the voting in 2002.
Of course, the pitchers win stat was more valued then than now.
Based on the pitchers wins above replacement stat, Porcello is the sixth-best AL pitcher this season at 5.0 WAR, just ahead of Cole Hamels of the Texas Rangers. Two pitchers -- Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians (6.5) and Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers (6.3) -- have exceeded six wins above replacement this season.
In the previous five seasons, the AL’s leader in pitchers WAR won the Cy Young three times: Verlander in 2011, Kluber in 2014 and Dallas Keuchel in 2015. In each of the other two seasons, the Cy Young Award winner was within 0.6 WAR of the league leader.
It’s worth noting, though, that in the seasons the WAR leader won the Cy Young, there was clear separation between the winner’s WAR total and that of other pitchers. In those three seasons, the average difference between No. 1 and No. 2 in WAR averaged 0.9 WAR.
This year appears to be more of a muddled race, as we noted in this article two weeks ago.
Porcello has been the winning pitcher in 23.9 percent of the Red Sox’s 92 wins this season, which the Elias Sports Bureau notes is the highest percentage of any pitcher this season.
Porcello leads the AL in WHIP (0.99), strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.1) and opponent OPS (.628). He’s second in the league in fielding independent pitching (3.37), fourth in innings pitched (217) and fifth in ERA (3.11).
Career-best year for Porcello
Regardless of the outcome of the Cy Young voting, Porcello has had the best season of his career in 2016. His career high for WAR is 4.0, in 2014 with the Tigers, and his career high for innings was 204 2/3, also in 2014.
Some of Porcello’s success can be explained by his performance with runners in scoring position. Although he has allowed a .259 batting average with runners in scoring position (47th in the major leagues), he has allowed a .333 slugging percentage with men in scoring position (16th).
Of the 22 home runs Porcello has given up this season, 16 have been solo shots and the other six have been two-run homers. Eleven of the past 12 home runs he has allowed have been with bases empty.
He’s one of 10 qualified starters who hasn’t allowed a home run with at least two runners on base this season.
Porcello is throwing more pitches in the strike zone than in any previous season. And he’s getting first-pitch strikes at the second-best rate of his career. That has helped him cut his walk rate from 5.2 percent last season to 3.5 percent this season. The .265 OBP he has allowed is more than 40 points lower than his previous low.
Did you know?
If Porcello gets the victory Friday, he will be the sixth pitcher in Red Sox history to finish a season at least 19 games over .500, Elias Sports Bureau research shows. Cy Young did it three times (1901: 33-10, 1902: 32-11, 1903: 28-9), Smoky Joe Wood in 1912 (34-5), Boo Ferriss in 1946 (25-6), Clemens in 1986 (24-4) and Martinez in 1999 (23-4).