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From the moment we learned about Jose Reyes' domestic incident this offseason, we've speculating as to his return -- specifically the who, where and when.
And now we have an answer to all three. The who is the team that introduced him to the league, the infield-depleted Mets. The where is third base instead of his familiar shortstop. The when is Tuesday following a minor-league stint between the Rockies and Mets organizations in which he went 16 for 67 (.239) with two homers and four steals.
Which brings us to the follow-up question: Why? Why should we care? His OPS last year between the Blue Jays and Rockies was .688, his lowest since his first full season, and he had only 24 stolen bases in 116 games. The reason for hope coming into this season was the rejuvenating power of Coors Field, and that's no longer applicable.
Yeah, he'll still be eligible at shortstop even though he's playing third base, but shortstop, while still not the strongest position, isn't exactly lacking in depth, boasting three players who are on pace for at least 30 home runs and yet still available in more than a quarter of CBSSports.com leagues.
So again, why should we care? I'll admit I'm drawing a blank. The best reason I can come up with is that, even with his declining numbers last year, Reyes was still was the fifth-best shortstop in Head-to-Head points per game, albeit it among a weaker shortstop class. He still trailed Brett Gardner in that category, if that offers some perspective.
I could see picking Reyes up to fill a middle infield spot in a Rotisserie league, but it's a low-priority move. For now, I rank him only 15th among shortstop-eligible players.
1. The Dark Knight falls
I hope this Dark Knight's father had a saying so inspirational that it replays at every tumultuous moment in his life, because Harvey could use the pick-me-up right about now.
And I mean, of course, Matt Harvey, not Harvey Dent, though I think he'd be the first to admit that his performance over the last six has been two-faced.
We got the side that was burned beyond recognition Monday with this performance against the Marlins:
But it came on the heels of a six-start stretch in which he appeared to be on his way back, compiling a 2.27 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
I say "appeared to be" because it still wasn't Harvey in his truest, purest form. He averaged just 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings during that six-start stretch, which is in stark contrast to Jacob deGrom's turnaround. His includes 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings to go along with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last seven starts.
"I told [pitching coach] Dan [Warthen] when he came out, it's back to the drawing board," manager Terry Collins told MLB.com.
In retrospect, shopping Harvey prior to Monday's start may have been the right call. If he's still searching for answers this deep into the season, you have to wonder how much will be left if and when he figures it out. Not only has he struggled to find and keep his ideal arm slot, but he also has command issues to sort out. They might explain the loss in strikeouts despite his still exceptional stuff.
"We just got to figure out what's going on, so we can at least have some type of an idea how he feels," Collins said. "Dan's talking about this issue with his delivery again tonight. Got to get back and fix it."
So now, all you Harvey owners are back to watching, waiting and wondering. You want close to a full return for him so you'll have no regrets if he does get back to pitching like an ace down the stretch, but if you don't want him in your lineup right now, how can you expect anyone else to?
2. Unlikeliest of breakouts
In my last Observations, I was bemoaning the shortage of breakout starting pitchers this late into the season.
Well, we can add two more to the tally after the holiday weekend.
I may be jumping the gun considering neither Danny Duffy nor Junior Guerra was even a candidate for a breakout two months ago, the former seemingly finding his niche in the Royals bullpen and the latter still biding his time at Triple-A at age 31, but their numbers are pretty convincing.
My biggest concern for Duffy was that his transformation depended on a velocity spike that he couldn't sustain over a starter's workload. And when he struggled in his first start of more than five innings, it seemed to validate my claims. But back-to-back starts of eight-plus innings, with two earned runs and eight strikeouts in each, do a better job of refuting them.
His numbers now in 10 starts are pretty imposing:
And he's still maintaining an average fastball velocity around 96, up 2 mph from his time as a starter last year.
