The good folks at the race and sports book at Wynn Las Vegas released their current future book odds for the Nov. 5 Breeders' Cup Classic a few days ago and, as always, I find them a fun topic for discussion.
But first, a word on what on what future book odds from an actual casino really are. They are an amalgam of actual future book bets Wynn has accepted, their response for requests for odds quotes on certain horses, and prices carefully considered so as to reduce the bookmaker's exposure. These future book odds are not in any way a future book odds line, so if you see a number on a horse mentioned below that you strongly disagree with, keep in mind that that number is a reflection of various market influences.
Anyway, Wynn has seven horses decidedly lower than the rest of the pack in their current Breeders' Cup Classic future odds. Here they are, in ascending odds order:
California Chrome: 9-2
Beholder: 5-1
Frosted: 7-1
Nyquist: 7-1
Exaggerator: 8-1
Dortmund: 10-1
Songbird: 12-1
It should be no surprise to anyone that California Chrome and Beholder are the first two favorites. California Chrome, the Horse of the Year in 2014 and winner of the Dubai World Cup in his last start in the best performance of his accomplished career, is scheduled to return in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on July 23. Beholder, a three time Eclipse Award winner and winner of eight straight, all stakes, is to make her next start in Del Mar's Clement L. Hirsch Stakes a week after the San Diego. And if all goes well, these two are to meet for the first time in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Aug. 20.
It's also no surprise that Frosted is as low a price as he is after his jaw dropping, 14-¼ length victory in the Met Mile on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Frosted, who earned a 123 Beyer Speed Figure for that performance, the highest Beyer in nine years, is to make his next start in Saratoga's Whitney on Aug. 6.
The prices on Nyquist, winner of the Kentucky Derby, last year's champion 2-year-old male, and who suffered his first defeat in the Preakness after being fried in a speed duel, and Exaggerator, winner of the Preakness, runner up in the Kentucky Derby, but a hugely disappointing 11th in the Belmont Stakes, are lower than some might expect. I know I wouldn't consider them at 7-1 and 8-1, respectively, not when you can get the prices now offered on California Chrome, Beholder, and Frosted. But I sense the prices on Nyquist and Exaggerator are influenced by the way the Triple Crown dominates the first half of the U. S. racing season, and I think they might drift the deeper we get into the second half of the year, and the closer we get to the Breeders' Cup.
How about Dortmund (remember him?) at 10-1? Dortmund, who won the first six starts of his career, was thought to be the main threat to American Pharoah in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, in which he finished third. He appeared poised for a monster 4-year-old campaign this year, but he's had as many injuries as starts over the last year, and hasn't even raced yet in 2016. However, Dortmund had six published workouts in June, and if he comes back the horse I have always thought he could be, he might be a very interesting addition to this mix.
Songbird is a sensational filly, but anyone who backs her at 12-1, or any price, is begging to be separated from their money. Songbird's connections have no intention whatsoever of running her in the Breeders' Cup Classic. I have more of a chance of running in the Classic than Songbird does.
Relative to the odds listed above, there are three horses who I find intriguing at much bigger prices. They are Creator, Melatonin, and Mohaymen.
Creator, pegged at 25-1, upset the Belmont Stakes in his last start. If you can draw a line though his troubled-trip outing in the Kentucky Derby (and you should, he had no chance to show what he could do in Louisville due to severe traffic), Creator has improved from race to race. And I wouldn't put continued improvement past him.
Melatonin is currently listed at 30-1, but that price really should take a tumble. The Breeders' Cup Classic will be run at Santa Anita at 1-¼ miles. There have been two Grade 1 races at 1 ¼ miles run at Santa Anita so far this year -- the Santa Anita Handicap, and the very recent Gold Cup at Santa Anita -- and Melatonin won both of them.
Mohaymen at 35-1 means he's five times the price of Nyquist, and while I'm not suggesting Mohaymen is a better horse than Nyquist, that price still strikes me as an overlay. Mohaymen was the 8-5 favorite against Nyquist when they met as unbeatens in the Florida Derby in April, and for whatever reason -- the wet track, a wide trip, a simple off day? -- Mohaymen clearly did not run his race finishing a soundly beaten fourth. He did, however, run much, much better when a rallying fourth in the Kentucky Derby after being farther off the pace than he is accustomed to.