Tamil Nadu poll results: Time not ripe yet for a third alternative

By Gnani Sankaran
The Tamil Nadu electorate has given a strange win-win situation for both the Dravidian majors AIADMK and DMK who fought each other bitterly in a do-or-die attitude in the just-concluded poll.

The ruling party AIADMK can be happy about winning a consecutive term, which remained elusive since 1984 to any party. AIADMK this time has successfully broken the conventional antiincumbency mood.

And it is a win-win situation also for the rival DMK which was desperate to capture power this time. Though it fell short by a few seats, the huge consolation is that it has resurrected itself as a party after the 2011 debacle when it could not even become the main opposition party . From that situation of just having 23 MLAs, DMK has now moved to a very assertive position being a dynamic opposition party inside the house.

The single factor responsible for the AIADMK's victory , no doubt, should be attributed to its supremo Jayalalithaa. The party relied only on her `Amma' brand which she blatantly and openly started promoting in her election campaign. While DMK's comeback success is presided over by its nonagenarian leader Kalaigner Karunanidhi, the real credit should go to his son and party treasurer MK Stalin. He had brought the party under his control and command more than a year back, planned the campaign strategy ,rebranded himself as a streetsmart leader of the masses through his walkathons and all these have now paid off.

The results have also shown that the Tamil Nadu electorate is still not ready to experiment with alternatives for the two Dravidian majors despite a host of alternatives placed before them. They have not voted substantially for the PMK, Peoples Welfare Front, BJP , Naam Thamizhar, which all claimed stake to be an alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK.

Vijayakanth and his DMDK were much-soughtafter allies before elections with a host of parties ranging from the BJP to the DMK wooing him to join them.His ultimate decision to go with an experimental Peoples Welfare Front led by Vaiko, neither helped him nor his alliance partners -the Marxists, Communists, Viduthalai Siruthaigal, Tamil Manilla Congress. Whatever this Front as a whole has polled even if by assumption had gone with the DMK, it would not have helped DMK to bridge its gap with AIADMK which is substantial 5% and more.

Despite the electorate making both the AIADMK and DMK happy with the present results, there are clear warning signals. For AIADMK, its vote share has dropped since 2011. Many of its party seniors and sitting ministers have been defeated in the elections despite the party wresting power.

And for the DMK, the signals from the electorate are equally important.

Stalin's control over the party and choice of candidates has also revealed that he is yet to totally break away from the mould his father had provided over decades.Despite openly claiming to correct past mistakes, he had not been able to do much about regional satraps still ruling the roost in the party .The electorate has punished the party in several places on these counts.

The real mystery of this election is why the electorate did not want any alternative to the AIADMK and DMK. The over one crore and more new voters have participated actively only to perpetuate status quo. It is a matter of concern for the well-intentioned leaders of the Peoples Welfare Front to analyse and understand why the electorate still does not consider them as credible alternatives.

The most positive outcome of this election would be that the new Tamil Nadu assembly could be a dynamic one with huge number of opposition MLAs participating. The task before both AIADMK and DMK is to use this opportunity constructively for dialogues on everything instead of wrangling matches.