All eyes in the commodities world will be on
Forecasts differ but there is near consensus among leading investment banks that the reported loss, after asset-value write-downs and costs associated with mine closures, will come in at around $6.5 billion for the financial year which ended on June 30.
Two years ago when BHP Billiton was enjoying the last hurrah of the mining boom it reported a profit of $13.4 billion, but after that it's been a downhill run for the company which has been hit by lower profits for most of its commodities, including iron ore, copper, coal and oil.
First sign that the company was being hurt by collapsing demand for its raw materials came 12 months ago when its annual profit slipped to $1.9 billion, but since then BHP Billiton has been buffeted by severe headwinds which have challenged management and triggered a mini shareholder revolt.
What angered shareholders was the breaking of a promise to never abandon a so-called progressive dividend, effectively a promise to maintain or increase the annual payout, but to never cut it.
That promise led to the company's chief executive, Andrew Mackenzie, famously saying in August last year when releasing the 2015 financial results that cutting the dividend was not an option.
"Over my dead body sounds a little strong but it's almost right," he said. But that's exactly what happened earlier this year when the dividend was cut and the progressive dividend policy abandoned.
Mackenzie's "dead body" comment has haunted the BHP Billiton chief executive for the past 12 months as the company has stumbled from crisis to crisis, including its involvement as a 50% owner of the Samarco iron ore mine in Brazil which suffered a catastrophic dam failure that flooded downstream towns, killing 17 people.
Costs associated with the Samarco incident will be felt in tomorrow's result with a provision of between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion revealed in the company's fourth quarter production report.
Investment bank forecasts for tomorrow's result include those from
"This represents BHP Billiton's largest corporate loss since the formation of the dual-listed company (quoted on the London and Australian stock markets), and the largest reported loss for BHP since its inception," UBS said. Macquarie Bank is tipping a reported loss of $6.5 billion.
Dividend Watch
Apart from the size of the loss there will be keen interest in the size of the dividend given the problems it caused last year.
Macquarie is forecasting 19c a share. Morgans, another Australian investment bank reckons it will total 24c a share. UBS says 15c.
Critics might also be quick to compare what is expected to be BHP Billiton's worst financial result with that of its arch-rival and fell Anglo-Australian miner,
Underlying earnings for Rio Tinto in the latest six months came in at $1.5 billion with profit for its full financial year to December 31 expected to be around $3.6 billion, according to Goldman Sachs.
The difference between BHP Billiton's traumatic year and a period of uneventful trading for Rio Tinto prompted Goldman Sachs to say after the release of the Rio Tinto result that "boring is good in this environment".
