PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - Global Drug Forecast valued at $58.7 billion by 2025 and Market Analysis

Major Players in Type 2 Diabetes Shifting Focus to Pricing to Maintain Market Share, says GlobalData 
The highly mature type 2 diabetes (T2D) market, which is forecast to be valued at $58.7 billion by 2025, will see pharmaceutical companies prioritizing competitive pricing in order to offset the impact of patent expiries ahead of improving existing products, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.

According to the company’s report*, human insulins and many insulin analogs are currently off patent or will soon lose their patents. The patents for Humulin and Novolin expired in 2001 and 2002, respectively. More recent patent losses include Eli Lill’ys Humalog (insulin lispro) in 2013, Novo Nordisk’s NovoLog/NovoRapid (insulin aspart) in 2014, and Sanofi’s Lantus (insulin glargine) in 2014-2015. Lantus is already beginning to suffer erosion to the first to market insulin biosimilar, Eli Lilly’s Abasaglar (insulin glargine).
Jesus Cuaron, Ph.D., PPM, GlobalData’s Senior Analyst covering Cardiovascular and Metabolic Disorders, explains: “Sanofi, historically a major player in the T2D space, is a good example of a company which has turned its attention to price rather than therapeutic value as the late-stage pipeline becomes saturated with me-too drugs. The company’s recently marketed drug Lyxumia (lixisenatide) was launched at a heavy discount to rival glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), AstraZeneca’s Byetta (exenatide) and Novo Nordisk’s Victoza (liraglutide).

“As Lyxumia is the fourth-to-market GLP-1RA product, with a low level of differentiation in the GLP-1RA space, Sanofi had to offer a competitive price in order to win market share. With health systems in many markets facing cost pressures today, this is likely a strategy that other companies will adopt with their me-too drugs that are in late-stage development.”
Although a waning factor, major players in the T2D market are also responding to the emergence of insulin biosimilars by offering improvements on existing therapies. Sanofi also recently launched Toujeo (insulin glargine, U300), a superior version of its own product Lantus, in addition to developing a fixed-dose combination of Lantus and its Lyxumia (lixisenatide) in order to protect its franchise.
Cuaron notes: “In addition to recently launched Toujeo, Sanofi is developing a biosimilar candidate of its own: SAR-342434. Currently in Phase III trials, SAR-342434 is an insulin lispro biosimilar to Eli Lilly’s Humalog.
“Overall, GlobalData believes that Novo Nordisk will maintain its lead in the insulin market by 2025, with its several marketed insulin analogs and ultra-rapid acting insulin, FIAsp (faster-acting insulin aspart), which is currently in Phase III trials.”

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*PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2025
This report provides analysis of the type 2 diabetes treatment space across the nine major markets of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, China, and India, including annualized market data from 2015 and forecast to 2025.
This report was built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GlobalData’s team of industry experts.
PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2025

Summary

The type 2 diabetes market is mature and crowded with inexpensive generics. Despite being marked by a late-stage pipeline filled with me-too drugs, this market will undergo substantial growth between 2015 and 2025, almost doubling over this period. The main drivers of growth will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence and physicians’ efforts to delay disease progression and reduce the costly burden of diabetic complications through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs. We anticipate that the type 2 diabetes market will experience a shift in the classes of drugs that are preferred by physicians. Rapid uptake of drugs from the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) class and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2I) class will occur; while dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4Is) will continue to grow, but at a much slower rate than previous years. GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2Is will experience the fastest growth of all classes at a CAGR of 12.2% and 13.0% respectively.

Highlights

Key Questions Answered

- Although the T2D market has numerous well-established therapies, it is marked by the presence of a number of unmet needs in current treatments. What are the main unmet needs in this market? Will the drugs under development fulfil the unmet needs of the T2D market?
- The late-stage T2D pipeline is heavily populated with me-too drugs from the classes of GLP-1RAs, DPP-4Is, and SGLT-2Is. Despite this, an oral GLP-1RA formulation and an osmotic pump which delivers subcutaneous exenatide for one year at a time are expected to be game changers in the GLP-1RA class. Both are in Phase III clinical trials and are expected to increase compliance among T2D patients. Will the late-stage drugs make a significant impact on the T2D market? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales at the highest CAGR, and why?
- The diagnosed prevalence of T2D in the world skyrocketed in the past 10 years and will continue increasing at the fast pace. How will epidemiological changes impact the growth of the future market?

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Key Findings

- The main driver of the enormous expansion of the T2D market will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence, which is attributable to increased life expectancy and an increasingly sedentary and stressful lifestyle.
- The second largest driver will be the physicians’ efforts to delay disease progression through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs.
- With the recent therapeutic guidelines putting emphasis on a patient-tailored approach in treating type 2 diabetes, pharmaceutical companies will achieve considerable success with their me-too drugs.
- In the future, companies will have to shift their focus towards competitive pricing, “niche” drugs aimed at smaller patient groups, and drugs that increase patient compliance (through more convenient administration).
- To date, no drug has demonstrated sustainable efficacy in the treatment of T2D. This unmet need presents a large opportunity for investment by drug developers.

Scope

- Overview of T2D, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
- Annualized T2D therapeutics market revenue, annual cost of therapy and treatment usage pattern data from 2015 and forecast for ten years to 2025.
- Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the T2D therapeutics market.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global T2D therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to - 
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline. Additionally a list of acquisition targets included in the pipeline product company list.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global T2D therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global T2D therapeutics market in future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Track drug sales in the global T2D therapeutics market from 2015-2025.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

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