A significant majority of business leaders here who believe that a vote by Britain to leave the EU would adversely impact their businesses, but one commentator is not sure that a Brexit would be as catastrophic an event as some of the headlines suggest.
Eamonn Walsh, Professor of Accounting at the UCD College of Business, said an examination of the trade statistics provides a more nuanced view of the situation. "Once you look under the bonnet and ask what are the actual exports between Britain and Ireland, you see that, for example, Britain exports olive oil to Ireland and vice versa. There are very few olive tress in Ireland or Britain. A lot of this trade isn't really trade at all. People are taking it all together, adding it up and saying Brexit would be catastrophic," he explained.
Professor Walsh estimated that this accounted for about 30% of trade between the two islands, leaving a significant 70% of trade that could be subject to tariffs and trade agreements in the event of a vote to leave. "Britain collects tariffs when sneakers are imported from China. Many of those tariffs would simply be collected here. And for exports to Britain, the effects would not be that great. Should Britain have to pay tariffs on its exports to the EU, it would give a competitive advantage to Irish food companies that could occupy some of that space in the absence of Britain," he added.
On the sterling impact of a vote to leave, Professor Walsh said we simply would not know the effect until the vote takes place. "If there are that many smart people who know it's going to drop by 15%, they should mortgage their houses because that would be the ultimate bet to earn 15% overnight on the outcome of this election," he concluded.
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MORNING BRIEFS - Germany's 10 year bond yield is pushing towards zero and is at its lowest level in over a year. That makes it incredibly cheap for the country to borrow and finance its debt but it also proves its point in an ongoing argument it is having with the ECB about the bank's stimulus programme. The ECB is buying up the debt of governments all over Europe to try to encourage growth. But Germany says this is just driving down bond yields and that it is having an adverse impact on pensions while the bank's low interest rate policy is also impacting on savings.
*** The four star Farnham Hotel and Golf Club and Spa resort in Cavan is being brought to market today with a guide price of €26m. The 158 bedroom hotel is currently operated by the Radisson Group and it is being sold with or without the current management agreement or franchise. The hotel is being brought to market by Savills Estate Agents on behalf of the receiver Aidan Murphy of Crowe Howarth.
