Was Goebbels Right?

From the day my precious Sylvie, now nearly five years old, first understood me, I’ve taught her that the two most important things to understand are “be nice, and don’t lie.”  Generally speaking, it’s worked well for me, and the vast majority of people throughout history.  Regarding the latter, there’s a good reason why it’s one of the Ten Commandments, as lying, for all intents and purposes, is the root cause of destruction.

“White lies,” or “fibs” may not be as harmful, but the process of propagating even the smallest lie often leads to far greater evils.  Such as my favorite example, the movie Fargo; in which, in the process of orchestrating a seemingly harmless “fake kidnapping,” the protagonist  unwittingly catalyzes a chain of events leading to the death or imprisonment of everyone involved.

Unfortunately, the end game of history’s largest, most destructive fiat Ponzi scheme is upon us.  Itself a lie of epic proportions, the means being utilized to sustain it, to its last dying, can-kicking breath, takes the concepts of deceit, fraud, and racketeering to new, unprecedented levels.  Which calls to mind Hitler’s “Reich Minister of Propaganda,” Joseph Goebbels, who infamously stated the following.

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.  It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie; and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

In a nutshell, this is what the world is facing today, as a handful of “elites” with all manner of “weapons of mass destruction” – principally, of the financial ilk – destroy the masses.  Who, until recently, staunchly believed politicians, Central bankers, and corporate CEOs were their “allies.”  Many still do, as the lies have not affected all equally; and in the case of those with means, who invest in blatantly rigged financial markets – particularly, stocks, bonds, and Precious Metals – being “willfully ignorant” has been the optimally strategy, financially and mentally.

However, as Popeye famously stated, “that’s all I can stands, I can’t stands no more.”  Which is exactly why the masses are revolting, worldwide – initially, by voting against incumbent governments, as the shroud covering such lies falls, exposing the destruction they have wrought.  In Gerald Celente’s words, “when people lose everything, and have nothing left to lose…they lose it.”  Which is exactly where the world is heading, as more and more people realize the reason they are suffering are the lies – and theft -perpetrated by their ”leaders.”

Politically, last year’s Greek “OXI” vote and Catalonian secession referendum started the anti-establishment ball rolling, followed by this year’s EU-destroying Brexit referendum this June.  And when Hillary Clinton is defeated in November – with an impact I expect to be “Brexit times ten”; followed by Mariano Rajoy in Spain, Matteo Renzi in Italy, Francois Hollande in France, and Angela Merkel in Germany, it will become crystal clear that Goebbels was NOT right, at least over any meaningful period of time.  Heck, yesterday’s “most embarrassing White House event ever” – the overwhelming override of Obama’s JASTA, or Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism, veto, by 97-1 in the Senate and 348-77 in the House – should tell you all you need to know about how the people really feel, and how far they’ll go to shun those telling them otherwise.  And by the way, the “one” Senator who voted against the override was former Majority Leader Harry Reid, whilst the two who abstained were none other than Hillary’s Vice Presidential running mate, Tim Kaine, and…wait for it…Bernie Sanders!

That said, the “short-term” can, and has been, heavily influenced by epic, unprecedented, far-reaching fraud – which thankfully, is becoming “shorter” with each passing day of political, economic, and monetary collapse.  To that end, no lie, short of anything emanating from Hillary Clinton’s mouth, tops yesterday’s OPEC “production cap” announcement, just one day after essentially all involved party claimed such an agreement was untenable.

Again, I spent ten years as an energy analyst before joining the Precious Metals world – during which, OPEC meetings (when OPEC actually had material market power) were as important to my livelihood as Fed meetings today.  And over the years, I watched OPEC lie about production quotas in a manner that even the most poorly behaved five-year old would blush at.

Frankly, it’s hard to believe anyone believes a word they say – much like the Fed promising rate hikes for three years, but never actually launching them.  Which is exactly what former Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday, in noting how they the FOMC is “pretty good at conjuring up reasons not to act.”  Heck, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer himself, who single-handedly catalyzed – and thus, abetted – a month long Precious Metals raid by saying Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole comments were “consistent with the possibility of two rate hikes this year,” just yesterday – in a speech to, I kid you not, college students – espoused “I don’t want to raise the interest rate too much”; and better yet, “I think we should raise it at some point, but I don’t know when.”  Does that sound “hawkish” to you?  Or LOL, a reason to avoid Precious Metals, particularly when his LIE about two rates hikes was called out mere weeks after spewing it?

