Fantasy hockey draft dilemma: Auston Matthews or Patrik Laine?

BySEAN ALLEN
July 13, 2016, 9:20 AM

— -- A good coffee or a fine tea? Delicately crafted beer or perfectly aged wine?

Asking hockey fans whether they prefer the Toronto Maple Leafs' new franchise center Auston Matthews or Winnipeg Jets sniper Patrik Laine is a question that will be answered by their own personal preference. And that's fine. To each their own. But refine the question to ask whether No. 1 overall pick Matthews or No. 2 overall pick Laine is the better fantasy prospect for this season and there is a wrong answer.

Laine himself benchmarked the top two picks from the 2016 NHL draft with their current era superstar comparisons at the NHL scouting combine in June. Laine is the dynamic sniper with the hair-trigger shot that will threaten for 50 goals someday -- an Alex Ovechkin clone, he said. While Matthews is the true leader all over the ice with fantastic vision and a 200-foot game -- Jonathan Toews, in other words.

No one is going to argue with the merits of Matthews as the top choice for the Leafs and his potential future returns, just as no one is about to argue with Toews and his hand that's more than half full of Stanley Cup rings. But we also doubt many fantasy buffs -- especially those playing the ESPN standard game -- would argue with Laine's potential here as a sniper. Any fantasy owner in the world will tell you they want Ovechkin on their team before Toews, as few of us play in leagues with "Stanley Cups" as a category.

Without miss, Ovechkin finds himself at the end of every season at the top -- or near the top -- of the ESPN Player Rater, which ranks the NHL's skaters for their contributions to the seven offensive categories in the ESPN game. Laine models his game after Ovechkin, and shoots the puck like Ovechkin. Laine, as a boy among men, was 14th in the Finnish elite league (Liiga) for shots on goal last season despite missing 14 games. He led the IIHF World Championship -- a tournament filled with non-playoff NHLers and pros from other leagues -- in shots on goal. He was second in shots at the IIHF World Junior Championship. The guy generates shots wherever he goes and, as we know in fantasy hockey, generating shots can be half the battle.

Still don't buy the Ovechkin comparison? Check out Laine's shot attempts heat map from last season on the website Prospect Stats. Remind you of anyone?

Laine will immediately slot in to the Jets' top six. Do we really care if it's with Mark Scheifele or Bryan Little? Scheifele had a breakout season in 2016-17, and showed he's ready to be a regular point producer in the NHL, while Little is one of the more underrated, reliable pivots in the league. Either can dish the puck and help keep an eager Laine fed with chances to release his shot. He's also a no-brainer for the Jets' power play that finished dead last in the NHL last season at just 14.8 percent.

Matthews, while projected for as many or more points as Laine in this rookie campaign, won't be getting them the same way. Assists are good, but don't count for as much as goals in fantasy because there are more assists to go around and they don't automatically count as another stat (goals are a shot, too).

While Laine will get to play with experienced, fantasy warriors like Little, Scheifele or Blake Wheeler, Matthews is pegged to skate with sophomore William Nylander, and could end up with another rookie as the third member of the line (Mitch Marner). Not a single player on the Leafs' 2016-17 roster had 20 NHL goals. Nazem Kadri led the team with a paltry 45 points -- which is in the ballpark for about as low as you can have to lead a team in scoring. The only consistent, fantasy-proven veteran on the entire offense is James van Riemsdyk. The Jets, on the other hand, are populated with plenty of talent for Laine to work with. Wheeler had 78 points last season; Scheifele had 29 goals and 61 points; Little managed 42 points in only 57 games. Matthews may not have been drafted by his native Arizona Coyotes, but he'll find himself alone in the desert at times with the Leafs.

If you don't think the Toews comparison by Laine does Matthews justice, you're probably right. Toews was never as dynamic on offense as Matthews can be. The all-time single season scoring record for the U.S. National Development Team Program was held jointly by two fellows named Patrick Kane and Phil Kessel for the past decade, at 52 goals. Matthews busted that mark with 55 in 2014-15. He also eclipsed Kane's record for points in a season at the time, with Matthews notching 117 to Kane's 102. Matthews has more offense than he gets credit for because of his complete, end-to-end game.

But Matthews, who plied his trade in the Swiss professional league (NLA) last season, is coming into a situation where he will play tough minutes for the team that finished dead-last in the NHL last season. The Leafs are going to get very good in a couple of years with Matthews, Nylander, Marner and a young, talented group of prospects coming along with them. But it's going to take time.

While we think it's likely that Laine and Matthews will finish with similar point totals in their rookie season, the edge has to go to Laine for fantasy purposes, as his statistics will be slanted toward goals and shots. He is also likely to come away with a better plus/minus than Matthews, despite not having the same prowess in his own zone.

If you are in a keeper league and choosing between the two, this is a much more difficult decision, as Matthews may be the better long-term contributor once he starts playing with elite teammates. But in the short-term -- for re-draft leagues -- Laine is the choice.