Why Clayton Kershaw No. 1?
Simple: When it comes to rankings, at this stage of the season, they're designed to serve a primary purpose: gauging a player's trade/pickup value. When it comes to trades, if there's a "blank check" player, Kershaw's it.
Consider the facts: Kershaw's 1.58 FIP and 1.7 percent walk rate this season both rank second, his 1.57 ERA fifth, his 34.1 percent strikeout rate seventh...in any single, ERA-qualified year since World War I. This season, he's tops in the majors in all of those categories except K rate, easily leading in the others.
Kershaw doesn't only top our Player Rater, he does so with a score more than 15 percent greater than the No. 2 player, Jose Altuve. Kershaw leads in strikeouts and is on pace to finish with 25 more than anyone else; he leads in Player Rater ERA contribution, his value 22 percent better than Madison Bumgarner; and he leads in Player Rater WHIP contribution, his value 77 percent better than Julio Teheran. He's also on pace for 24 wins, which would be the most by any pitcher in five years.
Granted, if we were in the midst of draft season, I'd need to do some soul-searching to determine whether I'd truly select Kershaw with the first overall pick. After all, I tend to build my teams around loaded, power-heavy offenses, leaning on more of a matchups/streaming strategy on the pitching side.
Today, however, I wouldn't hesitate to move any individual hitter in exchange for Kershaw straight up. Though, as with any such transaction, that's context-driven; I'd do so assuming Kershaw fit a specific roster need.
But enough about Kershaw, an obvious fantasy superstar. Crafting this week's Going Forward Rankings, here are some quick thoughts about the week's other movers...
Bryce Harper continues to drop, and a ranking in the teens was a consideration, as he's only 58th on our Player Rater...among outfielders on the "Last 30" split. Grading Harper a first-round value is a testament to his natural talent rather than recent results, and while this might be the rare time he'd actually cost a fair price on the trade market, I'll admit I'm not even certain he'll out-perform any of the names ranked among my top 19 players overall from this point forward.
That pitcher with a greater strikeout rate than Kershaw? It's Jose Fernandez, whose 36.8 percent number trails only Pedro Martinez's 37.5 in 1999 and Randy Johnson's 37.4 in 2001 on the all-time, single-season list. If I could count on an equal number of innings pitched from Fernandez and my No. 2 starting pitcher, Max Scherzer, going forward, Fernandez would belong directly behind Kershaw, and in the top 10 overall. Unfortunately, my guess is that Fernandez will accumulate 30 fewer innings -- roughly four starts' worth -- than Scherzer the rest of the way.
Stephen Strasburg (back) is expected to make his next scheduled start on Sunday, but even the smallest of health questions bumped him to what's the back end of the second starting pitching tier -- Kershaw is in his own at the top.
Ian Desmond is now on pace for 25/29 numbers, which would represent his fourth career 20/20 season. These were his overall Player Rater finishes in the three others, all of which resulted in lower batting averages than his current .313: 38th (2012), 44th (2013), 33rd (2014). Keep that in mind even if you're assuming regression to his batting average, as I am (.260-.270 seems more realistic going forward).
It's time to embrace Wil Myers as a trustworthy fantasy option, despite his injury history as well as his calling a pitching-friendly venue, Petco Park, home. He has appeared in 70 and started 67 of the San Diego Padres' 72 games, comparable to the durability he showed as a rookie in 2013 -- 88 games and 85 starts in 94 Tampa Bay Rays team games -- with only his 13.3 home run/fly ball percentage a mild regression concern. Keep in mind, incidentally, that his rookie-year homer/fly ball percentage was 12.7, so Myers' current rate might be reasonable.
Justin Upton appears to have finally adjusted to American League pitching, though at this stage he's probably closer to the player we saw from 2012-15 than something greater than that. His average Player Rater finish during that four-year span: 57th.
Though he doesn't feel like a top 100 fantasy talent, Jonathan Villar is surely performing like one, with little sign of slowing down. Even if he cools, a .330 on-base percentage, 20 more steals and 40 more runs looks like a guarantee.
