Many LDP legislators see high possibility of double election

An increasing number of legislators within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are holding the firm view that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will likely dissolve the House of Representatives to call a snap general election to coincide with this summer's House of Councillors election.

They are sticking to this line of thought because opposition parties have firmed up their plan to submit a no-confidence motion against the Abe Cabinet by June 1, the last day of the current regular Diet session. The LDP legislators are beginning to believe that a double election for both chambers of the Diet is becoming a real possibility, but at the same time, they are also spreading such a view in an apparent bid to warn opposition parties against submitting a no-confidence motion.

Top LDP officials made a string of remarks on May 24 on the possibility of a double election. Regarding the possibility of opposition parties submitting a no-confidence motion against the Abe Cabinet, LDP Vice President Masahiko Komura said at the liaison meeting of the party board, "Non-aggressive politicians like me think that it is just fine to vote the no-confidence motion down in a matter-of-fact way, but to think something like 'Let's hear the opinions of the public' could be a good reason (for a double election)."

After the liaison meeting, LDP Secretary-General Sadakazu Tanigaki said about Komura's remarks, "I agree that it will be a good reason." LDP General Affairs Council Chairman Toshihiro Nikai also touched on the possibility of a double election. As for how to respond to a no-confidence motion, if submitted, Nikai said, "Voting it down in a matter-of-fact way is one of the methods. I think it is possible for the prime minister to go ahead and dissolve the lower house."

In line with discussions at the Group of Seven (G-7) Ise-Shima summit on May 26-27, Prime Minister Abe is planning to make a final decision on whether to postpone the government's plan to raise the consumption tax in April 2017 and dissolve the powerful lower chamber for a general election. Prime Minister Abe held talks with Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi at the prime minister's office on May 24. When Yamaguchi told Abe that there was talk of a double election, the prime minister was quoted as saying that he was entertaining no thought whatsoever of dissolving the lower house. Yamaguchi revealed their conversation after meeting with Abe.

However, there are ruling party legislators who do not take Abe's remark at face value. Therefore, the possibility of a double election is brewing within the ruling parties. A senior LDP legislator said, "There are also forces in the opposition camp who do not want the prime minister to dissolve the lower house. The talk of a double election is also meant to be a threat to opposition parties that are considering submitting a no-confidence motion."

Yukio Edano, secretary-general of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), said of the reason for submitting a no-confidence motion at a news conference on May 24, "We will demand the Abe Cabinet resign en masse." DP Diet affairs chief Jun Azumi said, "If the prime minister decides to hold a double election, we will take up the gauntlet."