Interesting week in the polling averages, with Hillary Clinton picking up new steam in the national polling, while simultaneously losing about a single point to Donald Trump in most battleground states.
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
9/23 |
9/15 |
8/30 |
8/17 |
7/28 |
7/19 |
6/30 |
6/10 |
5/12 |
US |
C+4.3 |
C+3.6 |
C+6.6 |
C+8.6 |
C+1.3 |
C+2.5
|
C+7 |
C+4.6 |
C+3.6 |
AZ (11) |
T+2 |
T+2 |
T+2 |
TIED |
TIED |
TIED |
C+1 |
C+1 |
C+3 |
CO (9) |
C+4 |
C+6 |
C+8 |
C+7
|
C+5 |
C+5 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
FL (29) |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+3 |
C+2 |
C+6 |
C+2 |
C+4 |
GA (16) |
T+3 |
T+1 |
T+2 |
T+1 |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+5 |
IA (6) |
T+2 |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
MI (16) |
C+5 |
C+7 |
C+8 |
C+8 |
C+6 |
C+6 |
C+8 |
C+8 |
C+11 |
MO (10) |
T+8 |
T+5 |
T+4 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
T+6 |
T+3 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
NC (15) |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+3 |
NV (6) |
TIED |
TIED |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+2 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
NH (4) |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+7 |
C+6 |
C+5 |
C+4 |
C+6 |
C+7 |
C+10 |
OH (18) |
TIED |
C+1 |
C+2 |
C+2 |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+1 |
C+3 |
PA (20) |
C+6 |
C+7 |
C+7 |
C+7 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+7 |
VA (13) |
C+7 |
C+8 |
C+9 |
C+8 |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+13 |
WI (10) |
C+5 |
C+6 |
C+9 |
C+9 |
C+8 |
C+9 |
C+10 |
C+12 |
C+12 |
Trump remains underwater in too many key battleground states to be truly viable: Colorado (38 percent), Michigan (37 percent), New Hampshire (37 percent), Pennsylvania (39.8 percent), Virginia (38 percent), and Wisconsin (37 percent).
Trump could win every other battleground state, but without winning at least one of the above, he cannot win. Or put another way, to get to 270, Trump needs to win at least one state in which he is mired below 40 percent.
And given that public opinion doesn’t change much, now do you see why I am so confident?
Last cycle, Barack Obama’s disastrous first-debate performance cost him … two points in the polls. Next week, we get to see how Monday’s debate plays out.
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