Fall 2016 Bay Area restaurant preview

So far, the year of restaurants has been marked with a spate of high-profile debuts (Mister Jiu’s, In Situ, Tartine Manufactory, et al.) and a number of unexpected demises. The latter has been particularly noticeable in SoMa and Mid-Market, where several ambitious projects (Cadence, Oro, Bon Marche and Volta) have all closed mere months after opening.

Across the city, restaurants — both established and new — are complaining about San Francisco’s staffing shortages, skyrocketing rents, rising costs and so on. Don’t expect the noise to subside, either. In January 2017, employer health-care expenditures will be required to be made 100 percent irrevocable in accordance with San Francisco’s Health Care Security Ordinance. In July 2017, San Francisco’s minimum wage will rise to $14 an hour.

While such moves are clearly positive for employees, Golden Gate Restaurant Association Executive Director Gwyneth Borden says that in an industry with tight profit margins, “it makes things more difficult” for owners.

“Everybody’s stressed about it. The glut. The staffing. The pricing,” says Paul Einbund, who will open his own restaurant this fall after years running wine service at some of the city’s best restaurants, such as Coi, Frances and Octavia.

Despite the challenges, the autumnal months are shaping up to be a busy time for Bay Area restaurant openings. Einbund’s new restaurant, to be named the Morris, is just one of many highly anticipated restaurants; it is scheduled to open Monday, Oct. 3, in San Francisco’s former Slow Club (2501 Mariposa St.).

Like Einbund, a number of other industry vets are striking out on their own. Former Tacolicious chef Telmo Faria will embrace his Portuguese roots at his forthcoming Uma Casa , set in Noe Valley’s old Incanto (1550 Church St.).

The husband-and-wife team of Kyle and Katina Connaughton hopped around the world (Japan, England) prior to settling in Healdsburg to open Single Thread (131 North St.), a fine-dining restaurant and inn with direct ties to their Sonoma County farm.

More big names are headed to Wine Country, too. Cockscomb chef Chris Cosentino will debut a new restaurant — Acacia House — in St. Helena’s Las Alcobas hotel (1915 Main St.), which is set to open in January. The offal master also has his eyes set on Portland, Ore., where he’s working on another new project.

Video game mogul Kenzo Tsujimoto, who owns Napa winery Kenzo Estate, will be opening his first U.S. restaurant in November. Named Kenzo (1339 Pearl St., Napa), it will be a high-end kaiseki restaurant, run by Japanese superchef Hiroyuki Kanda, whose eponymous Tokyo restaurant has received a perfect three Michelin stars for nine years straight.

Kenzo will be just one of many Japanese projects in the Bay Area this fall.

In San Francisco’s Tenderloin, Hitachino & Wagyu (639 Post St.) will be Noriyuki Sugie’s homage to Japanese craft beer and beef. Though it has been repeatedly delayed, Sugie is aiming to open before the end of the year.

Hayes Valley’s True Sake team has also seen delays with its sake bar and restaurant, True Cup (8 Octavia St.), but they, too, hope to open by the end of 2016. A few blocks away, the Starling (388 Fulton St.) will be an omakase sushi joint from former Akiko’s chef Adam Tortosa.

The SoMa neighborhood will also be seeing some new omakase action, with the addition of Arsenal (715 Brannan St.), the first San Francisco restaurant from Los Angeles native Erik Sun. The restaurant will also feature a tasting menu of beef, thanks to certification in Kobe and Hokkaido snow beef.

Two high-profile modern Indian restaurants are en route. August 1 Five (524 Van Ness Ave.) is the brainchild of Hetal Shah and chef Manish Tyagi, formerly of Washington, D.C.,’s celebrated Rasika. In the Mission, Jessi and Jennifer Singh will open the first West Coast outpost of their popular New York restaurant, Babu Ji, which will be taking over the Nostra space (280 Valencia St.).

If there’s another intertwining theme to be found among the upcoming class of restaurant openings, it’s spinoffs. More established restaurant owners are branching out, knowing that measured expansion can potentially mean an increase in profits.

The Namu team has two offshoots in the works — fast-casual spot Namu Stonepot (553 Divisadero St.) and a noodle joint/brewery in the Dogpatch, Namu Noodle (2405 Third St.).

Lers Ros owner Tom Silargorn will open Esan Classic (743 Larkin St.), which will focus on northeastern Thai cuisine. Ryan Scott’s latest project will be a neighborhood tavern in the Castro called Finn Town (2251 Market St.).

Adriano Paganini — who already runs a fleet of restaurants, including Delarosa, Beretta and Lolinda — has (at least) three more projects in the works. There’s the Bird (115 New Montgomery St.), a downtown fried chicken sandwich joint, as well as two as-of-yet unnamed projects: a restaurant on the ground floor of a new condo property in Hayes Valley (450 Hayes St.) and a Mexican restaurant in the former Betelnut space (2030 Union St.), located next to Belga, another of his restaurants.

Over in Oakland, Camino’s Russell Moore and Allison Hopelain are adding a second, more casual restaurant to their repertoire, the Kebabery (4201 Market St.), which is set to open in late October. Bay Wolf (3853 Piedmont Ave.) will rise again under new owner Rich Wood (Wood Tavern) as the Wolf, while Nido’s Silvia and Cory McCollow are working on an ambitious outdoor project, Nido’s Backyard (104 Oak St.), which will be located in a parking lot a few doors down from their Mexican restaurant.

So, how will these new arrivals fare in the face of increased competition and the always-difficult odds?

While there’s not a silver bullet for success, the GGRA’s Borden says that the sweet spot is increasingly those restaurants that have a neighborhood feel, but are also a strong allure for people to come across town.

“It’s never gonna be easy,” says Einbund. “If it were, everyone would do it.”