Not only cream rises to top in skewed system

12 July 2016 - 09:46 By CRAIG RAY

The Sharks and the Brumbies have a chance to emulate new European football champions Portugal by winning the title after benefiting from the vagaries of the pool system. Portugal won Euro 2016 despite finishing third in their group after three draws.They only made the knockout stages because the tournament expanded to allow the best third-placed sides to advance from the group stage.Super rugby could see a similar situation unfold due to a structure that guarantees play-off qualification through the conference system.When it was announced that the tournament would expand to 18 teams and into a complicated conference system, there was always the chance that the outcome would embarrass the organisers.But there was also a chance that the best teams would somehow rise to the top and spare the South African, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina Rugby (SANZAAR) bosses some blushes.Unfortunately, the former has happened. Given the ring fences around local conference winners, as it stands now, Australian leaders the Brumbies have a home play-off game even though they would only be seventh on a combined log.The Brumbies have 39 points, while the Crusaders, Highlanders and Hurricanes "below" them, have 50, 48 and 48 respectively.In a combined log the Brumbies would make the quarterfinals but they would not have another home game in the post-season.The Stormers are sixth on a combined log with 46 points, and will have a home quarterfinal against a New Zealand team thanks to the system.As Africa 1 conference winners they are seeded higher than New Zealand's second, third and fourth teams, who all have more points than they do.With the New Zealand conference so tight, the Stormers will only know their opponents after the dust has settled on the last-round matches. The Sharks appear to be the team set to benefit most from the complex structure.They are closing in on the "wildcard" spot from the South African Conference. Victory over the Sunwolves on Friday night should be a formality and guarantee the Sharks a place in the post-season even though they might actually finish ninth on a combined log.But it's not just about log points because that also doesn't give a clear picture of relative strengths and weaknesses. The sides don't all play each other and, while Super rugby has never been entirely equal because of the geographical challenges, the imbalance was magnified this year.The Sunwolves, who have only one win this season, didn't face a single New Zealand team.The Sharks had to play New Zealand sides this year, and the Kiwis have been significantly superior to Australian sides. So the Sharks' place in play-offs has at least come the more difficult way.The Stormers and Bulls only played Australian teams in cross- conference clashes and also had two games against the Sunwolves, one of the struggling newcomers.New Zealand teams have so far won 20 of 24 games against Australian sides in 2016. Against SA sides they have 11 wins in 15 matches. SA sides have edged Aussie sides with eight wins in 15 games.Against all foreign opposition so far, Australia's franchises have won 15 out of 44 games (34%).SA teams have won 24 out of 46 matches with one draw for a 52% winning ratio. New Zealand lead the way with staggering 82% success rate against foreign teams - 36 wins in 44 outings and a draw. The system is massively flawed and, as a result, teams such as the Brumbies and Sharks could still win the title. Just ask Portugal...

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