Muslims key in 56% seats in Phase V

KOLKATA: The Bengal election is entering a crucial phase not only because Trinamool bastions go to the polls but also because Muslims are the determining factor in most of the seats here. Between Kolkata, Hooghly and South 24-Parganas, 53 seats are going to polls on Saturday - 30 of them have Muslim voters in excess of 25%. In fact, in 21 seats Muslims are 50% of the electorate.South 24-Parganas has the highest number of such constituencies - chiefly Bhangor, Mograhat, Metiabruz, Budge Budge and Canning East. Hooghly, Khanakul, Arambagh, Pandua and Champdani have significant Muslim votebase. So do Port and Ballygunge in Kolkata.
This single factor has made the fifth phase crucial to all parties in the fray.
In Bengal, there are close to 125 constituencies where the Muslim vote is a decisive factor. In 2011, the ruling Trinamool along with the Congress had won close to 95 of these seats.
In 2011 the TMC Congress combine had won 16 and Left had got only 2. In South 24 Parganas, Trinamool had swept with 26 seats while Left got only four and SUCI one.
A Muslim MP from Trinamool said that it could be "make or break" for the party in this phase. "Muslims in south Bengal are our vote bank.This phase has very high concentration of Muslim voters and it is our backyard. If even some percentage swings to the opposition, it will not augur well for our party," said the MP.
Political scientist, professor Maidul Islam feels that Trinamool has lost its monopoly over the "Muslim vote bank" in south Bengal in the last five years. "In urban areas or among Urdu-speaking Muslims, Congress has made a dent in that chunk. In rural areas it is the Left that will make inroads into this vote bank," says Islam.
He explains that the Urdu speaking Muslims are keeping in mind the "tacit understanding" between Trinamool and BJP that the Left-Congress Jote has been able to hammer home efficiently."Urdu-speaking Muslims are eyeing the 2019 elections where they think that Congress is going to be a viable alternative to NDA," says Islam.
In rural areas, Muslims have been the worst affected due to agrarian distress."Farmers are suffering because they did not receive the minimum support price for their produce," said Islam.
Samik Lahiri, who is contesting from Mahestala, said that the jote will cut into a big chunk of Trinamool's Muslim vote in the district. "Left and Congress are the only credible alternative to the communal government in West Bengal. Our secularism is not seasonal like that of the Trinamool," said Lahiri.
Hasnain Imam, a political scientist and teacher, feels that the low turnout in previous phases compared to those in 2011 also does not augur well for the ruling Trinamool. "2011 was a wave election and people came in droves to oust Left and prop up Mamata Banerjee. In all the phases till now the voter turnout has been low. This could mean that the core Trinamool voter has shrunk and not voted for it," said Imam.
Even religious figures in the state are unable to figure out which way the Muslim electorate is going. "One thing is for sure - Trinamool is suffering because votes are getting split. But it is not clear who is getting how much. Voters are keeping silent over their preferences," said Mohammed Basharat Mondal, general secretary of All Bengal Imam and Muezzin League.
Another reason the Muslim vote is crucial is because even a swing of few percentage votes can send all calculations topsy turvy. "In a bipolar fight, even a few percentage points can prove decisive.After the results you may see that there is not much gap between the vote share but the gap between the number of seats is vast," said psephologist Arindam Chatterjee.