I mean geez, ultra-mainstream Wall Street economist Don Coxe published a report yesterday titled “seeing Santa Claus is more likely than a Fed rate hike!”  This, as the U.S-led IMF published a report urging extreme fiscal stimulus, as “the breadth of the decline in inflation across countries, and the fact that it is stronger in the tradable goods sectors, underscores the global nature of disinflationary forces.”  And don’t forget Bank of England governor Minouche Shafik, who also – yesterday – said she expects interest rates to “hover around 0% in perpetuity”; and thus, “other forms of QE will become standard tools of Central bankers.”  Not convinced yet?  How about Tidjane Thiam, the CEO of Europe’s “other Deutsche Bank,” Credit Suisse, espousing how European banks are in a “very fragile situation”; and thus, are “not really investable as a sector.”  Or China’s richest man, retail mogul Wang Jianlin, saying Chinese real estate is the “biggest bubble in history”

To that end, the $64,000 question, in my mind, is when Standard and Poor’s follows through with downgrading Deutsche Bank from the, LOL, investment grade status it still holds, given that it downgraded DB’s outlook from “stable” to “negative” more than three months ago?  Are they afraid there will be ramifications of such a TRUTHFUL action – like when they stripped the U.S. government of its, ROFLMAO, “triple-A” credit rating in 2011?  I guess we’ll know soon – but frankly, I think the professional pressure on them, and Moody’s, to be in front of the biggest bankruptcy in corporate history, will be far more powerful than the political pressure to “bud out.”  Let alone, as the politicians pushing them, like Hillary Clinton, are about to be voted out themselves.

Back to today’s lie to end all lies, when I think of how outlandish this OPEC fabrication is, I can only think of the guy in Forrest Gump on the park bench – who, after Forrest tell him he’s the CEO of Bubba Gump Shrimp Corp, says’ “I’ve heard some whoppers in my time, but that tops them all.”  As well, that all I’ve said about the blatantly obvious creation of a de facto “oil PPT” is true, given my acute understanding of just how much carnage – politically, economically, socially, and monetarily – plunging oil prices create.  Let alone, in a world already on the edge of the abyss.

Essentially, OPEC saw oil prices plunge to the $43s when it announced Tuesday that no deal, of any sort, was tenable.  Thus, they met all day Wednesday – unquestionably, with “consultation” from the world’s top liars, to create the ultimate, Goebbels-esque fabrication, of how production was to be “capped.”  The only problem is, not only has no actual contract been made – written or verbal – but the details haven’t even been sorted out yet.  In other words, a pure, unadulterated lie – just like Stanley Fischer last month; who, seeing gold soar and rates plunge after Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech, rushed to CNBC’s studios to tell Steve LIESman the speech was being misinterpreted, as it was “consistent with the possibility of two rate hikes this year.”

Regarding said “details,” the MSM propaganda claiming OPEC will “cut” production from 33.7 million bpd to 32.5 million – when in actuality, a “targeted range” of 32.5 to 33.0 million bpd has been proposed.  Not to mention, that not only is 33.7 million bpd the highest production level OPEC has ever achieved – last month – but in actuality, they only produced 33.2 million bpd.  As it turns out, 33.7 million is what the OPEC nations claim to have produced.  However, official production estimates are not based on such unsubstantiated claims, but actual “market sources” hired to figure what was actually produced.  Which, as it turns out, was just 33.2 million bpd in August – which was not only OPEC’s highest ever production level, but is just 0.2 million bpd above the high end of the proposed “target range.”  Which, as noted above, was entirely, “conveniently” ignored by the MSM.  In other words, as Zero Hedge puts it, the difference between “GAAP” and “non-GAAP” production is enormous – and thus, the difference between actual oil hitting the physical market, and fabricated “paper oil.”

Better yet, said “deal” includes exemptions for Iran (wasn’t this the reason no deal was announced a day before) – as well as Libya and Nigeria, enabling them to produce “at maximum levels that make sense.”  In other words, there’s no way of knowing how much they’ll produce, particularly in light of Iran’s extremely ambitious, and highly public, growth plan.

