Quick Fallujah victory bodes well for Mosul

A relatively quick victory over the Islamic State in Fallujah has raised hopes that Mosul, a much bigger prize in the fight against the Islamic State, will not be as difficult for Iraqi forces to recapture as initially feared.

Morale among Islamic State fighters has plummeted and its recruits are running away from clashes with Iraqi forces, Brett McGurk, a special envoy to the coalition against the Islamic State, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

McGurk said the group’s days are “numbered” in the northern city of Mosul, but he declined to place a timeline on how long it would take to recapture that city.

Fight for Fallujah may be over, but people can't go home yet

Iraqi troops, backed by coalition airstrikes, have already begun seizing territory around Mosul, but a final assault into the city may still be months away.

Iraq’s military declared Sunday that it had liberated Fallujah, about five weeks after the operation began. By contrast, it took about four months of fighting before Ramadi, another important Sunni city west of Baghdad, was recaptured in December.

Iraqi commander: 'Fallujah fight is over'

Ramadi is a larger city, but the speed of the Fallujah fight has exposed the diminished strength of the Islamic State, also called ISIL or ISIS, and a new confidence of Iraqi security forces, which had all but collapsed two years ago when the Islamic State captured large swaths of Iraq.

“ISIL fighters are panicking on the battlefield, foreign recruits are now looking to return home, and leaders are struggling to maintain discipline, even despite the threat of execution for disobedience,” McGurk said.

The Islamic State has lost about 45% of the territory it controlled at its peak last year in Iraq and about 20% of what it once occupied in Syria, the Pentagon has said.

Even as it loses territory, however, the Islamic State has managed to launch or inspire devastating terror attacks in the West. It has also managed massive car bomb attacks inside Baghdad.

Critics have said the pace of the Obama administration’s strategy to defeat the Islamic State has been slow and lacks urgency.

“We can nibble around the edges,” said Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., but he said the administration lacks a broader strategy for defeating the terror group.

Analysts said Iraqi forces performed better in the Fallujah campaign than in previous operations and are now able to counter most tactics employed by the militants.

Iraqi forces are better at getting through elaborate minefields and other obstacles established by militants. The obstacles had slowed Iraqi forces in Ramadi.

Iraqi forces have begun using U.S.-supplied line charges, or explosive ropes attached to rockets. The rockets fire the line charges a distance of several hundred feet, and the explosion clears a path wide enough for vehicles.

Iraqi forces are also using anti-tank missiles to blow up heavily reinforced truck bombs that militants have used against Iraqi forces.

In Fallujah, the new tactics allowed U.S.-backed Iraqi troops to move more quickly through obstacles established by the militants. Once inside the city, the Iraqi forces made quick work of the militants who had remained behind.

“A year ago they were very hesitant,” said British Maj. Gen. Doug Chalmers, deputy commander of the task force fighting the Islamic State. “Even the lightest bit of resistance would cause them to pause and to hold off.”

Ismael Alsodani, a retired Iraqi brigadier general, said Iraq’s military has improved at coordinating its forces. The offensive to clear Fallujah was carried out by a combination of counterterrorism units, army special forces and national police. Conventional army units, tribal forces and local police will move in afterward to maintain security.

The U.S.-led coalition conducted more than 100 airstrikes during the five-week offensive to retake the city.

Mosul, a much larger city which may still have 1 million civilians, will be a greater challenge for Iraqi forces, which will need to move cautiously through the sprawling city to avoid civilian casualties. It may also be difficult to use airstrikes or artillery because of the number of civilians inside the city.

The number of militants inside Mosul had been estimated earlier this year at about 6,000.

But the improvements in Iraqi capabilities and a decline in militant strength will make the offensive less formidable than it seemed a year ago, analysts say.

Alsodani said the militants inside Mosul lack discipline, training and the will to fight. They can be quickly overwhelmed.

“The fight in Mosul will be from every direction,” he said. “ISIS doesn’t have the ability to defend from all sides.”