The NFL realigned into eight divisions in 2002. In 13 of the 14 seasons since that re-shuffling, we’ve had at least one team go from last place one season to division champs the next. Last season it was the Redskins who enjoyed that turnaround in the always-volatile NFC East, which is exactly where we kick off our picks for the best worst-to-first candidates of 2016.
1. Dallas Cowboys
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The Cowboys were one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments in 2015, mostly due to the fact Tony Romo missed all but four games, forcing Dallas to trot out mediocre quarterback cocktail of Matt Cassel, Kellen Moore and Brandon Weeden. Romo is back healthy (but for how long?) and the Cowboys filled one of the few needs on the offense by drafting Ezekiel Elliott fourth-overall in April’s draft.
Dallas is deep on the offensive side of the ball, and should have no problems replicating the ball-control approach it successfully employed during the team’s last run to the playoffs in 2014.
And the Cowboys offense will need to control the ball in order to keep what should be an underwhelming defensive group off the field. This was a unit that already lacked pass-rushing talent on the defensive line before parting ways with Greg Hardy and losing both DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory to suspension. But if you’re going to have defensive line problems, defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is not a bad guy to have in charge of figuring them out.
If Marinelli can cobble together even a below average defense, the talented offense should be able to carry the team to the top of a weak division. Washington still hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record with Kirk Cousins starting, Philadelphia is in the midst of a minor rebuild and the Giants look like an 8-8 team on paper.
2. San Diego Chargers
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The five-time defending champs in the AFC West are holding a quarterback competition between Mark Sanchez and someone named Trevor Siemian. The Broncos are vulnerable, especially after losing some key pieces from last year’s historically dominant defense.
The past few seasons, the Chargers have been a good football team disguised as a bad one. Injuries have been the big issue, and we’re just going to assume San Diego catches a break for once and stays relatively healthy in 2016. If that does turn out to be the case, the Chargers will compete for a playoff spot.
As long as Philip Rivers is behind center, San Diego will have a good offense. He gets the offense into the right plays and can instantly diagnose and shred any defensive coverage an opposing coach can throw at him. There is the issue of the run game, which finished 31st in Football Outsider’s DVOA in 2015. Getting healthier along the offensive line should help Melvin Gordon, who may have had the roughest rookie season of any first-round pick last year, get going in what could be a make-or-break sophomore campaign. And even if the running game doesn’t take a massive leap, the Chargers will still score plenty of points, as they did in 2015.
Defense is the big concern in San Diego but there are some intriguing pieces here. Cornerback Jason Verrett is a star who can’t seem to stay on the field. Linebacker Denzel Perryman was all over the field when he had the chance to play during his rookie season. The addition of Joey Bosa should boost the pass rush from Day 1. And the team brought in massive nose tackle Brandon Mebane to help anchor a defensive line desperately in need of beef inside.
There’s just enough talent on the defense to not totally bog down what should be a top-10 offense.
3. Chicago Bears
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The Bears just might be the best team on this list. They also just happen to play in one of the league’s toughest divisions and will have to jump both the Packers and Vikings to steal the NFC North.
The success of the offense depends on a couple of factors. The first, and most important, being the continued improvement of Jay Cutler. It had been a while since we had seen any significant development in Cutler’s game, but we finally saw signs of improvement from him in 2015. He navigated the pocket more comfortably last season, which helped him limit the throws from awkward platforms that typically lead to interceptions.
The big question is whether he will continue to get better without former offensive coordinator and new Dolphins coach Adam Gase around. Getting receiver Kevin White, the team’s first-round pick who missed the entire 2015 season, back on the field should give first-year play-caller Dowell Loggains another matchup nightmare to go along with Alshon Jeffery. Having two massive play-makers on the outside will make things easier for both the quarterback and coach.
The front office went to work on the defense this last offseason, addressing several needs. Chicago’s linebacker corps got a complete overhaul with free agents Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman coming in to shore up the unit’s biggest weakness. The Bears also drafted pass rusher Leonard Floyd, who adds some much-needed athleticism to the pass rush.
With nose tackle Eddie Goldman and outside linebacker Pernell McPhee destroying opposing run games, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will not have to drop a safety in the box for more run support. That will help a suspect secondary that needs all the help it can get.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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This pick is all about Jameis Winston and his development going into Year 2. Coming off a successful rookie year, Winston will have to make strides in a number of areas for Tampa Bay to challenge Carolina in the NFC South.
He’s already shown he has the mental aptitude to play the position, but Winston must clean up some of the sloppiness in his footwork and mechanics if he is going to evolve into a consistent passer who can carry an offense throughout a 60-minute game.
The Bucs offense will still lean heavily on running back Doug Martin on early downs, as it did in 2015, but if Winston can improve his accuracy on short and intermediate throws — among quarterbacks who started multiple games, only Johnny Manziel and Ryan Mallett produced lower completion percentages on those attempts — defenses won’t be able to key in on the run on first and second down, bringing more situational balance to the offense.
Tampa Bay dropped Lovie Smith, who had been criticized for his vanilla defense, but then made the odd decision to bring in former Falcons coach Mike Smith, who employed an equally conservative scheme in Atlanta, to run the defense. The Buccaneers are better suited to play offenses straight up after the additions of pass rushers Noah Spence and Robert Ayers. The new additions and all-world tackle Gerald McCoy should allow Tampa Bay to get after the quarterback without blitzing.
The second-level of the defense is loaded with Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David forming an athletic pair of nickel linebackers. The secondary is still a mess but a good front-seven should mitigate any issues on the back end of the defense.
If Winston is more consistent and the defense improves with a new voice in the locker room, the Bucs should be able to find the extra three or four wins it will take to keep pace with the Panthers next season.
