Debunking the Gentrification Myth

For residents of economically vibrant cities like New York and San Francisco, there are few facts of life more salient than ever-­rising real estate values. And with that comes pain among working-class families who increasingly can’t afford to live in cities they have called home for years.

But in big swaths of the country, the real estate scene looks quite different. Gentrification, as it relates to high-income residents’ displacing large numbers of lower-income ones, is actually fairly rare in most of the U.S., says Redfin economist Nela Richardson, and ­“mostly concentrated in a handful of cities along the East and West Coast.” Many economists have shown that an influx of wealthy residents can often be beneficial, leading to income increases for workers of color with high school diplomas. Plenty of mayors spend ample energy trying to attract high-earning, educated residents to pad their tax bases. And Redfin points to several highly gentrified cities where residents with varying incomes co-exist without yuppies taking over the neighborhood (Boston and Seattle are particularly successful examples).

Another reason not to fret too much about the rush to city centers? In lots of urban areas, housing prices aren’t climbing that fast. Real estate data firm Trulia looked at the pace of price increases in the largest 100 metropolitan areas in the U.S., comparing values within urban limits with those in suburban* environs. This past June, suburban prices rose faster than urban ones for the first time in more than a year—and the trend has continued thus far in July, with suburban asking prices rising 9.7% year over year, vs. 6.8% in urban areas.

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These data underscore the fact that not every American city is experiencing a one-sided urban renaissance paired with suburban decay. Cities like Chicago, Honolulu, and even San Jose are seeing prices rise far faster in surrounding suburban counties than in the urban core. That will be cold comfort to the San Francisco residents whose rents continue to climb past the stratosphere, but Americans who crave city living may do well to look a little farther inland.

Where 2016 Suburban Price Growth Is Outstripping Urban Growth Year Over Year

Detroit

Urban: 35.8%; Suburban 73.4%