Election ‘Made in Belarus’, or unique political performance. Belsat TV interviews Slovakia’s former FM


Granting the interview to Belsat TV journalist Hanna Liubakova, Pavol Demeš, Slovakia’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs, makes some slightly ironic remarks on all types of elections in Belarus, comments on lifting sanctions and the future of Belarus-EU relations and hopes the West keeps supporting Belarusian civil society and independent media projects like Belsat TV.

Belsat TV: Has the European Union actually changed its policy towards Belarus?

Pavol Demeš: Belarus is one of the countries with which the EU has long-standing problems when it comes to relationships since Belarus is rather a typical regime. This fact excluded it even from the Council of Europe.

EU leaders said that sanctions policy will be pushing Belarus to creating more liberal, more democratic, more open environment. It did not work. In the end, European leaders decided to lift sanctions believing that new interactions on all levels – political, social, cultural, economic – may lead to the normalization of the country.

I think that a key impetus which changed the attitude of European leaders was developments in Ukraine. Geopolitical shifts in post-Soviet space is a huge challenge. I thinл it was the primary reason why European leaders changed their attitudes.

There is a change in attitude and approach, but there are no changes in Belarus. In your opinion, has the EU policy towards Belarus failed?

It is very difficult to explain to the Belarusian people and in particular, to democratic forces which have been struggling to make the situation in the country, I would say, more European and open. The fact that the regime is not changing and EU attitude is changing is in some way – from my point of view – a sign of weakness of European position towards Belarus. I think that Alyaksandr Lukashenka is a very skilful politician who is balancing between Russia and the West. In my opinion, the European leaders’ arguments for lifting sanctions were not strong enough taking into account some pressing issues like civil liberties, human rights, political prisoners and their rehabilitation. Since I am Slovak and a EU citizen, not only a citizen of Slovakia, I know that developing relationships with Belarus is very dilemmatic, but the simple fact that sanctions were lifted does not reflect the changes in Belarus, it rather reflects harsh realities or complicated realities of relationships between Russian and its immediate neighbourhood. And the war that started between Russia and Ukraine made many people in the EU re-think and try to find out different approaches towards Belarus.

The parliamentary election is to take place in Belarus in September. As you know, our opposition is not united. Does it make sense to participate in the election?

I think what we see in Belarus, in particular in the last 10 years, is not elections. It is very unique political performance, but it is not true elections. I was an observer during the recent presidential election. I have never seen something like this. It is called elections but what you are having in Belarus is far from being free competition for office. And this dilemma – to participate or not to participate – is truly in the hands of Belarus politicians. I think the key is to use any opportunity in Belarus to galvanize politics or bring some alternative voices. The issue ‘to boycott or not to boycott’ is also a traditional thing which emerges before any election in Belarus. All is in the hands of Belarus politicians who are struggling to make the political life in the country more healthy.

Will there be any consequences if the EU sees election fraud?

I think that every election, including the recent presidential election in 2010 which resulted in mass protests, beatings, jailing protesters and seven presidential candidates, every election in the past years, according to international observers, OSCE observers, failed to meet standards. We can say even about the upcoming election that they do not meet standards even now because there is no equal opportunity for candidates to compete in this process. My expectation is that the final statements by European leaders and international community will be very similar. They will probably say there were no beatings and arrests but I think one can say there will be the election ‘Made In Belarus’, as I ironically call it.

Does Europe think that Lukashenka depends on Russia? Or does it believe him to be an independent politician? Do European leaders hope he will change in the future?

In my opinion, European leaders do not think that Alyaksandr Lukashenka will change. The nature of the political regime you have – the autocratic system – is not changing whether it was under pressure through sanctions or whether it is now after sanctions are lifted. I think these are facts of life and political reality that geopolitics matters. And secondly, the European Union is weakened. We are going to see a referendum in Great Britain next month, so it is hard to foresee how the European project will be evolving. When the EU is going through hard times, people have enough capacity to focus attention on fixing, or changing, or contributing to change European neighbourhood. I think that Belarus is very important from the geopolitical point of view, it is between Russia and the EU.

I think the European Union is keeping fingers crossed for Belarus, but the EU is not too naive to believe that Alyaksandr Lukashenka will quickly change. People do not believe in quick changes in Belarus, but we are trying to see opportunities to interact with your country to allow people to travel more, develop relationshops, study, do business.

By know people know very well that the Belarusian leadership is balancing and will be balancing in between Russia and the West. The key is to keep Belarus as a stable country which will be having its own political evolution, when the regime and those who are trying to compete with the current political class led by one man will result in something more European, something closer to standards.

Will the West keep supporting Belarusian civil society and independent media projects like Belsat TV?

One of the primary targets of assistance is also to help independent media, civil society, youth groups. Definite EU member countries are trying to develop as much relations as possible with your country. I think that media are one of the very strong targets, I think you can expect that there will be an attempt to help through all kinds of mechanisms. As an election observer, I was in Mahiliou region and I was trying to find out what is the main driving force for young people, but not only for them. I learnt two sentences which, in my opinion, capture the current situation in Belarus, and one of them is ‘Anything rather than war!’ which was referred not only to the Great Patriotic War, but also to the war that is just across the border, in Ukraine. People are scared to see some conflicts, wars when having so sad memories from the Second World War. And the other sentence was ‘One should carry on.’

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And I think people relied on this 22-year-old rule of Alyaksandr Lukashenka already. They know that it will not be changed easily, but Alyaksandr Lukashenka is sort of guarantor of stability, even if it is not so stable as people would like to see. We live in complicated times. It is crusial Belarus should have as many as possible relationships with EU countries as well. There are many people in the EU who care about Belarus and would like to be of help.

Interviewed by Hanna Liubakova, Belsat TV

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