Constituency watch Thalassery - Marxist math vs 'Kutty miracle' in Left citadel

KANNUR: It is statistics and history that gives confidence to the CPM in its stronghold Thalassery, where DYFI leader A N Shamseer is not looking for victory alone but bettering the margin of 26,509 votes that Kodiyeri Balakrishnan had garnered in 2011.
But politics is not about history or statistics, because even the simple arithmetic need not be true here, says UDF candidate A P Abdullakutty, who believes in CPM ideologue EMS Namboothirippad's dictum that one plus one need not always be two in politics.
Abdullakutty has his own logic: I represent the politics of smile, not violence, he says.
“Do we need a politics that spits on the face of the opponent and on democracy?“ he asks, referring to a recent incident in which when someone spat on his shirt during the campaign. “Keep such things in mind, and even if you are a CPM follower, think of the political tie-up in West Bengal, where many CPM leaders are voting for the Congress,“ he said urging voters to break the barriers of ideology .
It's not known if the campaign will translate into votes, but it has surely enlivened it, feels K P Lineesh, a teashop owner in Monthal in the suburbs of Chokli.
“He gives a feeling that he is one among us, which also creates the impression that he has the capacity to win,“ he said.
There is disinterest among the young voters, who are not keen about the Left, says C K Rajan, a shop owner in Chokli.
“Anyone can make predictions, but Thalassery is highly political and that cannot be changed with gimmicks,“ said A K Dineshan, a CPM worker and a resident of Kathiroor.
Shamseer has been drawing attention to the development the LDF has brought to the constituency, saying he should be elected to ensure continuity in development.
But people are fed up and are looking for a change, said the BJP candidate V K Sajeevan.
“There has been a consistent increase in the vote share of the BJP and we are sure history is going to be rewritten this time,“ he said.
While the BJP got 6,973 votes in 2011 assembly election, it went up to 11,780 in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In the local body polls they got 24,000 votes.
What ultimately counts is the swing in the Muslim votes, said K P Mohanan, a local journalist.
“The scenario is similar to that of 1987 and 2006, when K Sudhakaran and Raj Mohan Unnithan took on Kodiyeri Balakrishnan by creating a storm, but this time we have to keenly observe the Muslim votes,“ he said.
The Welfare Party and the SDPI candidates are also in the fray which could divide the community votes. A Hindu vote consolidation in favour of the BJP is unlikely, though the party pampers such a hope, Mohanan said.