Unless Turkey prioritises terrorism, violence will continue

Since the outbreak of revolutions in the Arab world five years ago, Turkey has been unable to shield itself from violence.

Although responsibility has not yet been claimed for Tuesday night's attack at Istanbul's Ataturk airport, which killed at least 41 people and injured more than 249, signs point to the Syria-based jihadist group Islamic State. Deadly bomb attacks over the past number of years in Turkey have been carried out by the terrorist group, often using Turkish citizens, who received training at camps in Isis-controlled Syria.

Turkey shares a 900km-long border with Syria, 100km of which is controlled by Isis on the Syrian side. Critics say the delay in Turkey's decision to allow US warplanes use air bases close to the Syrian border last year allowed Isis to build up capabilities throughout much of 2014 and 2015.

Moreover, Turkey’s decision to prioritise fighting Kurdish militias in northern Syria ahead of the Isis threat, a dispute which has been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Turkish citizens, has hampered the international coalition’s fight against Isis.

For several years, analysts and western politicians such as Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton have called for a no-fly zone to be imposed in northern Syria that would allow opposition groups, including powerful Kurdish militias and their various administrative arms, to push out Isis and establish a safe zone along Turkey's Syria border.

On the opposite side of the American political divide, senator John McCain said last year that “The only way you can staunch the humanitarian flow, the humanitarian disaster, is through some kind of a safe haven, and I think that’s achievable”.

Enforcement issue

The question of who would enforce and maintain a no-fly and buffer zone throws up further problems – part of the reason it has not come to pass – though perhaps best placed to secure and administer such a project are the same Kurdish militias.

During 2012 and 2013, before Isis emerged as the threat it is today, Turkey quietly armed rebel factions fighting the Syrian government, which Turkey has long wanted to leave power.

But as the war became more ferocious, moderate groups were pushed aside and lost personnel to radical forces including Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. Since then, Turkey has lost all control over any of the key players involved.

On top of that, thousands of foreign would-be jihadists descended on Turkey, often flying through Ataturk airport in Istanbul, en route to Isis-controlled northern Syria. Although the flow has slowed significantly this year, observers say much damage has already been done.

Months of air strikes on Isis positions in Syria and Iraq by the US and others have slowed, but by no means ended, the group's territorial gains, and now Turkey finds itself in their crosshairs.

Many times over recent months, Turkish security forces have apprehended and killed Isis terrorists in and around Gazientep province in southeast Turkey before they carried out attacks or passed over the border to Syria. The territory controlled by Isis on the Syrian side gives it direct access to Turkey, from where it has launched rocket attacks on Turkish towns that have killed dozens of civilians.

Effective counter-force

Kurdish groups have shown themselves to be the most effective counter-force to Isis on the ground and have already set up governance structures, but Ankara fears their successes may encourage separatist Kurds in Turkey to seek autonomy for themselves. It therefore remains unwilling to back what is perhaps the most important bulwark to Isis.

Turkey says the YPG or People’s Protection Units militias are allied with the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, and it has shelled YPG positions in northern Syria in the past. Kurds in Turkey were outraged when Turkey stopped fighters from entering Kobane via the Turkish border crossing when facing an onslaught from Isis in September and October 2014, adding to tensions between the state and its Kurdish minority.

Last July, the conflict with separatist Kurdish groups in Turkey finally reignited. The army has conducted numerous operations on Kurdish towns in the southeast while dozens of police and security officers have since been assassinated.

Turks are growing increasingly weary that terrorism is becoming part of their everyday lives. Those who remember the violence during the 1990s, when the state battled the PKK, for the most part support the government’s operations in the southeast.

Attacks such as Tuesday’s airport blasts are likely to continue as long as Isis maintains a presence along Turkey’s border. It appears that, in the short term at least, little will change and the violence will go on.