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Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Naushad Forbes on Monday forecast the GDP growth for 2016-17 would be 8 per cent provided there is a normal monsoon this year.
“This coming year we have projected a (overall GDP) growth rate of 8 per cent on the back of a key assumption, that everything in the economy remains the same except that we have a normal monsoon. If you look at historical data of GDP growth, if you have a normal monsoon following a drought year, you see a jump back in agricultural growth,” Forbes said at a press conference here. “We are projecting an agricultural growth rate of 6 per cent this year as agri output recovers from 0-1 per cent growth. That adds about 0.5-1 per cent to GDP,” he said.
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According to Forbes, despite risk factors, most indicators seemed to point that the economy is headed in the right direction. There are still issues that are pending, like the GST and Bankruptcy Code; both of which are yet to be approved by the Rajya Sabha. “The reasons that are preventing GST are purely political. There are no significant differences now between the government and the Opposition for what needs to happen for GST to take place…,” Forbes said.
He lauded the Centre’s policy of allowing states to implement their own labour and land reforms. “The Central government has shown a very astute path by telling the state governments to pass their own land and labour legislations, since they are concurrent subjects. We have now seen five state governments — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and West Bengal — undertake land reforms which were approved by the Centre subsequently…”
“This is a very productive way in which the more politically contentious reforms can actually be progressed,” he said.
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