In my weekend post-qualifying preview for New Hampshire last week, I laid out a pretty compelling argument for why Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Row Racing were outperforming all other teams.
Then I went and made Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick my top high-value picks.
They all drive for other teams, and while they all had pleasant days and avoided poor finishes, they didn't put up the huge points that I crave.
Instead, the top three -- which I should've seen coming -- were Matt Kenseth (100.5), Kyle Busch (89.75) and Martin Truex Jr. (66.75), all of whom drive for JGR or FRR.
But I hope you did follow my advice when it came to mid-value and low-cost drivers.
My mid-value picks of Ryan Newman (finished seventh for 55 points) and Jamie McMurray (finished sixth for 51 points) both were the best in that salary class. Ditto Greg Biffle, who put up 62 points, fourth best in the entire field, and easily the best among drivers costing under $7,000.
Let's now look forward to the future, a once-a-year visit to Indianapolis for the Brickyard 400. If you thought passing was tough at New Hampshire, expect it to be even more so at Indianapolis, a flat 2.5-mile track laid out for open-wheel cars. The corners are tight and it's hard to pull alongside another car.
Horsepower will rule the day, so keep an eye on those practice times to see who's running the high speeds early.
If you're looking for a track comparison, there's no track on the circuit that looks much like Indianapolis. But one of the three turns at Pocono is modeled after Indy, and like the Brickyard, it's about turning those high speeds down the straightaways and being able to accelerate off the corners. So I'll look at a bit at results from Pocono, too.
Who am I looking at for Indianapolis? Here are my early picks, but check back after Saturday qualifying to get my final picks and fades for the week.
Plus, keep an eye on the situation with Dale Earnhardt Jr. If he can't go, Jeff Gordon will drive the No. 88 this week. No word on his DraftKings availability.
I'm starting my team with
Kyle Busch doesn't have the gaudy laps led numbers here, but consistently finds himself up front at Indianapolis, culminating with a win last year for 76.75 DraftKings points. It was the third time in the past four years he finished in the top two in the race, and a sixth straight top-10 finish.
That gives Busch the best four- and six-year scoring average at the track. Plus, he's coming off a strong run last week at New Hampshire. While New Hampshire doesn't have the high speeds of Indianapolis, it is another flat track with tight cornering and tough passing, which bodes well for Busch.
Keep an eye on these four
Matt Kenseth: Brad Keselowski just won back-to-back races, so why couldn't Kenseth? Kenseth has only three top-five finishes this season (two of them are wins), but that doesn't mean he's not running well. And Indy seems like another opportunity for him. In his first three Indianapolis races since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, he's finished seventh or better, despite not starting better than 13th in any race (50.8 fantasy points per race).
Chase Elliott: Elliott is running his second Brickyard 400. Last year, he finished 18th, but it was a 10-spot improvement from his starting position. What I'm more interested in is what he did at Pocono last month. He led 51 laps (most of any driver in the field) and had 17 fastest laps, just five off leading the field, for 70.25 points, which also led the field.
Ryan Newman: Newman was a solid points earner at New Hampshire, and he's on an eight-year streak of finishing 17th or better at Indianapolis, including a 2013 win and a 2015 race that saw him finish 11th after starting 43rd. While he has only three laps led and 19 fastest laps all season, Newman has been putting up consistent finishes -- nine in a row of 18th or better, with three in the top eight in the past four races.
Ryan Blaney: Blaney ran at Indianapolis last year in a warm-up to his rookie season. He started 30th and finished 12th for 50 points. Earlier this season at Pocono, he finished in the top 10 for 38.5 points. Blaney had a great recovery at New Hampshire following a pit road penalty, and his Penske-powered car gives him essentially the same equipment as Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.