Cantillon: No idle gossip in Smurfit investor plans

As Smurfit Kappa glides towards inclusion in the Ftse 250 index later this month, the company's investor day last week focused on bringing the London market investment community up to speed on its evolution over the past decade.

It’s been quite the roller-coaster ride.

Shares in the paper packaging group plunged to a low point of a little over €1 in 2008, as investors fretted it faced financial Armageddon as a result of its massive debt pile. They’ve since surged to more than €23.50 after the company focused during the financial crisis years on paying down debt, before turning its sights again in 2014 on the growth strategy that had been put on ice after its 2007 flotation.

Newbie investors may have been impressed by chief executive Tony Smurfit’s slides at the London presentation highlighting Smurfit Kappa’s proven ability to generate cash even when the European paper packaging industry is under the cosh.

But more regular followers, such as David O’Brien at Goodbody Stockbrokers, were more intrigued by indications from management that the group is planning a follow-up to its hugely successful €150 million “quick win” capital spending programme which is due to come to an end this year.

The current programme, which started in 2014, is aimed at delivering what the group calls over 100 “operational efficiency-led projects”. Leaving the corporate jargon aside, it is set to boost operating profits by €75 million by the end of 2016 – an impressive 50 per cent return in less than three years.

The only real nugget of news from the capital markets day pales in comparison to the baseless takeover speculation that was swirling around Smurfit Kappa at its annual investor get-together last year, in Amsterdam – which had sent the stock rocketing to a record near €30.

Still, it offers something for real investors to get on board with.