Tucson's Sunnyside schools prepare for long-term enrollment dip

The study, conducted by Davis Demographics and Planning Inc., which works with K-12 schools around the country, projected that the district would lose about 200 students a year.

“There is nothing in our projections or in the factors that we see that’s changing that,” Scott Torlucci of the demography firm told the Governing Board last week.

Declining enrollment would inevitably result in reduced funding, as the state calculates school funding based on the average number of students. Should enrollment decrease steadily as projected, the district could face school reconfigurations or consolidations in coming years.

The Sunnyside board commissioned the study when it found earlier in the school year that enrollment had decreased for the 2015-2016 year, said Javier Baca, Sunnyside’s chief information officer.

The district noticed that the kindergarten population was much smaller than the typical year-to-year figure, he said. Usually, kindergarten enrollment is in the mid 1,400s — for 2015-16 school year, it was in the low 1,200s.

“We were looking out for any significant changes,” Baca said.

The demographic study factored in birth rates in the area, student mobility and transfer data, historic data from the past four years and where students live.

Primary factors for the decline in enrollment included Sunnyside community’s aging population, the high rate of people moving out of the area and a lack of residential development in the community, the study found.

The report also showed that Sunnyside serves about 79 percent of the community’s 19,000 school-age children. Particular areas, including the Drexel elementary, Rivera and Los Amigos attendance areas, may see a steeper decline in enrollment , according to Baca.

It’s difficult to speculate what could cause more of a decline in those particular areas, he said.

But the district knows that in areas such as Los Amigos, where many families live in mobile home parks or apartment buildings, turnover tends to be high.

“Things could change,” he said. “But that’s where it stands right now.”

The findings of the report would help the board prepare for what’s to come , said Eva Carrillo Dong, a Sunnyside board member.

Ultimately, the study would help the district spend money more appropriately, she said. Fewer students could mean adjusting transportation, teacher staffing and equipment inventory.

“We will be able to have a better idea and a better ability to address those things,” she said.