Lost in the din around Brexit, was the news coming out of Seoul, South Korea but it should be just as worrying, if not depressing.
At the 26th plenary of the Nuclear Suppliers group where India was hoping it would finally get a seat at the nuclear high table, it turns out it was not just the Chinese but half a dozen countries who were opposed to India’s membership bid.
Turns out the Irish, the Turks, the Kiwis and the Austrians were stridently opposed.
But the deepest cut of all must have come from Brazil and South Africa, partners in BRICS who have not opposed India’s bid but simply said there should be a common criteria for all non-NPT signatories. So it’s evident that the glorified spin of MEA mandarins that it was ‘consensus minus one’ turned out to be a fallacy.
We are still knocking at the doors of this exclusive nuclear club. But how did we get here in the first place and will there be any accountability for the people who led us up this garden path?
Back when the nuclear deal was struck with the US in 2005-06, the Americans had made a mention in the joint statement that they will help us gain entry into the four exclusive clubs NSG, MTCR, Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia Group.
That got firmed up further when President Obama made an explicit commitment to shepherd us into the NSG during his first trip to India in 2010.
But in between, something extraordinary happened. In 2008, all members of the NSG made a one-time waiver for India which enables us to take part in nuclear commerce without any of the restrictions that hindered us before. This was a one-time exemption. Made only for India. No other country has had this privilege. And that was good enough for our purpose of nuclear trade.
Somewhere along the line the Modi government made a political calculation (and not particularly well-thought through) to go all out to secure membership to this elite nuclear club.
There was no explanation for why this pressing hurry. Why did it have to happen in 2016? The reason given was they wanted to lock it in before President Obama demits office and since he had made an explicit commitment to do so, India could expect him to lean on the doubting Thomases within this club to throw their weight behind his friend Modi.
This argument is a little disingenuous because it says we can’t expect a similar commitment from Hillary, never mind every expert who suggests that Hillary’s foreign policy will be like four more years of Obama.
The fears of a Trump presidency and whether he will be just as committed to India is also a flawed argument. It discounts the bipartisan support for India among both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill.
We have no reason to believe that Trump the businessman would not understand the huge business opportunities for big American companies like Westing House and GE to profit from building reactors for India.
So that brings us to the big question. Why were we led up this garden path? And by whom? Who was in such a tearing hurry to do this? So much so, Sushma Swaraj who is normally an extremely cautious minister openly said in her annual press conference last week that the deal will be done in 2016 itself.
She even threw caution to the winds by saying India doesn’t have a problem with other non-NPT countries coming into the NSG fold i.e. the Modi government, which is so hawkish and neo-nationalist when it comes to Pakistan was actually ok with letting Islamabad into this exclusive club.
A country whose nuclear program was grand-fathered by AQ Khan, a man who was accused of selling nuclear secrets to North Korea, Iran and Libya.
Hopefully, Seoul will be a wake-up call for a Prime Minister who is accused of travelling abroad excessively. The Modi government should stop focusing on the spin and focus on the substance.
Selfies and collecting air miles are not a substitute for real diplomacy. Make no mistake, our hurry to cast our lot with America in her battles with China is what spooked Beijing. It is what got us here. You can single out China and abuse her all you want. That’s not going to help you get a seat on the global high-table.
Great powers don’t indulge in name and shame. They indulge in quiet diplomacy behind the scenes. They work the phones. Shyam Saran and Shiv Shankar Menon will testify to that.
That’s how we won the clean waiver. And that’s how we’ll enter the NSG. One day. Inshallah.