And did I mention that said “deal” won’t even go into effect until after OPEC’s official bi-annual meeting on November 30^th?  That is, if OPEC’s 12 members actually agree upon individual quotas – like Iraq, who mere hours after the “deal” was announced, claimed its actual production is 300,000 bpd higher than OPEC assumes – and thus, their quota should be 300,000 bpd higher.  In other words, per what I noted above about the difference between actual (record-high) August production of 33.2 million bpd and the actual proposed “target range of 32.5 to 33.0 million bpd, if Iraq actually produces 300,000 bpd more, it would eliminate the entire, supposed “production cut.”  Or “cap”; or “freeze”; or whatever Goebbels-esque term you want to call it.

Oh, and did I mention NON-OPEC – which presumably will pump full-out to take advantage of higher prices.  Thus, offsetting – likely, quite rapidly – whatever actual OPEC “cut”; “cap”; or “freeze” actually takes place, if any.  I mean geez, the best OPEC could do to address this giant pink elephant in the room, in their haste to get the algos to push prices higher; and thus, prevent their immediate financial and political collapses; was to say they would present this deal to non-OPEC nations – like Russia and LOL, the United States, mere weeks after Congress passed the JASTA bill – “hoping” they will cut, cap, or freeze production as well.  Yeah, I’m sure the thousands of U.S. fracking companies on their financial deathbeds will join in with their mortal Middle Eastern enemies, LOL.  As opposed to what any smart businessman would, and will, do.  Which is, to “unleash the frack-log” of shut-in production with a fury, and rapidity, unlike any in E&P history.

Not to mention, the other giant pink elephant of compliance, given that OPEC has lied about every production agreement it has ever made.  Let alone, as all OPEC nations are on their financial deathbeds, as never before.  And thus, have more incentive to cheat than at any time in their sordid, pathetic history.  In other words, this “deal” is not a blatant fraud, which doesn’t even qualify as a “letter of intent,” in my view.  Which inevitably, will collapse as miserably as any in the history of collusion.  Only this time, it’s not just OPEC that are involved, but the entire, Hillary Clinton led “powers that be.”

And by the way, to demonstrate just how ridiculously suppressed the “unfavored” Precious Metals markets are – relative to oil, which the “powers that be” desperately need to be strong, consider the following.  Over the past decade, crude oil prices have plunged from $85/bbl to $46/bbl, or 45%; whilst gold has surged, suppression notwithstanding, from $600/oz to $1,320/oz, or 120%.  This amidst an unprecedented global economic collapse, monetary inflation, political instability, and some of the most devastating financial shocks in generations.  Which, I might add, the vast majority of the world, per the aforementioned anti-establishment votes, know are just getting started.  And yet, crude oil has risen more than 4% on 96 separate trading days over that period, compared to just nine for gold.

Better yet, when 2008 is excluded, when several of gold’s big up days were simply the recouping of some of the Cartel’s most violent attacks ever, crude oil’s 4% up days – including 17 of more than 6% (yesterday, oil was up 5%) still numbered 76; compared to…drum roll please…four for gold, including none more than 4%.  Yes, my friends, the ultimate safe haven, which has been one of the world’s best performing asset classes over the past decade, amidst an environment more conducive to PM investment than at any time in generations, has only risen 4% on four of the past 2,500 trading days.   And FYI, if I calculated the amount of times it traded at or around 1% – i.e., the Cartel’s daily “cap” nearly 99% of the time – it would probably amount to the hundreds.

And by the way, isn’t it “funny” how the “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” rose via the prototypical “dead ringer” on Tuesday, when oil prices plunged because NO DEAL occurred; and Wednesday, when said “deal” hit the tape?  Or how the market riggers have blatantly commandeered the API (private) and DOE (government) oil inventory data, to create weekly algorithm price surges, in a market in which demand is falling whilst supply and inventories are at record highs?  As opposed to Precious Metals, of course, which NEVER get to enjoy favorable supply/demand data, despite demand hitting all-time highs, whilst supply declines, and above ground, available-for-sale inventories sit at record lows?

Sorry if I sound emotional, but aside from being an analyst, I’m a human being, too.  Which is why the frustration and anger I’ve felt every day for 15 years – and the mental exhaustion, from having to report on such criminality – makes it difficult, at times, to remain detached.  However, if I’ve helped you to understand the TRUTH of what the investment world has become – and consequently, inspired action to protect yourself from what’s coming – it will have been all worth it.  To that end, if there’s one thing I have zero trouble with – other than the fact that I only do it, on average, 5½ hours per day – is sleep.  As knowing I’ve protected myself personally, and done everything in my power to advise others to do the same, I enjoy the “sleep of the just.”