Most years, NFL teams get one first-round pick. The very lucky ones that have managed to snag extra selections in a trade sometimes get two. Even with one or two picks in the first round of the draft, though, there's no guarantee that when your turn is up, there will be players remaining on whom your team has a first-round grade. Most teams typically don't give that grade to 32 players. That number is usually lower.
Despite that fact, there are some occasions where a team is picking in the second round or later and still comes away with a player it gave a first-round grade.
That brings us to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs, like most NFL teams, have made one first-round selection in each of the last two years. They tabbed Jameis Winston with the No. 1 overall selection in 2015. The Bucs obviously had a first-round grade on him.
This year, they snatched up former Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III after trading down from No. 9 to the No. 11 pick. It should come as no surprise that Bucs GM Jason Licht and his staff also had a first-round grade on Hargreaves.
What may surprise you, though, is that the Bucs feel they have come away from the last two drafts with SEVEN first-round caliber players. It's not just Winston and Hargreaves, but 2015 second-rounders Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet, 2015 fourth-rounder Kwon Alexander, and 2016 second-rounders Noah Spencer and Roberto Aguayo that were all given first-round grades by Tampa Bay.
Here's a snippet from a lengthy post at PewterReport.com:
What most fans don't understand is that NFL teams' real draft boards don't resemble the "follow the leader" rankings from notable draft gurus. In fact, the Bucs have drafted seven players they had ranked as first-round caliber talent in the last two drafts alone in Winston, left tackle Donovan Smith, Marpet and Alexander in 2015, and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, defensive end Noah Spence and Aguayo in 2016.
"We think we got four last year," Licht said. "That's the goal - to get multiple first-round draft picks each year. When it's all said done, to look back and say, 'We got multiple first-round picks in this draft' -- that was the goal."
Licht told PewterReport that despite picking up Alexander in the fourth round last year, he knew when he acquired an extra fourth-round pick in 2016 by moving down from No. 9 to No. 11 that he was going to use it as ammo to go up and get Aguayo. Why?
"In the 2005-15 drafts in the fourth rounds, there were 390 players drafted in the fourth round," Licht said. "Twenty percent of those went on to become starters or Darren Sproles-type players. I consider Sproles as a starter even though he doesn't really start. He's a key player. Thirty-seven percent are career backups like Louis Murphy.
"Forty-three percent are out of the league, and 27 percent of those never logged a game in the NFL. You have a better chance of getting a guy in the fourth round that is never going to see a game than you do to get a starter."
That rationale would make a decent amount of sense if there weren't ample evidence that the entire draft is a crap shoot, and the idea that you're 100 percent right about the player you're trading up for is mostly bunk. When that player is a kicker, well ... we've already dumped on this trade enough.
Anyway, congrats to the Bucs on drafting seven first-rounders in two years. That's a great haul.
