Nic Ashman previews the NSW meetings at Kembla Grange and Murwillumbah on Tuesday

HE has been stuck on 99 not out for much longer than expected, but today at Kembla Grange Bjorn Baker reckons he can finally register his 100th winner for the season.

The Warwick Farm-based trainer has enjoyed a breakout season, eclipsing his previous best mark of 62 wins in 2013-14.

Lubiton’s win at Beaumont on April 21 kicked off a winning streak for Baker. And when Bonny O’Reilly saluted at Nowra three days later, the trainer’s strike rate hit 33 per cent for his past 50 runners. But since then he has saddled up just two winners from 22 runners.

“I know how those cricketers feel when they can’t get off 99,” Baker said. “Under normal circumstances two winners from your last 22 is nothing to really worry about but when you’re chasing your first ton, you start to count them.”

And the New Zealand-born Baker is counting on Mystical Tale ­breaking the magic 100-win mark for the ­season in Tuesday’s Heat Of The Rising Star.

It’s a remarkable feat for someone who has only been training in Sydney for five years.

“Mystical Tale is unbeaten this campaign after two runs and that’s been a relief as she is a filly that I have always liked,” Baker said. “But in five previous runs to her current preparation, she could only manage a minor placing.”

The filly has won her two starts this time in at Orange — a track that has provided Baker with more wins this season than any other course in the country.

He has taken 26 runners out there in 2015-16 and walked away with 12 winners at the prolific strike rate of 46 per cent. But can Mystical Tale take winning country form to the provincials and taste success?

“I think she can,” he said. “She’s continued to improve with each start. And off what she’s shown at home, I think she will improve again. She won first-up by 1¼ lengths over 1280m and then won by three when we stepped her up to 1400m.

“Up to the mile will suit her even more. She gets her chance to complete the hat-trick here.”

Deanne Panya takes over from Thomas Huet in the saddle and Baker says punters shouldn’t read into that too much.

“We wanted to claim 3kg to keep her carrying the same weight as she did last start and the one before,” he said. “I like to keep the fillies and mares down in the weights where possible and Deanne is one of the most competent 3kg claimers going around.”

NIC ASHMAN’S BEST BETS

BEST: MEINER FRECCIA (Race 8, No. 2)

Japanese import part of the Group 1-winning stable of Kim Waugh. This four-year-old has been crying out for 200m but Waugh has built his foundation nicely and he goes into the race shaping as though he will peak here.

NEXT BEST: LORD MARMADUKE (Race 7, No. 1)

Gets to the 1400m for the first time here and the trip looks as though it will really suit him. Found a decent race last start and this is more suitable. Drawn to get all the favours and placed at his only start this track.

THE CHOKER: SPIETH (Race 2, No. 1)

Had the Tongue Tie on last start and that can mean the horse is susceptible to choking down. Be wary as Tongue Tie comes off here and we’ve seen Speith lose from an impossible position.

BOX FIRST 4: Race 4, No’s 1, 5, 6, 9.

STANDOUT QUINELLA: MEINER FRECCIA/HIS LORDSHIP, SWIFT CODE, JUST DYLAN (Race 8, No’s 2/1,5,7)

TRAINER TO WATCH: It’s a home game for GWENDA MARKWELL, who has trained 19 winners at Kembla this season. She has got seven runners across six races and is always hard to beat at home.

JOCKEY TO WATCH: TRAVIS WOLFGRAM is starting to cement himself in the Sydney jockeys’ ranks. His overall strike rate this season is 10.8 per cent but that figure jumps to 19.23 per cent when he rides at Kembla.

MURWILLUMBAH

TRAINER Matthew Dunn believes unbeaten filly Karen’s Heart has made significant and necessary progress to protect her perfect race record at Murwillumbah on Tuesday.

Karen’s Heart makes her return to racing in the Crabbe’s Creek Liquor Store Super ­Cellars Handicap (1010m), the same course and distance where she made a winning debut at her only race start in December.

It has been a happy hunting ground for Dunn, who has trained 11 winners this season on his home track — almost four times more than his next rival, Stephen Lee, who has three victories.

Dunn said that although Karen’s Heart was probably another preparation away from being at her peak, the filly was physically much stronger than last summer.

The daughter of Show A Heart is one of three runners from his stable and Dunn said Karen’s Heart had taken the next step in her career.

“I was almost not going to run her last year because she really wasn’t ready,” Dunn said. “We walked away thinking if she was able to win that she would be winning more races. She came back into the ­stable a stronger filly and we’ve given her a quiet trial ahead of her return here.

“She doesn’t need much work as she’s only a slight filly and I think she’s still a prep away from being at her peak. But she’s good enough to be winning this and I reckon that she has got a bright ­future.”

The trainer has six entries in the Murnane Mechanical Burringbar Handicap (1200m) but was happy to divulge who he thinks is the one punters need to be on.

“Fighting Belle was good on debut when finishing second and has trained on well,” Dunn said. “The step up to 1200m will suit her and she should be ­figuring in the finish.”

BEST: NOVEMBER GREY (Race 2, No. 5) Just missed a place over this track and distance last start and gets the blinkers back on here. Hasn’t won beyond 1200m but as he’s got older he’s raced more dourly and he sets up well for this.

NEXT BEST: FIGHTING BELLE (Race 3, No. 5) Did enough on debut when runner-up to suggest there was a win in her soon. The step up to 1200m looks ideal and with an ounce of luck she should be fighting out the finish.