Cameron’s successor will have to tackle mess

“The strangest things you’ve ever heard Like gospels of a virgin birth Or God writes books and heaven and earth Were created in seven days (Or was it six ) Belief displays: Faith is the Father of theAbsurd.” From

The Indo-Nigerian Poems of Siva Mtimbas

(Ed. By

Bachchoo

)

Britain has decided to leave the European Union. The vote demonstrates that Britain is a deeply divided society as the decision to leave was made by 52 per cent of those who voted, with 48 per cent electing to remain. On Friday morning, as the final votes were counted and the result was decisive, David Cameron emerged from the Prime Minister’s 10 Downing Street residence to address the press and announced that he would resign by October, making way, he said, for a new leader to take Britain in the direction he had opposed. He said he had with his head, heart and soul believed Britain was better off within the European Union and now chose not to be the PM who would negotiate Britain’s departure from it. He wanted his party to elect a new leader by October, when it will hold its annual conference. His resignation will mean an upheaval not only in his party but throughout the nation. The Tory Party leadership is constitutionally determined by its MPs choosing two candidates which it offers on a ballot to the general party membership. The winning candidate, who automatically becomes PM, will inherit a deeply divided party and nation and may opt to legitimise his/her leadership by holding a general election. Such a prospect will almost certainly mean turbulence in the Labour Party. An overwhelming number of traditional Labour supporters voted for Brexit. The leadership of the Labour Party, advocating a vote to remain, has been shown to be out of step with its supporters. Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Party leader, was not seen to offer strong leadership in the campaign and the new PM may calculate this schism could be exploited through a snap election. Labour, anticipating such a move, may very well attempt to replace Mr Corbyn with a person they feel is more likely to win it.

The turbulence in both parties may not be publicly evident immediately as candidates for both leaderships will hedge their bets. The horse-trading will take place behind closed stable doors.

The most likely candidate to emerge on the Tory side as the next PM is Boris Johnson, former London mayor, now MP for Uxbridge and minister without portfolio in the Cameron government. He was the leading voice for Brexit in the referendum campaign, asserting the vote to leave the EU was a vote for “independence”. Boris has repeatedly denied his support for Brexit and opposition to Mr Cameron was a gamble to unseat the PM and move into Downing Street. The denial strikes most people as a strategically hollow feint. It certainly strikes me as such. Years ago, when Michael Howard was Tory leader and I was acquainted with Boris, I told him I expected him to make a bid for the leadership. He vehemently denied it even then.

I made his acquaintance in peculiar circumstances. Charles Sobhraj, whose life and crimes I was writing about, approached me with a possible story about Iraq and nuclear weaponry for which he said he had firm and personal evidence. He wanted an introduction to a British newspaper which would run the story and pay him for it. Boris was then editor of The Spectator, and through one of its writers I contacted him and introduced him to Sobhraj.

Boris was subsequently elected MP for Henley-on-Thames, where my youngest daughter went to school. I was fetching her from school one afternoon when Boris was, with his entourage, visiting the school in his capacity as the local MP.

He was, to say the least, startled to see me there and asked what I was doing in leafy Henley. “I thought you lived in Brixton”, he said, naming a part of London which is densely West Indian.

He asked to be introduced to my daughter, and when we got chatting I put the question of the party leadership to him. I thought I detected a deep set insincerity in his dismissive denial of any ambition in that direction. Of course, he is biding his time. The first statement he made after the result was a paean to David Cameron, saying how sad he was that his “old friend” had resigned. Ho Ho! As he himself might say.

His candidacy is nevertheless a certainty. Whoever replaces Mr Cameron as Prime Minister will have to face the consequences of the referendum result which, however much the advocates of Brexit present it as an opportunity, seem disastrous.

On the morning after the result, the pound fell to its lowest value in 40 years. The UK’s trading prospects are undoubtedly threatened.

Boris proceeded to reassure the world that Britain would remain united and still be Great Britain.

That too may be whistling in the dark. Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU but after the result the Irish Republic, which is in the EU, threatens to impose visa restrictions on its citizens after closing the hitherto-open border. The “nationalist” Sinn Fein party has signalled its intention of campaigning for Northern Ireland to secede from Great Britain and possibly reunite it with the Irish Republic.

Scotland also voted overwhelmingly to remain and the Scottish First Minister said the prospect of it demanding independence and re-entering Europe is now a distinct possibility.

That Britain is divided is incontestable. That any leader of the Brexit campaign can heal the breaches is at best wishful thinking — but one must watch these spaces.

end-of