Diaz: If not Trump and Arpaio, can anything make Latinos vote?

You’d think the kind of drama that played out with Prop. 123 engulfed everyone, but especially Latinos whose children make up most of Arizona’s public schools student population.

It doesn’t appear that was the case.

It turns out, the campaign for Prop. 123 knew its electorate pretty well and it successfully went for it.

Old, White and more Republican 

“Likely voters in this race differ dramatically from the larger electorate. More than half were over the age of 65,” wrote J.P. Twist, the campaign manager of Prop. 123 after the initiative’s narrow victory. The measure will inject $3.5 billion into schools over 10 years.

“They are more Republican, with an 11-point advantage over Democrats. And they are more Anglo – 82 percent white,” Twist noted in his post-election assessment.

That assessment should worry Hispanics in Arizona and across the country as the attention turns to the presidential and local elections in November.

For decades, Latinos have been touted as the “sleeping giant” who could dramatically change the political trajectory of some states and make a difference on the national level.

If not Trump and Arpaio, then who?

This year, voter registration groups are trying to capitalize on Latino anger toward presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. The sheriff is running for re-election and a federal judge found him in contempt of court over a racial profiling case.

"If Arpaio and Trump doesn’t motivate Latinos to vote, then I’m not sure who does,” said Alfredo Gutierrez, a fierce critic of Prop. 123 who supports Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket for president.

We don’t know how many Latinos voted during the May 17 special election, but by Twist’s account, we can presume very few.

Gutierrez isn’t surprised Latinos stayed home because special elections historically draw fewer people to the polls overall, and those who do vote tend to be predominantly white.

“The majority of our people still don’t vote,” said Gutierrez about Latino voter participation during special elections. “The number of Latinos voting has slowly crept up but the highest we’ve reached is 42 percent. That’s horrendous.”

Historical patterns paint a gloomy future for voter-registration efforts in Arizona and across the nation.

'Absolutely unchanged' registration rate

Fewer Latinos vote during non-presidential elections. But even during presidential elections, the turnout hasn’t kept pace with eligible voters, experts say.

Latinos register at a “lower rates than the other major U.S. race/ethnic groups,” according to the Center for Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies at the Graduate Center City University of New York.

The study, dubbed the Latino Voter Registration Dilemma, found that between the 1992 and 2012 presidential elections, “the voter registration rate among eligible Latino voters remained absolutely unchanged at about 58 percent.”

Nationwide, the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, or NALEO, estimates 13.1 million Hispanics will cast a ballot this year, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Even fewer Arizona Latinos are voting 

Yes, Latinos are expected to vote in record numbers – 13.1 million this year. But too many still aren’t registering. That means less than 50 percent of the nation’s more than 27 million eligible to vote will do so.

And in Arizona, the picture is even more askew. An estimated 433,000 Latinos will vote this November, an increase of 8 percent compared with 2012.

But  that percentage projected to vote is less than 44 percent and is actually low compared with other states, experts say. That's because some 30 percent of Latinos in Arizona eligible to vote – roughly 290,000 – aren't registered, according to NALEO.

There are many factors that contribute to political apathy, including educational, cultural and language barriers, as well as state laws the likes of House Bill 2023, which criminalizes people who collect and turn in early ballots on behalf of others.

Latino leaders tell me they're optimistic, and I want to share their enthusiasm. But history and recent voting records show that not even anger, frustration and fear have been enough to motivate most eligible Latinos to vote.

This year, the anti-immigrant rhetoric of Trump, Arpaio and their ilk might lure a few more Hispanics to the polls, but not in big enough numbers to become a powerful voting bloc.

Elvia Díaz is editorial columnist for The Republic and azcentral.com. Reach her at 602-444-8606 orelvia.diaz@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter, @elviadiaz1.