FOLLOWING Mullah Akhtar Mansour’s death in a US drone strike in Balochistan province, the Afghan Taliban have elected Maulvi Haibatullah Akhundzada as their new supreme leader. Significantly, the succession process this time around was smooth sailing — unlike the sharp divisions over Mansour’s nomination a year ago.

Hailing from Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual base, Haibatullah is a respected but low-profile religious scholar. He was the least controversial choice, according to sources in the 17-member leadership council. Most senior leaders and commanders unanimously agreed on his ascendancy to the top slot.

Contrary to his predecessor who was denounced for creating road blocks in the thorny reconciliation campaign and blamed for the sharp spike in attacks across Afghanistan, Haibatullah has been in charge of issuing the Taliban’s fatwas. Belonging to the Ishaqzai tribe of Pakhtuns, he was known to be living in Afghanistan but in close contact with the Quetta shura.

Maulvi Haibatullah’s election indicates the Afghan Taliban are united.

His appointment is intended to send a message to the world that the militants remain united despite the loss of a dreaded commander, whose guerrilla warfare skills sent chills down the spine of Afghan and US forces. The latest decision of the Shura-i-Rehbari is starkly different from the situation it had to struggle with in July 2015 when Mullah Omar’s death was announced.

In an attempt at countering aversion to his stewardship from important figures, including Omar’s son and brother, Mansour had ramped up the attacks. His most important challenge was to demonstrate total loyalty to the movement and shake off the label of Pakistani lackey.

Apparently, Haibatullah lacks the stature of his predecessors but his election is expected to hold the group together and neutralise propaganda regarding deep fissures within the Taliban. The shura appears to have done a commendable job to forge consensus on the successor to Mansour.

Optimism among Afghan and American officials of a decline in violence after Mansour’s departure appears misplaced. As we have seen over the past 15 years, there has been an uptick in the insurgency with the killing of each important commander. Taliban’s shadow governors and commanders in provinces are fiercely independent in terms of operations at the local level.

Now that the succession has happened in an orderly manner, the fighters’ morale will remain high. If there had been an inordinate delay in the new leader’s nomination, cynicism would have spilt onto the battleground. But there was no dissension and Haibatullah has apparently minimal links with regional spy networks, issues that dogged Mansour to his bitter end.

The new Taliban leader, lacking political savvy and the advantage of being an incumbent with easy access to cash, will have to prove he is indeed the best choice and a renowned holy warrior. Jihadist credentials are necessary for the leader of an outfit like the Taliban to establish his legitimacy. The perception is he will have to be in Pakistan’s good books to use the country as a rear base for fighting in Afghanistan.

However, there have been indications of a change of heart in Pakistan with reports that the security establishment wanted the Taliban to start peace talks with the Ashraf Ghani administration. But Mansour refused to negotiate with Kabul and opted for ratcheting up the violence.

Haibatullah has to walk a tightrope in dealing with global jihadi groups, such as Al Qaeda and the militant Islamic State group. Will he be able to retain the Taliban’s monopoly over the leadership of what the in­­surgents call jihad in Afgha­nis­tan? He will have to win the confide­nce of major regional actors, inc­l­u­ding Pak­­istan, Iran, China and Russia, to counter IS. But proximity to Al Qaeda will leave the new Taliban supremo facing America’s vengeance.

His response to the Quadrilateral Co­­­­­­­­or­­dination Group’s calls for the Taliban to hold talks with the Afghan government will be a litmus test of Haibatullah’s diplomacy. Any decision in this regard will have a direct bearing on the Taliban’s global image. He will be well-advised to resist the temptation of military ambitions.

The drone strike may have removed a ruthless commander from the battlefield, but it has dealt a blow to the reconciliation drive. How much it will undercut the Taliban’s fighting prowess is yet to be seen. The raid, however, will prolong the longest war in America’s history on the one hand and dash hopes for a political settlement on the other.

Though the US publicly backs the Afghan peace drive and talks with the Taliban, its military operations tend to scuttle the reconciliation campaign. By resorting to the drone strike in the current situation, the Obama administration has done a disservice to an ally that remains heavily reliant on its support for restoring security and stability.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Peshawar.

Published in Dawn, May 29th, 2016