Time to up the stakes in Afghanistan

Maj-Gen Ashok Kumar Mehta (retd)

IN his outstanding speeches in December 2015 and June 2016 at Kabul and Herat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi won over the Afghans by his commitments to “stand by Afghanistan against all odds”. But putting boots on the ground, even at a place as removed as Herat, is an option India has ruled out. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj, at the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad in December 2015 had said that India will ‘strengthen’ the Afghan National Security Forces. It has provided training and non-lethal equipment, but utility and attack helicopters only after being pressed by the Afghan leadership. Its institution and capacity-building programmes together with the economic aid have made it the most popular country in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, New Delhi has not been able to convert this friendship into political influence even though it was New Delhi with whom Kabul signed its first Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2011.

Privately, Afghans are asking how far is India prepared to go to defend Afghan interests, as Kabul’s requests for military assistance have only materialised marginally. True, New Delhi wants the US and Nato to maintain the military supply chain. But will India be prepared to go beyond providing economic assistance and development aid to putting boots on the ground in an emergency? The question of despatching Indian troops to Iraq on US request has come up in the past and crops up frequently over Afghanistan. The time may have come for New Delhi to act in Afghanistan as US and Indian interests converge.

The long-awaited Pakistan-led and Pakistan-owned reconciliation process between Kabul and Taliban failed to take off, resulting in a US drone taking out the Pakistan-installed Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour last month near Quetta. The US has launched 292 drone attacks: of these only two outside North and South Waziristan. US Envoy for AfPak Richard Olson, who was in Delhi recently accompanied by the US Military Commander in Afghanistan, Gen John Nicholson, told members of the House Foreign Relations Committee that the Taliban must face consequences of calling off the talks. President Obama called Mansour an obstacle to peace. The Americans are angry with Pakistan for not acting against the Taliban and the Haqqanis and taking them for a ride for more than a decade. US military aid is on hold as is the sale of F-16 aircraft. US-Pakistan relations have hit rock bottom.

The Afghans are furious with Pakistan after the recent border clashes and the deadly Kabul truck bomb attack (and suicide bombers targeting Nepali security guards and Afghan cadets last month). Deputy Foreign Minister Hikmat Karzai told Indian journalists that his country planned to take Pakistan to the UNSC. Afghanistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Mahmoud Saikal, last month accused Pakistan of facilitating terrorist groups operating in the region. “Pakistan needs political will to act against them, not nuclear deals or F-16s,” he said, adding that numerous leading figures of terrorism, including Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar and Mullah Mansour have lived and died in Pakistan.

Pakistan is the most unpopular country in Afghanistan. It is in denial over its control and influence over the Taliban. The Taliban are split over talks and the question of leadership. Mullah Rasoul, who is opposed to the appointment of Moulvi Haibutullah Akhundzada, former Chief Justice and religious scholar, as the new leader, has Taliban loyal to him take up arms in the south of the country. In his first message Haibutullah has asked foreign troops to vacate.

The Taliban summer offensive, Operation Omari, is designed to secure maximum territory, including a provincial headquarters, to improve bargaining at the negotiation table. The ANSF are facing almost two to three attacks a day and suffering on an average30 to 40 military casualties a week. The Taliban actively control 38 districts and contest 43 others and are in occupation of more territory than at any time since 2001. American military commanders have admitted that the US had the made mistakes of withdrawing air support as well as reducing check posts on highways to free troops to go after the Taliban. The US military has now authorised air raids against Taliban and do not fear any strategic collapse.

Last month, Olson told the Atlantic Council at Washington that if the Taliban were planning to wait out for the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, they were mistaken. The Taliban adage “US soldiers may have the watches, we have the time” is being re-phrased. Mr Olson added that the Taliban should not imagine that the US is going to abandon Afghanistan. The Obama Administration is unlikely to thin out troop levels from 9,800 to 5,500 by 2016-end. He confirmed that the US and allies will continue their financial support of $3 billion annually for the ANSF till 2020.

Mr Olson has said that India (and Iran) – two countries that have stakes in Afghanistan – are likely to be included in peace talks if and when they start. To demonstrate its commitment to Kabul, New Delhi should step up military training and arms assistance and offer to deploy a Military Field Hospital in Afghanistan. It should be prepared to activate Ayni air base in Tajikistan, which it shares with Russia. Further, a brigade-sized task force backed by another brigade should be earmarked to respond to any crisis situations around Kabul and Herat. This will free ANSF to defend district and provincial headquarters as well as the key highways and lines of communication.

That the US will not abandon Afghanistan and India will stand by it will send the right signals to the Taliban and its military backers in Pakistan. A strong and well-equipped ANSF supported by a stable national unity government, which US Secretary of State John Kerry has said has no ‘expiry date’, will act as a sharp deterrent. Only then will the Taliban be willing to come to the talks table. It is also clear that US officials are examining the option of looking beyond Pakistan. Belatedly they are calling Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan the ‘mother of all problems’. Some of them are even equating Pakistan with North Korea, which goes beyond ‘frenemy’, and are recommending suspending all aid to it. They have suggested that the US and India consider ways and means to make the Taliban alter its behaviour, including nudging Pakistan to act against sanctuaries. Pakistan’s capacity to hold the peace process hostage has to be undermined by jointly strengthening the ANSF. The decapitating drone strike shows new red lines are being drawn by Washington. New Delhi must cash in.

The writer is convenor of a Track 2 India-Afghanistan channel.