Guerra, meanwhile, is coming off three straight dominating outings, allowing two hits in each of the last two. He also had an 11-strikeout effort against the Cubs back on May 19 and has delivered a quality start in seven of his last nine outings. Here are his numbers during that time:
The extent of his upside is still in question since the strikeouts haven't been consistent, but his wipeout splitter at least seems to give him a high floor. Opponents are hitting just .139 against it.
So why are we only now hearing of him at age 31? Well, it took him that long to develop the splitter. He first picked it up from former Giants reliever Jean Machi in 2009, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
It's worth noting that both Duffy and Guerra are relief pitcher-eligible, which boosts their value in some formats, but that's just a nice bonus at this point. With so little else happening at starting pitcher, at least for more than a start or two at a time, you want them anywhere you can get them.
3. McCullers by the numbers
On the subject of seeing more fakeouts than breakouts at starting pitcher this year, I'd been tempted to drop Lance McCullers on more than one occasion. The stuff that made him one of the most impactful rookie pitchers during a 2015 season abounding in them was still evident from his 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings over his first eight starts, but because he issued at least three walks in every last one of them, his overall output was unappealing.
Monday's start against the Mariners gave me reason to resist that temptation:
The final tally was 10 strikeouts to one walk in seven innings, and the visuals are pretty impressive. The Mariners couldn't touch his curveball, whiffing at it 11 times.
But really, that's been true for all of his starts. He has averaged 12.9 swings-and-misses across nine starts. Stephen Strasburg's season average is 11.9. McCullers just needs to throw more strikes, at least to the degree he did last year when he averaged a modest 3.1 walks per nine innings.
He's kind of in the same position as Chris Archer now: one small adjustment away from being an overpowering pitcher but without any clear signs of making that adjustment. But hey, it has to start somewhere.
4. Maikel is all yours
I've been pretty vocal about my distrust of Maikel Franco, who may have the tools to be a Fantasy standout but lacks the supporting cast, which makes a stretch like he's having now a little uncomfortable for me:
At the moment, it's fair to say his Fantasy owners are happy with what he's doing for them, and yes, he's now on a 30-homer pace. But he's also on just a 56-run pace, and with the state of the Phillies lineup, I don't see that changing.
Normally, we don't worry about that particular stat because it's beyond a player's control, but that's why I worry Franco won't be able to overcome it. Maybe a guy who gets on base more would have a chance to right the runs total just by having so many opportunities to score, but Franco walks so little that his on-base percentage is still only .315 even with this hot streak.
The Phillies lineup is dreadful. About the only other member of it who would start for another major-league team is Odubel Herrera, and he bats in front of Franco, not behind. It's up to Franco to sustain himself, and as good as he is, he's not that good. If this hot streak isn't enough to get him back in the top 12 at third base (not to mention top 15), what would be?
Seeing as he still holds some name value as a trendy pick this spring, now might be your best chance to redeem the value.
5. Kendrys in the outfield
Your last reason for resisting the pull of Kendrys Morales is no longer applicable. He's now eligible at a position other than DH. Granted, it's not his usual first base, but maybe that's for the best. Outfield has been one of the more difficult positions to fill this year.
So how does he change that? Well, he has only been a top-three hitter in Fantasy over the last 21 days, regardless of whether you play in points or categories, and his numbers during that stretch explain why:
Naturally, what runs hot must run cold, but Morales had a lot of ground to make up after a miserable first two months. Last year, remember, he was an integral piece in Fantasy, performing about like Jose Abreu in terms of Head-to-Head points, so I'm viewing this stretch as more of a regression to the mean -- the good kind, that is -- than just another hot streak.
Even assessing Morales just by his year-to-date numbers, he's the 38th-best outfielder in Head-to-Head points leagues and the 36th-best in Rotisserie, and I suspect more regression is to come.
His 72 percent ownership rate all but guarantees he's available in one or two of my league still. I'm relying on too many Melky Cabrera and Trayce Thompson types to allow that to stand.
