Hermine could end Florida's unusual 11-year hurricane drought

Tens of thousands of Floridians could come face-to-face with their first hurricane ever Thursday if the state's remarkable dry streak comes to an end.

Tropical Storm Hermine is forecast to make landfall either as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane Thursday afternoon or evening, likely in the Big Bend region of Florida, the National Hurricane Center said.

If Hermine reaches hurricane strength before or at landfall, it would be the first hurricane to hit the Sunshine State since Wilma in October 2005, some 142 months ago. Wilma killed 5 people in the U.S. and caused more than $20 billion in damage.

Since Wilma hit Florida, the state's population has risen by about 2 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Since 2010 alone, the number of residents in the state grew by 7.8%.

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That's a huge chunk of new Floridians who've never endured a hurricane.

And it's all just dumb luck: Overall, 10 tropical storms have hit the state since Wilma made landfall, none as a hurricane at landfall, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.

But the luck is just that, said scientist Timothy Hall of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

"It’s a truly unusual hurricane-free streak, given the state’s 1,260-mile coastline and the fact that 40% of recorded hurricanes up to 2010 barreled into Florida," Hall said in an interview with the Tallahassee Democrat this summer.

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It's not just Florida that's been lucky: The U.S. has only recorded four hurricane strikes in the past seven years: That's the fewest in any seven-year stretch since records began a few years before Abraham Lincoln was elected president in 1860.

FEMA and the hurricane center frequently remind people "it only takes one." Even in a season with few hurricanes such as 1992, Andrew still smashed into Florida and more than 20 years later remains one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to make landfall in the U.S.

"The farther we get from the last hurricane, the closer we get to the next one," hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.