Declan Meagher is a professional gambler and author of www.learnbetwin.com.
5.15 - radissonhotelgalway.com & galwaybayhotel.com Novice Hurdle
Willie Mullins has won with five of his last ten runners in such races at the Festival, and he is likely to keep that good record up with Muthaza. She had some decent flat form in France before moving to the Mullins yard, and has won both her hurdle starts for him.
After an easy win at Tramore she followed up with another impressive win at Bellewstown, beating Buyer Beware by six and a half lengths, but was value for plenty extra. The runner-up renews rivalry here, and has better form than anything else in this, so barring accidents it should be another simple task for Muthaza, but she will be a very short price.
5.45 - EasyFix Handicap Hurdle
As will be the case on numerous occasions this week, this looks very competitive with plenty you could make a good case for.
Camlann ran well on the flat at last year’s Galway Festival, before going over hurdles. He didn’t show much in maidens but was a good fifth in a higher grade race than this at Leopardstown over Christmas, staying on well having been held up.
He was then off for six months, before recording an impressive win on the flat at Fairyhouse, with a ride closer to the pace looking like it suited well. Back over hurdles here, off the same mark as Leopardstown, he looks to have a good chance, but has been well found in the market, and is only 4-1 as I write this.
I think Stormey is interesting. His trainer Steve Mahon has only won one handicap hurdle at the festival from twelve runners over the previous three years, but when you take into account the average price was around 20-1, and that five of those twelve runners were placed, his runners outperform their odds by quite a margin, and it looks like he targets these races.
Stormey showed very little in his first six hurdle starts, but after almost a year’s break, he won his maiden at Sligo before coming second at Ballinrobe last week.
He probably should have won that too, as having been held up a long way off the pace, he had plenty to do with half a mile to run, and also had to make his ground very wide around the final bend.
He would have got up in another few strides and still looks well handicapped off just five-pound higher. I think he’s a good bet at 14-1 each way.
Another worth backing each way at 14-1 is Deputy Marshall who won his maiden hurdle at Galway last October and shaped better than the result, when fourth of eight at Sligo last time. He was still on the bridle jumping the second last, but had little chance from where he was, doing well to close up into fourth.
His mark of 105 looks fair, and he could well have been trained for this.
6.15 - claregalwayhotel.ie EBF Maiden
This is normally one of the hottest two-year-old maidens of the season. Dermot Weld’s record in the race is well documented and he has the favourite in Right Honourable.
He made his debut less than two weeks ago when an unlucky in running third at Leopardstown, travelling well into the straight, but running into every bit of trouble going thereafter.
He should have won, and with improvement very likely he is clearly the most likely winner.
Aidan O’Brien’s Courage Under Fire has had two runs for far, improving a good bit from his first to second start, and in staying on strongly last time, he shaped like a horse sure to be suited by the step up to seven furlongs for this.
I’d have no strong opinion but I’d rather back the Weld runner, with Pat Smullen in the plate, at the current 8-11, than the 7-4 available on the O’Brien horse, which looks short, as it’s not a complete two horse race.
6.50 - claytonhotelgalway.ie Handicap
A seven-furlong handicap, and another Weld-trained favourite. Heartful looks very well handicapped on her debut second to Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven at Dundalk back in April, and while the winner beat her easily, she was over four lengths clear of the third, and even without any improvement her mark of 79 here would look exploitable.
Her two other runs weren’t as good though, but it’s entirely possible this has been the plan, and she is probably the one to beat, but from a poor draw I’m not interested in backing her at the current 4-1.
Two I do like at the prices though are Flying Fairies at 12-1, and Camile at 20-1. Flying Fairies won her maiden at Fairyhouse and ran well in a much higher grade of handicap, when fourth at the Curragh last time. Hanging a little in the straight wouldn’t have helped her, and from a decent draw she surely has more chance than those odds suggest.
Camile won off a mark just one pound higher back in May, and she showed enough to suggest she was in decent form when fourth on heavy ground last time. Her trainers flat handicap runners outperform their odds at this meeting, and Flying Fairies and Camile are both worth backing.
7.20 - Connacht Hotel (QR) Handicap
The big race on the first day is the Connacht Hotel Qualified Rider Handicap, and it’s a flat race run over two miles.
Time To Inspire provides us with yet another Weld-trained favourite, and while he was a very easy winner of the qualified riders maiden at last year’s festival, he has only had one run since, and a mark of 94 looks harsh enough to me.
Kalann was third in a Group 2 back in 2014, and he has bounced back to decent form recently, coming second at Leopardstown and the Curragh. He’s 3lb higher here than for that Curragh effort, but the winner had a tactical advantage over him that day, and this mark is still one he can go close off.
Roconga started off in bumpers before going over hurdles, and only made his flat debut at Dundalk in March this year. He was third that day before winning his maiden at the same track next time, and after a respectable run over hurdles at Punchestown, he was third on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse last time.
Roconga was poorly positioned when they picked up the pace, and he got buffeted around quite a bit before getting in the clear, staying on well once he did. This is a better race, but the longer trip should suit, and he looks well handicapped off a mark of 83.
Weather Watch was rated a good bit higher than his current mark of 83 a few years back, but he’s been in good form this summer, and in staying on into third at the Curragh last time, when the slow pace wouldn’t have suited, he suggested he can do better with a proper gallop, which he should get here.
Brian Ellison does well with the runners he sends to Galway, and while I wouldn’t put anyone off Always Resolute at 14-1, I’m just going to recommend backing Kalann and Weather Watch each way at the current 16-1, while Rocongo is also worth an each way bet at 12-1.
All quoted prices correct at time of posting.