In the past 30 days, per PitchF/X data available on FanGraphs, Adam Wainwright's curveball has been worth 8.2 runs above average, best in the majors.
Adrian Gonzalez feels under-ranked at No. 94 overall and the No. 16 first baseman, but that first base tier that ranges from Albert Pujols to Gonzalez is awfully tight in value. Go with personal preference in that group.
If I had a promise that Troy Tulowitzki would stay healthy for every remaining Toronto Blue Jays game, I'd have seriously considered ranking him and Trevor Story side-by-side (though Story would still have the age and ballpark advantage).
What will it take for Steven Wright to convince fantasy owners he's legit? He's still available in 15.3 percent of ESPN leagues. Wright might not be 2012-level R.A. Dickey, but he exhibits similar, high velocity on his knuckleball and might not be far off it.
Before his Tuesday start, Aaron Nola ranked a good 25 spots higher, but his outing was that concerning. He had never afforded as many as three walks in consecutive starts as a professional and wasn't missing bats, his swinging strike rate unusually low. David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News tweeted Wednesday morning that Nola's fastball release point has shifted this season compared to last, and while that could signal the need for a mere mechanical change, I do wonder whether there's more to Nola's recent struggles than that or the tough previous two matchups.
Shin-Soo Choo's rankings adjustment is more of a correction to his Week 11 number -- that was likely 25-40 overall spots too low -- than any specific, single-week development. He's playing regularly with the same batting eye he showed pre-injury.
The J.D. Martinez injury adjustment might be too pessimistic, but his isn't an insignificant injury and I worry whether he might return on the latter end of his projected 4-6 week timetable, not to mention take some time following his return to get back to full speed. I'll adjust in the coming weeks if need be.
Jake Lamb's boost in the rankings is more about his five starts in the Arizona Diamondbacks' past nine games against a left-hander as well as his .327 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage against lefties this year -- he's no longer entirely helpless against his weaker platoon side -- as well as Brandon Drury's recent demotion than Lamb's own hot start. Lamb is now an everyday player and is ranked like one; sort of the left-handed equivalent of Danny Valencia, who made a similar such jump roughly a month ago.
If only Jon Gray wasn't a Colorado Rockies pitcher:
Home: 5 GS, 5.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 25.2 K%, .336 wOBA, .312 BABIP, 17.2 HR/FB%
Road: 6 GS, 4.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28.1 K%, .280 wOBA, .292 BABIP, 8.6 HR/FB%
He'd belong at the back end of the top 40 starters on (most) any other team.
Pedro Alvarez is a .340/.373/.745 hitter with six home runs in 14 games in the month of June, to bring his seasonal wOBA up to .344, two points shy of his previous single-season high of .346, set in 2010. Ignore the cold April, for largely the same reason you should forgive the aforementioned Upton for his sluggish first month.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past week. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Clay Buchholz (RP), Matt Carpenter (1B, 2B), Chase d'Arnaud (3B), Edwin Diaz (RP), Whit Merrifield (OF), Zach Neal (RP), Jhonny Peralta (3B), Jimmy Paredes (OF), Luis Perdomo (SP), Sean Rodriguez (OF), Andrew Romine (OF), Ryan Rua (1B), Anibal Sanchez (RP), Chris Stratton (RP).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position.
Cristhian Adames (2B, 8 games), Mike Aviles (2B, 8 games), Javier Baez (SS, 8 games), Darwin Barney (3B, 9 games), Andres Blanco (1B, 8 games), Daniel Castro (3B, 9 games), Chase d'Arnaud (2B, 8 games), Paul Janish (3B, 9 games), Jurickson Profar (3B, 9 games), Andrew Romine (1B, 8 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 12
Listed below are my updated, going-forward rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here to see these rankings sorted by position.
Updated Top 250 Rankings
* Overall 2016 Player Rater season ranking. Position eligibility is determined based upon a minimum of 20 games, otherwise the position the player appeared at most, in 2015, or a minimum of 10 games in 2016. "NR" in the "Previous Rank" column means that the player resided outside the top 250 in last week's edition.